每周编辑精选 Weekly Editor's Picks（0418-0424）

The information flow is too fast; in-depth analysis articles are easily drowned out by trending topics.
The “Weekly Editor’s Picks” column extracts these valuable judgment content from the vast amount of information, helping you filter out noise, retain insights, and gain inspiration.

Macroeconomic Situation

Crossing the critical point: Price hikes are just the prelude; the oil market will face “physical supply disruptions”

“Time mismatch” is an underestimated variable by the market.

Even if the Strait of Hormuz resumes short-term navigation, the delays caused by earlier transportation disruptions will continue to erode onshore inventories over the coming weeks.
This means supply issues will not be immediately alleviated with “navigation reopening,” but will lag and be reflected in inventories and spot markets.

Against this backdrop, refinery behavior becomes a key amplifier.
If the Strait remains closed until after April, traditional oil pricing frameworks will fail.
The market will face an extreme situation close to “physical shortages”—in this state, prices are no longer effective adjustment tools, and the price ceiling loses its reference significance.

What can truly bring the market back to balance is not supply recovery, but policy-driven demand suppression similar to during the pandemic.

Investment and Entrepreneurship

Consumer Crypto Global Census: User, Revenue, and Sector Distribution

The core issue with crypto users is a geographical problem (massive real users are overlooked by the West);
Tron is the most important consumer-level public chain;
On-chain e-commerce is not viable;
Revenue and user numbers often move inversely;
The perpetual DEX battle is over, with HYPE winning.

I used AI to analyze 221 contract tokens, finally finding the only viable path for “demon coins” trading.

For demon coins, predicting start-up and “top-tapping” are both infeasible; the only viable strategy is to short during