Analyst: Bitcoin May Drop to $57,000 by October 2026 Based on 'Historical Average' Retracement

On April 27, Bitcoin investor and writer Michael Terpin stated that despite Bitcoin rising over 29% since its low of around $60,000 in February, its price could still fall to $57,000 by October 2026. Terpin’s prediction is based on a ‘historical average’ retracement of about one year from the market cycle peak to the cycle bottom, with the peak occurring in October 2025 when BTC soared above $126,000, a historical high. He mentioned that Bitcoin’s price needs to reclaim the $100,000 level for a bull market to resume, which is likely to happen after the price falls below the 200-week moving average (a dynamic and critical support level). Terpin added, ‘Reaching $100,000 this year certainly has a chance, but it is unlikely. This would require strong ETF buying, along with what Michael Saylor is already doing in Strategy, and no liquidation wave caused by a sharp decline.’ Recently, crypto assets have continued to face pressure from oil price fluctuations, the conflict in Iran, and liquidity shortages, while U.S. interest rates remain unchanged. Market analyst Nic Puckrin stated, ‘Wednesday is almost certainly Powell’s last FOMC meeting as Fed Chair. The interest rate decision is almost certain to remain unchanged.’ Crypto market analyst Matthew Hyland believes that the lack of ‘excitement or interest’ among crypto market investors in Bitcoin’s rally since February indicates that investors see it as a limited rebound, expecting a return to a downward trend. He stated on Saturday, ‘In my view, BTC is more likely to take another step down before October.’ Analysts believe that Bitcoin’s price could also drop to around $73,000 in the short term. Rekt Capital noted that if the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) continues to act as a resistance zone for Bitcoin’s price, it could also force the price to retrace to approximately $65,710.