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I just noticed something interesting with Bitcoin right now: the 50-week moving average hasn't crossed below the 100-week moving average yet. So, what does this mean?
This indicator is actually quite simple; it just looks at the short-term versus long-term price trends. When the short-term average drops below the long-term average, it’s a sign that the bear market is at its end. This has happened only three times in Bitcoin’s history since 2015. Back then, Bitcoin was at a very low level because it was seen as a failed experiment. Each time the averages crossed, it was followed by a massive rebound.
In April 2015, BTC rose from $200 to nearly $20,000 in just a few years. Then in February 2019, it increased again, and in September 2022, during the crypto crisis. Every time the averages crossed, the price hit a bottom and then surged higher. Last time, BTC reached $126K
.
Right now, we’re at $77.73K, and both averages are getting closer but haven't crossed yet. If history repeats itself, the market might still be in the early stages, and this recent rebound could just be a temporary bounce, not the start of a full-blown bull market. But thanks to the Bitcoin ETF, it might help support the price.