DanielRomero

"Citadel says to prepare for a reload on levered bets."
Very timely. Wonder what happened with the surprise rate. Quite a change of opinion

$NBIS surging on $CRWV earnings
Can you imagine the scenes for Burry if earnings come in strong, Vineland timelines are reassured, and we get a strong market reaction?

$AMD Lisa Su today on supply constraining growth:
“As you guys know, there are a lot of things in the supply chain that are tight. We happen to be very well positioned where, depending on what quarter it is, we are the third- or fourth-largest customer at TSMC, and we’ve been a very long-time, loyal partner with them.
One of the things that has been interesting is, when Lisa speaks about this, the industry is quite good. If you give accurate forecasts and sufficient lead time, the industry is quite good at getting you supply. It is when you come and ask for stuff way underneath lead time where

The grid is congested, and data centers keep turning to on-site engine generation
HD Hyundai announced today that it will supply 1 GW of 9.6 MW HiMSEN engines for U.S. data center projects tied to hyperscalers
Including the 684 MW order announced in April, HD Hyundai has now secured 1.68 GW of disclosed U.S. data center engine orders

$MU on the advantage of being U.S.-based:
“Our understanding has been that Samsung's investments are in logic foundry, not in memory. Hynix's investments are in back-end manufacturing, assembly, packaging type of investments. Micron is the only company investing in front-end fab manufacturing in the U.S. We have Idaho 1, Idaho 2, leading-edge memory fabs coming online middle of next year. First fab, second fab, end of 2028. Then we have New York 1, and a cluster of New York fabs beyond that. We have our investments in Virginia for long life cycle technology and bringing 1-alpha DRAM into Virgi

$MU on SCAs price floors:
SCA price floors are set at a level that provides Micron with “a gross margin that is well above any prior peak in the cycles of the industry.”
Micron’s previous cyclical peak gross margin was 61% in fiscal Q4 2018
If Micron had generated a 61% gross margin last quarter, and we annualized that, annualized operating income would have been $95B
At its current market cap, Micron is trading at 10× that annualized operating income, even using a gross margin below the level implied by its SCA floors
However, the SCAs signed so far represent only 25% of Micron’s projected re

$NVDA AND WALL STREET TO FINANCE $500B OF DATA CENTERS
Apollo Global, Blackstone, BlackRock, Brookfield Asset Management, Goldman Sachs and KKR are working with Nvidia to assemble a $500 billion funding package for AI infrastructure development
The deal could be announced as soon as Monday

$AMZN Approved for The Largest Permitted Power Campus for AI Data Centers
$AMZN has been revealed as the company behind the 7.65 GW Data Center project in Pecos County, West Texas
The campus is permitted for 35 gas turbines and includes plans for 1.8 GW of battery storage and up to 750 MW of solar
Pacifico Energy will own and operate the power plant, while Amazon purchases the electricity
First power is expected in Q1 2027, with 1 GW online in 2028, a pathway to 5+ GW by 2031, and up to 7.65 GW of gas generation permitted
AWS has commitments to provide up to 5 GW of capacity to Anthropic and

Elon Musk wants to invest over $120B in Terafab
In part, to manufacture memory
I’m sure that’s because he sees memory prices dumping from today’s levels
When one of the largest consumers of memory decides to make its own memory, that tells you where the puck is going

The amount of people saying the memory trade is dead...
Where were these takes a month ago?
> Bull at the top, bear at -50%
No alpha in following sentiment
Most takes don’t even get into the numbers
Just “commodity” and “low P/E means top”
Wasn’t it a commodity in June too?

Elon Musk laid out the memory bull thesis in a nutshell on the last $SPCX earnings call:
“Memory output is increasing by around 20% per year.
Is demand increasing by 20% a year? No. Demand is increasing by 200% a year, maybe higher.
If you’ve got demand increasing much faster than supply, Economics 101 would suggest that the price increases. It does not decrease.”

$NBIS Vineland Expansion Faces Growing Opposition
Opposition has intensified, with 2,900 signatures and hundreds attending the August 5 hearing
DataOne's revised design would still emit 2.19 billion pounds of CO₂ annually, consume around 8 million gallons of water, and include a 1.5-million-gallon LNG tank
The six-hour hearing on August 5 ended without a vote or public testimony. It will resume on August 17, when the Planning Board could decide whether to approve the revised expansion and power infrastructure

US imposes a 15% tariff on polysilicon
Impacts silicon cells, silicon wafers, and finished solar modules
The Semiconductor Industry Association warned that US domestic wafer capacity cannot currently meet demand, particularly for advanced 300mm wafers

Citi says the memory pullback is a buying opportunity
Reiterates Buy rating on $SKHY, raises its 2026 and 2027 operating profit estimates by 4% and 3%, respectively, and maintains its ₩3.1M price target
Citi also expects the cycle to last longer because of LTAs

Finally!
I’ve never been to Texas
I guess there’s a first time for everything

Pretty useful chart from Bernstein on MW monetization