Gunfire, polls, and banquet halls: Trump's new chess game for the midterm elections

This is a typical but shocking night at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner.

Approximately 2,600 people attended, Vice President Vance, FBI Director Patel, and key cabinet officials were all present, with Trump himself sitting at the main table, and the entertainment was magician Oz Pearlman. In fact, this was also Trump’s first time attending this annual event as the sitting president; he had refused to attend throughout his first term due to his strained relations with the media.

Agents protect Trump

When the shooting occurred, just minutes before the official start of the banquet hall, the Trump couple had just taken their seats at the main table when gunfire came from the security checkpoint area. 31-year-old Allen had checked in as a guest the day before, quietly bringing in a disassembled hunting rifle. At that moment, after a night of preparation, he rushed through the metal detector, armed with a shotgun, a pistol, and several knives.

CNN anchor Wolf Blitzer was standing just a few feet from the shooter; he described witnessing the shooter fire at least six times, using “a very deadly weapon.” One agent was shot, but the bulletproof vest saved his life. Allen was subsequently subdued and fell to the ground.

The attacker had previously donated to Harris

Western media investigations into Allen reveal that, based on his educational background, the 31-year-old is a typical California elite tech guy.

California Institute of Technology has an acceptance rate of only 2.3% to 3.8%, admitting only 220 to 250 students annually, with average SAT scores between 1530 and 1580. Allen earned a bachelor’s degree in mechanical engineering there in 2017, and in 2025, he obtained a master’s in computer science from California State University, Dominguez Hills. A computer science professor who taught him told the Associated Press that Allen always sat in the front row, frequently emailed questions about coursework, was gentle and polite, and was considered a good person.

Attacker Allen

After graduation, Allen worked part-time as a tutor at a tutoring organization called C2 Education, and in December 2024, he was named “Teacher of the Month,” tutoring students preparing for college entrance exams. He also developed independent games, which he sold on Steam for $1.99.

He appears to be an ordinary person with no outward signs of trouble. A 17-year-old high school student who was tutored by him told NPR: “He’s just a bit of a nerdy, smart guy.”

The multifaceted and complex nature of people is reflected in Allen.

In recent years, Allen has gradually become involved in left-wing activism in Los Angeles, while also purchasing firearms and regularly practicing at shooting ranges. His social media posts contain a large amount of anti-Trump and anti-Christian content. He participated in California’s “No Kings” protests and joined a social justice organization called “The Wide Awakes,” a name originating from the abolitionist youth movement in the 1860s that supported Lincoln’s election.

Regarding Trump’s “No Kings” protest

In October 2024, he donated $25 to the Democratic fundraising platform ActBlue, designated for Vice President Harris’s campaign. However, voter registration records show he registered as “independent” in Los Angeles County.

This background is not hard to understand. The educational environment of California’s elite tech schools, the deep blue political climate of California, and the “No Kings” protests reflecting the political atmosphere of Trump’s second term all contributed to his ideological radicalization.

His sister told agents and investigators that Allen had always been accustomed to making radical statements, constantly mentioning doing “something” to fix the world’s problems. In recent years, he frequently went to shooting ranges, storing guns at his parents’ house without their knowledge.

About ten minutes before the attack, he sent a farewell-like message via text to his family. CNN obtained the content, which shows he apologized to “parents, colleagues, students, bystanders,” and stated that his targets were “administrative officials, from the highest to the lowest, in order of priority.”

How will this shooting affect the midterm elections?

This is at least the third attack targeting Trump within two years.

Summer 2024 marked the most dramatic arc in Trump’s political narrative. At the Butler rally, an injured Trump clenched his fist, bleeding from his ear, with the American flag in the background, becoming one of the most compelling political images in recent years, once thought to have directly boosted his subsequent campaign.

But today’s political environment is completely different from 2024. About six months before the midterms, Trump’s approval ratings have fallen to the mid-30s. Polls from Reuters, AP, and others show Trump receiving low marks for handling the economy, immigration, and Iran wars. Political scientist Nolan Higdon directly states that the shooting “is unlikely to reverse the president’s declining support,” because criticism mainly stems from issues Trump cannot quickly change: Iran, economic pressures, which will persist into the midterm elections.

Nevertheless, this incident still provides Trump with significant political capital.

Trump himself responded in his usual manner to this “honor.” He said that having faced multiple assassination attempts confirms his historical significance and expressed his determination not to let danger alter his public schedule. At a press conference, he said: “When you look at those who have faced assassination attempts—successful or not—they are all big figures. Just look at those names. I have to say, I feel honored by this.”

He turned threats into legendary narratives, transforming escape into a divine destiny.

But this time, the Trump administration did not choose to direct the fire toward the Democrats. This is noteworthy. After the thwarted assassination in 2024, Trump’s camp initially blamed “incendiary rhetoric” by Democrats, shifting the blame for the climate of hatred onto opponents. However, this time, facing a shooter who had donated to Harris and participated in the “No Kings” protest, they framed it as a “lone wolf” attack.

The reason is not hard to infer: Allen’s political profile is complex enough, but the evidence chain is fragile. The mere $25 Democratic donation and his independent registration cannot withstand a serious partisan battle.

Therefore, the Trump administration has linked this shooting to policy issues that have long troubled Trump: building the White House banquet hall and funding the still-shutdown Department of Homeland Security.

Trump’s “little plan,” the chess game after the gunfire

The day after the shooting, Trump posted on Truth Social: “This would never happen in the military-grade secret banquet hall under construction at the White House. It’s not built fast enough.”

Trump believes the attack occurred at the Hilton Hotel rather than the White House itself partly because the White House Correspondents’ Dinner has always been held at the Hilton, and Reagan’s assassination attempt in 1981 also took place at the Hilton in Washington.

[Image of Reagan’s assassination scene, 1981]

In July 2025, Trump announced plans to build a 90k-square-foot “White House State Ballroom” on the original site of the East Wing, (White House State Ballroom), capable of holding 999 people, with costs escalating from an initial $200 million to $400 million.

Construction of the White House banquet hall

This $400 million project initially faced difficulties due to “excessive costs” and “destruction of historical artifacts.” But overnight, the situation reversed. Assistant Civil Division Chief Brett Shumate of the Department of Justice directly wrote to the National Trust for Historic Preservation, requesting the withdrawal of lawsuits blocking construction by Monday morning, bluntly stating: “Your lawsuit puts the lives of the president, his family, and staff at serious risk… I hope that yesterday’s narrowly averted incident finally makes you realize the absurdity of this lawsuit.”

Senator Lindsey Graham announced he would introduce legislation to authorize and fund the banquet hall, saying: “Some people think this is a vanity project. I no longer believe that. I just spoke with the president, and his first words were: ‘We must build that banquet hall, not for me, but for future presidents.’” Senator Tim Sheehy and Representative Lauren Boebert also announced they would push similar legislation. Even Democratic Senator Fetterman wrote on X that they should “drop TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome) and get the White House banquet hall built.”

This is exactly what Trump was hoping for. His other “little plan” targets the Department of Homeland Security’s budget.

Many people do not realize that the U.S. government is still partially shut down. The Department of Homeland Security has been partially closed since February 14 due to funding lapses, lasting now for 73 days.

According to the Polymarket market “How long will the DHS shutdown last?”, there is a high likelihood it will remain shut for at least another 20 days.

The background of the DHS shutdown is: in January this year, immigration enforcement officers shot and killed two American citizens during enforcement actions. The Democrats then refused to fund the DHS normally, using this as leverage to restrict immigration enforcement powers, leading to the department being closed for nearly two months, with agents working without pay.

Trump specifically pointed out this detail at the press conference after the shooting: “These are tough, reliable people who should be paid. You know, they’re not getting paid right now. The Democrats are delaying their salaries.” RNC Chair Joe Gruters was more direct, calling the shooting “an inevitable result of radical leftists normalizing political violence,” accusing Democrats of “repeatedly blocking DHS funding, preventing law enforcement agencies responsible for protecting Americans from getting the funds they need.”

Trump is no longer a challenger in 2024 but an incumbent with executive resources, so his current strategy is completely different from 2024.

The attacker Allen will appear in federal court on Monday, facing charges of using a firearm to commit violence and assaulting federal officers. Prosecutor Pirro said more charges could be added as the investigation progresses. As expected, Acting Deputy Attorney General Blanche stated that Allen is uncooperative with the investigation. It seems the political aftershocks of this case will continue.