Analysis: 3.14% of Polymarket players contribute over 30% of the returns, while 67% of losers bear all the losses.

Mars Finance reports that, according to Theblock, a new academic paper analyzing all transactions on Polymarket from 2023 to 2025 concludes that only 3.14% of accounts are defined as “skilled winners,” who can consistently accurately predict short-term price movements and final outcomes. These skilled traders, along with market makers, contributed over 30% of the platform’s total revenue. The paper also points out that only 12% of profiters belong to the high-level trading group, while about 60% of “lucky winners” turned into losses in another data sample test. Accounts classified as unlucky or poorly skilled losers account for 67% of the total, bearing all of the platform’s total losses. The paper was jointly written by Roberto Gómez-Cram, Yunhan Guo, Howard Kung from London Business School, and Theis Ingerslev Jensen from Yale University, covering 1.72 million accounts, over 210k markets, with a total trading volume of approximately $13.76 billion.