DanielRomero

Terafab has started construction
Insane speed

Jukan does a great job but the timing to capitulate was just SPOT ON

$AMD to raise as much as $5 billion through a debt offering, according to Bloomberg
AMD plans to use the proceeds for general corporate purposes, including potentially repaying existing debt, according to a company filing. The company has $875 million of bonds maturing next month

$SNDK calling a 75% operating margin sustainable has to be one of the most bullish memory datapoints you can see

What a day for $NBIS
+34% is crazy

One important aspect of the $NBIS call:
The shift towards short-term contracts
While hyperscaler contracts are a great financial bedrock, to extract the maximum upside, short-term contracts are more profitable
This has been $NBIS's strategy since the company went public
> In early calls, they said they wanted "hyperscaler contracts to survive if a neocloud winter comes."
What does that mean?
If you rely on small companies to fill up your capacity, these companies are the first to go under if there's a recession or AI downcycle
The company wanted to secure its future by signing profitable deal

$NBIS COMMENTS ON VINELAND
"To date, we have delivered all capacity tranches to Microsoft under contract, including two tranches over the past month."
Now waiting for the earnings call

$NBIS Key insights
ACV per MW jumped from $12M to over $20M for Q2 deals and over $40M for Q3 short-term deals
Nebius signed four Q2 deals averaging over $1B each, with prepayments covering 50–60% of capex and an estimated 22-month payback period
AI Cloud adjusted EBITDA margin reached 50%, up from 45% in Q1 and 24% in Q4
Year-end contracted power guidance increased from over 4 GW to 5 GW
Nebius ended Q2 with $8B in cash and secured $775M of asset-backed financing at SOFR + 2.5%

$NBIS Just Reported
The website is down, but we still got the numbers
🟢 Revenue: $582.3M vs. $574.7M est. (+1.3% beat)
🟢 Adjusted EBITDA: $236.2M vs. $173.1M est. (+36.5% beat)
🟢 Adjusted EBITDA margin: 40.6% vs. 30.1% est. (+10.5 pp)
🟢 Adjusted EBIT: -$23.5M vs. -$202.0M est. (loss 88.4% narrower)
🟢 Adjusted EPS: -$0.12 vs. -$0.70 est. (loss 83.1% narrower)
A huge profitability beat

GPU shortages are easing
Power is becoming the tighter bottleneck
Speaking at Delta Electronics’ Sustainable AI Summit, Wistron CTO Shen Ching-Yao said GPU lead times have shortened significantly, with orders now generally requiring around six months of advance planning. Available electricity has become the more important constraint on AI data center deployment
Delta itself estimates that U.S. data centers could require 44 GW of additional power by 2028, while the grid is expected to add only 25 GW, a roughly 40% shortfall
Korea shows where this is heading. The Yongin semiconductor cluster al

The whole “Wow, A100s still have economic value” thing...
Well, no shit.
It was the state-of-the-art system until 2023, with 80GB of HBM2e, 2 TB/s of memory bandwidth, and 312 TFLOPS of FP16 Tensor Core compute
No shit it still has economic value, the question is how much

Why is everyone going crazy over $CRWV signing a contract for A100s when we don't even know the pricing?
If pricing is 1% of what it was at release, then it's pretty much still an obsolete asset
That doesn't mean it doesn't have economic value, but you need to assess it on a relative basis
Of course, an A100 will always have economic value. It has 80GB of HBM2 for starters
It's a powerful system as long as you don't compare it with later generations, and it still has computational value
But that doesn't mean it warrants GPU depreciation schedules being extended to 9 years (from its 2020 releas

"Citadel says to prepare for a reload on levered bets."
Very timely. Wonder what happened with the surprise rate. Quite a change of opinion

$NBIS surging on $CRWV earnings
Can you imagine the scenes for Burry if earnings come in strong, Vineland timelines are reassured, and we get a strong market reaction?

$AMD Lisa Su today on supply constraining growth:
“As you guys know, there are a lot of things in the supply chain that are tight. We happen to be very well positioned where, depending on what quarter it is, we are the third- or fourth-largest customer at TSMC, and we’ve been a very long-time, loyal partner with them.
One of the things that has been interesting is, when Lisa speaks about this, the industry is quite good. If you give accurate forecasts and sufficient lead time, the industry is quite good at getting you supply. It is when you come and ask for stuff way underneath lead time where

The grid is congested, and data centers keep turning to on-site engine generation
HD Hyundai announced today that it will supply 1 GW of 9.6 MW HiMSEN engines for U.S. data center projects tied to hyperscalers
Including the 684 MW order announced in April, HD Hyundai has now secured 1.68 GW of disclosed U.S. data center engine orders