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DanielRomero

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Active for: 5.8y
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Summary of Last Month’s Earnings
▪ Memory prices are set to rise further. Hyperscalers have little choice but to pay
▪ Hyperscaler CapEx will continue increasing at least for 2027
▪ Each additional unit of compute continues to generate more revenue. AWS is fully booked and undersupplied through 2027, while demand for 2028 already looks strong
▪ Anthropic and OpenAI continue growing. As long as ARR keeps increasing, the music keeps playing
▪ Enterprise adoption of agentic AI is still in its early stages. There should be plenty of demand for all those Rubin systems once adoption accelerates
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$SPCX traded at a 15% higher market cap than $AMZN at its peak
Absurd
SPCX-3.40%
AMZN15.05%
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Yhanex:
choose coins that are definitely, definitely—just do it 😁
Andy Jassy, CEO of $AMZN
“We expect to have double the power capacity by the end of 2027 that we had in 2025, and we continue to be on that track.”
AMZN15.05%
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Andy Jassy, CEO of $AMZN
“We have so much demand right now. The lion’s share of the capacity we are adding in 2027 is largely reserved, and quite a bit of our 2028 capacity has already been reserved.”
AMZN15.05%
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Andy Jassy, CEO of $AMZN
“We are still in the relatively early stages of understanding how much demand there is going to be for AI.”
AMZN15.05%
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Andy Jassy, CEO of $AMZN
“We now believe we will spend approximately $220 billion in cash CapEx in 2026. The higher cost of memory is pushing this number up from our prior estimate of approximately $200 billion.”
AMZN15.05%
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Andy Jassy, CEO of Amazon
“We expect to have double the power capacity by the end of 2027 that we had in 2025, and we continue to be on that track.”
AMZN15.05%
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July felt like one big campaign about the risks of leverage
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Leopold is great at spotting tech trends
However, the stock market isn’t driven solely by earnings, tech, and potential
There are share price swings nobody can see coming
The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, and he didn't account for that
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In a sea of celebrations,
$META is down 9%
META3.23%
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So Leopold and his fiancée were already preparing for the wedding back in March
Safe to assume it’s planned for the next few months
I wonder whether Ken Griffin will be invited
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This explains a lot
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Inflation data is very favorable for a rebound in the markets. The trend supports rate cuts, as long as the war in Iran allows oil prices to come back down
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index increased 3.7% in June from a year earlier, following a 4.1% increase in May. That marked the slowest annual pace in three months
The core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, rose 3.3% over the past twelve months, down from 3.4% last month and matching the levels seen in March and April
Meanwhile, personal income rose 0.2% in June. This growth was led by increases in compe
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Calling yourself Situational Awareness while going bazooka on leverage being up a bazillion % YTD is pure poetry
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This is insane
Leopold really did get liquidated
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Samsung’s earnings call couldn’t possibly be more bullish
Samsung Electronics Memory EVP Jaejune Kim:
▪ “Despite our efforts to increase production, our customers’ demand is outgrowing our supply.”
▪ “Inventory levels for both DRAM and NAND are significantly low.”
▪ “Additional demand for server DRAM, SSDs, and HBM is far exceeding the moderation in mobile and PC demand.”
▪ “We are witnessing robust demand not only for AI servers, but also for general computing servers.”
▪ “Looking forward, we expect this trend to accelerate further.”
▪ “Available supply across the industry remains significant
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The Financial Times with a low blow on Leopold:
“Situational Awareness has operated with only four investment professionals and a total of eight employees. Aschenbrenner had no prior trading experience before starting the fund.”
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$META net income is cratering
The trend has clearly broken once you account for the one-off in Q3 2025
One of the reasons is hardware depreciation, which is up 45% YoY compared with 28% YoY revenue growth
META3.23%
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How is $META still burning $18B annualized on Reality Labs?
You could probably fund 10 separate companies with that amount and have them achieve the same results
The inefficiency of large corporations
META3.23%
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$META doesn’t want to provide 2027 capex guidance.
Which makes all the sense in the world
It wouldn’t be normal to provide guidance so far in advance in such a dynamic supply chain
Nobody knows what the credit markets will look like in 2027 either
I’m sure $META would love to keep breaking capex records, but that doesn’t depend solely on its own decisions
META3.23%
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