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CICC Wealth Futures: Lithium carbonate supply disruptions remain significant; lithium prices are more likely to fluctuate strongly.
Supply disruptions for lithium carbonate remain relatively numerous. Zimbabwe mines are expected to arrive earliest in mid-June, and shipment guidance for Australian mines has been lowered. On the demand side, in the second quarter of 2026 compared with the first quarter, demand rises by one step. May production schedules increased month-over-month. Inventories of lithium carbonate at material manufacturers and some battery plants are relatively shallow (within 15 days). In the next phase, the industry is expected to see a replenishment and restocking uptrend. It is expected that the probability of lithium prices trading in a range with an overall bias toward strength is relatively high, but it still is not recommended to chase the highs. (CICC Wealth Futures)