DanielRomero

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SK hynix at a single-digit forward P/E
$WIX at a single-digit forward P/E
Investor, pick wisely
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$AMD is experiencing weak GPU sales in China
AMD is using its CPU sales channels to promote GPUs, including through 3A systems, meaning builds that combine an AMD CPU, AMD GPU, and AMD platform
However, demand in China appears weak. Several Radeon models are selling far below their suggested prices, while GPUs in most global markets still trade at 20% to 30% premiums
For example, the RX 7650 GRE normally sells for around RMB 2,099, but some market prices have fallen to RMB 1,579, a drop of about 24%
The pressure reportedly affects the whole lineup, from the RX 7650 GRE to the RX 9060 XT and RX
AMD30.34%
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My favourite way to differentiate whether stocks are pumping for good reasons or just because of macro market dynamics/monetary supply shenanigans is to see how my preferred shitcos are doing
I think you can probably guess the conclusion
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$NBIS acquires Eigen AI
→ $IREN acquires Mirantis
$NBIS announces a Spain data center
→ $IREN acquires Nostrum sites in Spain
$NBIS rents GPUs to $MSFT
→ $IREN becomes a neocloud and buys GPUs
$NBIS promotes its cloud on SV trams
→ $IREN does the same
$NBIS gets investment from $NVDA
→ $IREN offers $NVDA purchase options for 5 years(lol)
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What stopped you from buying $NBIS at a $5B market cap 13 months ago?
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I find it absurd that $NBIS was trading at a $5B market cap when I posted this thesis
I literally wrote:
"As wild as it may sound, this could become a 10x in just 5 years, even after accounting for dilution."
It surpassed my expectations
Almost a 10x in ~1 year
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$AMD EPYC CPUs Reach Record Server Revenue Share of 46.2%
According to the latest data from Mercury Research, AMD achieved this with only a 27.4% unit share, indicating that while AMD’s CPUs do not represent nearly half of total units sold, they command much higher average selling prices than the competition.¡
That competition is primarily $INTC, still the largest CPU vendor
Intel currently holds the majority of units sold at 54.9%, down 3.4% compared to Q4 2025. We lack exact revenue share data for Intel CPUs, but given Intel’s majority in unit shipments and AMD’s near-half share of total ser
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$PENG is worth studying
- > GPU, CPU, memory, and photonics tailwinds
- > Working with sovereign AI in South Korea, Deepgram, Georgia Tech, a tier-one financial institution, Dell, NVIDIA, SK Telecom, Marvell/Celestial, and AMD
A decent existing business backing the next phase of growth
Interesting
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$NBIS acquiring two of the best performers on Artificial Analysis has more long-term implications than most people think
When compute expenses move into the trillions, even small percentage points of performance improvement can save companies dozens of billions
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Core inflation has held well, although we may see second-order effects in the coming months as higher energy costs start feeding into the rest of the economy, pushing core inflation higher while overall inflation normalizes
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Lead times for transformers now extend to 4 years
If you have access to power, whether it is on-site or, preferably, reliable, connected, and cheap power, you have a gold mine
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$AMD continues to make progress on the software
The company introduced vLLM-ATOM, a plugin designed to make major AI models run better on $AMD Instinct GPUs, including MI350 and MI400
Developers can keep using the same vLLM commands, APIs, and workflows, while ATOM works in the background to improve performance on AMD hardware, requiring no new tools or complex configurations
It also gives users instant access to AMD’s latest optimizations, including FP4 support on MI355X, rack-scale inference on MI400, fused attention, custom AllReduce, and other kernel improvements
ATOM also acts as an inn
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$IREN is now trading at less than 50% of $NBIS’ market cap
$IREN has roughly 2x the secured power and 4x the energized capacity, with higher asset ownership
$NBIS has the talent, software, and partner premium, plus equity stakes in private companies worth nearly $10B
Still, I’m not sure such a wide gap is justified
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Memory prices are getting crazier and crazier
$MU
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Investors usually fail because of one simple reason:
Inability to stick to a thesis
Just try to gauge what an industry will look like in a few years, invest your money accordingly, and remain confident in your thesis
Most people lack confidence, not skills
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I cringe every time I see someone saying a fabless semiconductor company can be a bottleneck beneficiary like $MU or $SNDK
Only physical goods can become bottlenecked. PDFs with chip designs cannot become a bottleneck
So yes, while a company like $AMD or $MRVL can benefit from bottleneck trends because they have locked capacity, or because they can become a structural second-tier beneficiary of a bottleneck, they are nowhere similar to $MU or $SNDK
$NVDA is not up so much because GPUs were a bottleneck, but because they were the best by far and could command the best ASPs. That is a very diff
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I must admit I wasn’t expecting $DGXX to sign such a good deal
$2.75M of revenue per MW per year is great
However, the colocation fee is all-in, which means it includes the cost of delivered electrical power up to the contracted IT load
That helps explain the gap versus the $1.90M per MW per year of $HUT’s River Bend deal or the $1.79M per MW per year of $CIFR’s Fluidstack deal
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Quantinuum $QNT could become one of the most interesting IPOs in recent years
Rumored $20B+ IPO valuation
$IONQ is currently valued around $18B, with 2025 revenue of $130M and 2026 revenue guidance of $265M
Quantinuum’s revenue in 2025 was only $31M
However, Quantinuum is arguably the leader from a technology standpoint
Quantinuum demonstrated 4 reliable logical qubits, using 30 physical qubits, in partnership with Microsoft, which applied its error-correction software layer on top of Quantinuum’s hardware
$IONQ has not demonstrated any logical qubits yet
Microsoft reported an 800x improvement
QNT7.09%
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DRAM Market Share Trends (by Revenue)
Source: Nomura Asset Management
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As per Reuters, hyperscalers are offering to help finance new production lines and expensive equipment, including $ASML EUV tools, for SK Hynix
However, SK Hynix is cautious because these deals could lock capacity to specific customers and force lower long-term pricing
Available capacity is essentially zero right now, meaning there is not even a small portion that can be reserved for one specific buyer
SK Hynix is expanding with its massive P&T7 fab, focused on next-gen HBM, but this facility will not be ready until 2028
DRAM makers are reportedly only able to meet around 60% to 70% of current
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