A few days ago, I saw someone interpret large on-chain transfers and moving between hot and cold wallets on exchanges as "smart money." Honestly, my first reaction wasn't to follow along, but to think: Could this be a prelude to a stablecoin run... If a stablecoin really crashes, the first thing to go isn't the chart, but confidence. When everyone starts to panic, even with solid reserves, they have to keep up with the pace.

I've already fallen for this once before: a new stablecoin on a bridge, with "audit reports + reserve explanations" looking quite thorough. A bunch of people in the group rushed in, but I looked for a long time and couldn’t understand how the reserves were verified or if there were limits on redemption channels... In the end, I held back and didn’t act. Sure enough, later on, it actually lost its peg a bit, on-chain everyone was rushing to exit, and transaction fees skyrocketed. At that moment, I was glad I was cautious.

My current rough method is: if I don’t understand the reserves, I don’t move. If I really need to use it, I diversify, leaving some in the place where it can be directly redeemed, and don’t put everything into the one that "looks very stable." Anyway, I’d rather miss out on some gains than stay up at night staring at the de-peg curve and feeling my heart race.