Clarity Act, facing a "decisive hurdle" in May... If delayed and prolonged, the uncertainty of approval will increase.

The future trajectory of the U.S. Digital Asset Regulatory Bill, the “CLARITY Act,” remains uncertain. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz predicts that “the bill may pass in May and be enacted into law by June.”

In a conversation with Anthony Scaramucci, Novogratz remained optimistic despite recent delays from Washington, stating that “it will ultimately pass,” while emphasizing that the CLARITY bill is a “very important” issue for both parties and the cryptocurrency market.

Senate agenda delays shake expectations… “If it doesn’t pass by mid-May, the probability will sharply decline.”

This statement was made after the U.S. Senate Banking Committee failed to set a schedule for the core process of “markup,” causing the initial expectation of passing in April to be postponed to May. Increasingly, market participants worry that the longer the bill’s schedule is delayed, the more its political priority may decline.

Internal opinions within Galaxy Digital also vary on the bill’s prospects. Research head Alex Thorn estimates a roughly 50% chance of passing within 2026, warning that “if the markup is delayed until after mid-May, the likelihood will drop sharply.” Senator Cynthia Lummis also expressed urgency, calling it “at least the last chance” to pass the CLARITY bill before 2030.

The bill’s core is “regulatory clarity”… targeting mobile wallets and tokenized markets.

The CLARITY bill aims to establish a “clear regulatory framework” for digital assets in the U.S. Industry insiders have long believed that the unclear boundary between securities and commodities leads to ongoing litigation and enforcement risks. If passed, the bill is expected to lower the barriers for projects and trading infrastructure to enter the regulatory system.

Novogratz stated, “Among the 8.5 billion people, about 5.5 billion cannot access our financial products.” He claims that cryptocurrencies can connect global users with the U.S. economy via mobile wallets. He also mentioned tokenization and discussed the potential for non-listed and listed companies like Google and SpaceX to circulate equity or revenue rights in digital asset form in the future.

Bitcoin supply pressure and institutional demand… political variables include stablecoin “yields.”

Novogratz also pointed out market-level “urgency.” A typical example is that, amid tightening Bitcoin (BTC) supply, Strategy recently purchased over 34,000 BTC in one week, far exceeding the weekly production of about 6,300 BTC. Coupled with a trend of long-term holders reducing sales, analysis suggests this creates greater room for institutional capital inflows.

However, despite bipartisan consensus, disagreements over issues like stablecoin interest and yields (i.e., yield-bearing stablecoins) are delaying the process. The market views May as a “decisive window,” with mainstream opinion suggesting that if the schedule continues to be delayed at this stage, the CLARITY bill risks further stagnation. (USD/KRW exchange rate: 1 USD = 1470.70 KRW)

Summary provided by TokenPost.ai

🔎 Market Insights - Galaxy Digital CEO Novogratz believes the CLARITY bill could be addressed in May and enacted by June, reigniting expectations to eliminate regulatory uncertainty - But delays in the Senate Banking Committee’s “markup” process have pushed back the schedule, with warnings that the bill’s momentum after mid-May may weaken, increasing market uncertainty - Compared to Bitcoin’s supply (weekly output), the tightening supply-demand dynamics caused by large buyers (such as Strategy’s large-scale purchases) heighten focus on factors promoting institutional capital inflows (regulatory clarity) 💡 Strategic Highlights - Short-term (May): Whether the Senate Banking Committee’s markup schedule is confirmed as a key initial milestone → Market volatility may increase depending on schedule announcements/delays - Focus: Consensus around “interest-yielding stablecoins” (paying interest/yields) will be a variable affecting procedural speed → Stablecoins, exchanges, and payment infrastructure sectors are sensitive to news - Mid-term (if passed): Clarifying securities/commodities boundaries could reduce compliance costs and litigation risks for projects and trading infrastructure, boosting expansion, listing, and institutional activity within the U.S. - Thematic expansion: Narratives around mobile wallets (global accessibility) and tokenization (digitalization of private/public equity and revenue rights) may re-emerge, with attention on related infrastructure (wallets, custody, tokenization platforms) 📘 Terminology Clarification - CLARITY Act: A bill aimed at establishing a “clear regulatory framework” for digital assets in the U.S. to reduce uncertainty - Markup: A key procedural step where a standing committee adjusts, amends, and votes on whether to send the bill to the full chamber for debate - Regulatory clarity: Standards for defining whether an asset is a security or commodity, and which regulatory body oversees it - Tokenization: Issuing and circulating rights such as stocks, equity, bonds, or revenue rights as blockchain-based tokens - Interest-yielding stablecoins: Stablecoins that offer interest/yields to holders (which can be a regulatory point of contention)

💡 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q. What is the CLARITY bill mentioned in this article? Why is the market paying attention to it? The CLARITY bill aims to more clearly define how the U.S. regulates digital assets (e.g., whether they are securities or commodities, what obligations are involved). Once rules are clear, companies can reduce litigation and enforcement risks, and institutional investors can more easily participate in compliant investments and activities, potentially having a significant impact on the entire market. Q. What does “if it doesn’t pass by mid-May, the probability will sharply decline” mean? The bill must pass key procedures such as the Senate Banking Committee’s “markup” (adjusting and voting on the bill text) within a set timeframe to move to the next stage. If this schedule is delayed until after mid-May, it may be sidelined by other political or legislative priorities, or due to lengthy negotiations over contentious points (like interest-yielding stablecoins), weakening the bill’s momentum. Q. Why does the article mention Bitcoin’s “supply pressure” alongside the bill? When Bitcoin’s new mining output (about 6,300 per week) is far less than the purchase volume of large buyers (e.g., Strategy’s over 34,000 BTC in one week), the circulating supply decreases, creating a “supply tightness.” In this environment, institutional capital is more likely to flow in, and the importance of “regulatory clarity” (such as the CLARITY bill) for facilitating compliant institutional participation becomes more apparent.

TP AI Notice: This article summary is generated based on TokenPost.ai’s language model. It may omit key points from the original text or differ from factual details.