Recently, I've seen people equate "the supply of stablecoins increasing" directly with "a big market move," and I get a bit serious about it: correlation does not equal causation... An increase in stablecoins could mean money coming in from off-chain, or it could just be everyone treating the blockchain as a parking lot, waiting, watching, or moving assets from other chains. ETF inflows are the same; inflow doesn't mean it's immediately heading into the crypto market, many are more about "allocating positions," and their rhythm is different from retail investors.

The wave of attention shifts driven by memes and celebrity calls is too fast; newcomers are most easily carried away by emotions, and by the time they reach the last leg, they think they're participating in the narrative... To put it plainly, first figure out whether you're buying attention or cash flow expectations.

What I fear missing the most isn't actually opportunities, but mistaking a bunch of coincidences for logic, and then believing it more and more.