Analyst: Bitcoin may drop to $57,000 by October 2026, based on "historical average" retracement

BlockBeats News, April 27 — Bitcoin investor and writer Michael Terpin stated that although Bitcoin has risen over 29% since the low of around $60,000 in February, its price could still fall to $57,000 by October 2026. Terpin said his prediction is based on an “average historical” retracement from market cycle top to bottom of about one year, with the cycle top occurring in October 2025, when BTC surged to a record high above $126,000.

He said that Bitcoin’s price needs to break back above $100,000 for the bull market to resume, which is likely to happen after the price falls below the 200-week moving average (a dynamic and critical support level). Terpin added, “Reaching $100,000 this year is certainly possible, but unlikely. This would require strong ETF buying, along with what Michael Saylor is already doing with Strategy, and no liquidation wave caused by sharp declines.” Recently, crypto assets have continued to face pressure from oil price fluctuations, the Iran conflict, and liquidity shortages, while US interest rates remain unchanged. Market analyst Nic Puckrin said, “Wednesday is almost certainly the last FOMC meeting with Powell as Federal Reserve Chair. The rate decision will almost certainly be on hold.”

Crypto market analyst Matthew Hyland believes that the recent Bitcoin rally since February shows a lack of “excitement or interest” among crypto investors, indicating they see it as a limited rebound expected to revert downward. He said on Saturday, “In my view, the most likely consensus outcome for BTC is to take another step down before October.” The analyst predicts that Bitcoin’s price could short-term fall to around $73,000. Rekt Capital stated that if the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) continues to act as resistance for Bitcoin’s price, it could also force a retreat to about $65,710.