#NAS100 NAS100 Market Analysis | August 7, 2026
The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) closed the August 6 U.S. session at 29,373.33, down 114.46 points (-0.39%). Despite the decline, E-Mini Nasdaq futures (September NQ contract) recovered during the Asian session to around 29,576 (+0.30%), while spot CFD prices traded near 29,523. Intraday price action ranged between 29,123 and 29,569, with trading volume reaching 1.404 billion shares, significantly below the average 9.791 billion shares, indicating relatively light participation. Over the past 52 weeks, the index has traded within a broad range of 22,841 to 30,762.
Key Price Levels
Resistance
• R3: 30,762 – Major resistance and 52-week high.
• R2: 30,000 – Critical psychological barrier.
• R1: 29,512–29,572 – Recent highs aligned with the 20-day moving average.
Current Level
• NDX Close: 29,373
• Pivot Point: 29,412 – Key intraday bull/bear dividing line.
Support
• S1: 29,052 – Strong support around the 200-day moving average.
• S2: 28,654 – Important support near the 50-day moving average.
• S3: 28,152–28,700 – Major retracement support zone.
Technical Indicator Analysis
The longer-term trend remains constructive. The 50-day (28,716), 100-day (28,614), and 200-day (29,052) moving averages continue to generate bullish signals, confirming that the broader market structure remains positive. However, the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages have shifted into sell signals, suggesting short-term corrective pressure despite the stronger long-term outlook. On the daily timeframe, the overall technical rating continues to stand at Strong Buy.
Momentum indicators present a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) at 54.6 reflects neutral-to-bullish momentum without entering overbought territory. The MACD remains positive at +193.9, supporting the continuation of the broader uptrend. However, the Stochastic Oscillator at 98.2 and Williams %R at -2.85 indicate that the market is extremely overbought, increasing the probability of a near-term pullback. Meanwhile, the ADX reading of 32.2 confirms that the trend remains intact, although momentum has started to weaken. Overall, technical indicators are neutral in the short term while the daily trend continues to favor buyers.
Primary Market Catalyst: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
The market's primary focus today is the release of the U.S. July Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report at 21:30 Beijing Time (8:30 AM ET). This is the most significant macroeconomic event of the week and is expected to set the direction for equities, cryptocurrencies, and broader financial markets.
Current market expectations call for 80,000–85,000 new jobs, compared with the previous month's 57,000, while the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%.
The importance of today's release is heightened by June's disappointing employment report, which showed only 57,000 new jobs versus expectations of 114,000, triggering a sharp sell-off across risk assets. At present, markets are pricing roughly a 55% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, while the likelihood of two additional rate hikes before year-end stands near 27%, a notable shift from earlier expectations of two rate cuts at the beginning of the year.
A stronger-than-expected NFP report would likely reinforce expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening, creating additional pressure on growth stocks, the Nasdaq, and cryptocurrencies. Conversely, a weaker or moderate employment report could ease interest rate concerns and support a recovery across risk assets.
Trading Scenarios
Scenario 1 – Bullish (Weaker or Moderate NFP)
If the employment report comes in below expectations or broadly matches a moderate forecast, easing rate-hike concerns could allow the Nasdaq 100 to rebound from the 29,200–29,300 support region. Long opportunities may be considered within the 29,200–29,400 range, targeting 29,512 resistance, followed by the important 30,000 psychological level, with a protective stop below 29,050, near the 200-day moving average.
Scenario 2 – Bearish (Strong NFP)
If payroll growth significantly exceeds 100,000, expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening could strengthen, increasing downside pressure on the Nasdaq 100. A decisive break below the 29,123 intraday low could expose the 28,654 (MA50) support level, with the next major downside target located within the 28,152–28,700 support zone.
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