BabyGi

The Fed’s moves to support the economy have become very clear. The latest data showed overall inflation falling to 3.4% and core inflation declining to 2.5%, combined with the previously weak employment data, making a September rate cut almost certain.
Next, we’ll continue keeping a close eye on these sectors⬇️
▶️Macro and U.S. stocks
The tightest liquidity cycle has passed. U.S. stocks will likely see a short-term rebound driven by rate-cut expectations, benefiting technology and growth sectors.
But in the mid-to-late stages, the market will quickly shift its focus back to fundamentals. If s

Before tonight’s CPI release, the most dangerous thing for the market isn’t the data—it’s how extreme positioning has become
CTA trend-following funds have pushed bond shorts to historic highs, effectively turning the market into a pressure cooker
1. Extremely asymmetric risk
There is little room for shorts to keep driving prices lower, but as long as CPI comes in slightly lower or core inflation shows even a hint of cooling, it will immediately trigger a short squeeze. The heavily clustered shorts will have no choice but to aggressively buy back Treasuries to close positions, causing bond pr

U.S. stocks surged last week, prompting many to ask: has AI trading really come roaring back?
Actually, it’s nowhere near that simple. A closer look at the market shows that what it was really trading last week was the simultaneous easing of oil-price and interest-rate pressures
A temporary easing of tensions in the Middle East drove oil prices sharply lower, while weaker nonfarm employment sharply reduced the Fed’s urgency to raise rates. With more than 80% of companies still providing earnings support, the market did not price in a recession, but instead naturally began trading on the prospe

Strategy selling BTC, Trump Media’s losses, and the core reason behind the crypto market’s retreat is not price, but a change in the funding narrative
Strategy has started selling BTC, Trump Media posted a $238 million loss in Q2, and Grayscale withdrew some crypto ETF applications
The market was previously driven by three types of narratives
Institutions continued buying BTC, Trump brought expectations around crypto policy, and altcoin ETFs attracted capital
But now investors are reassessing whether these narratives can actually generate long-term cash flow
The biggest significance

Turn a competitor into your own meal without spending a penny—have you ever seen a move this slick?
Recently, SK hynix put on exactly such a show. On the surface, Toshiba’s sale of Kioxia shares changed the shareholder structure, with Bain’s SPC2 becoming the nominal largest shareholder with a 14.19% stake. But because SK hynix fully subscribed to SPC2’s convertible bonds eight years ago, it naturally became Kioxia’s de facto hidden largest shareholder
🪁 A shrewd infiltration play
When Toshiba sold its storage business, antitrust regulators in various countries were watching closely, while Ja

Have you heard that Apple has gone to test CXMT’s chips? It may look like merely finding a backup supplier, but beneath the surface, it is actually Cook’s shrewd calculation amid soaring memory prices
1. Apple is using CXMT as leverage to push down prices $AAPL
CXMT’s current capacity would make it difficult to meet a significant share of Apple’s global supply needs, but as long as it passes testing, Apple can regain bargaining power with Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron. Using it only in devices sold domestically can also mitigate some of the risks $SKHY $MU
2. Apple can only buy standar

Intel plans to expand its stock offering to raise approximately $20 billion
🤔 $INTC is suddenly looking to raise $20 billion from U.S. stocks, and Wall Street is actually scrambling to buy in. What exactly is this old-line giant planning?
The company originally only planned to raise $15 billion through a stock offering, but demand surged directly to $100 billion. Intel simply went with the flow and raised the offering size to $20 billion, pricing it at around $95 per share, equivalent to a discount of roughly 6.5%
Although the share dilution exceeded 3% and the stock price fell nearly 5% whe

Is the second round of the AI rally here?
U.S. stocks staged a clear recovery last week, with the S&P 500 rising 3.58% for the week, the Nasdaq gaining 5.19%, and the PHLX Semiconductor Index surging 9.24%
Many people will ask: Is the AI rally back? I don't think we can draw such a simple conclusion yet. In the previous round of AI gains, the market was trading on one core narrative: NVIDIA's GPUs were selling like hotcakes
But what the market wants to see now is the second layer of logic: Has AI money actually started flowing through the entire industry chain? In other words, has it begun exp

The BIP-110 proposal was ignored because, plain and simple, changing Bitcoin’s rules is too difficult. Any proposal that tries to interfere with consensus through hard restrictions is doomed to fail in the face of hash power and the community.
🪁 Core views:
1. Stay neutral and let the market decide. As long as sufficient fees are paid, the network should not judge which data is spam. If inscriptions can be blocked today, other transactions can be blocked tomorrow. Besides, it cannot be technically prevented either: once mainnet fees become more expensive, low-value data will naturally be push

The current rally in U.S. stocks is indeed ferocious. The S&P 500 Index just closed around 7,757 on Friday, surging more than 3.5% for the week, while $SPY also hit a new high. At this pace, Tom Lee’s 8,000-point target is now less than 3% away and no longer a pipe dream
This rebound has mainly been driven by better-than-expected earnings and rising expectations for interest-rate cuts, with options capital adding fuel to the fire and creating a self-reinforcing bullish market
🤔 However, several key points are worth considering next
▶️Consolidation after the surge
The 8,000 level is a highly

This time, nonfarm payrolls fell by 23k, while the previous two months were revised down by more than 100k. The signal that the job market is cooling is indeed very clear. However, the decline in the unemployment rate to 4.1% was mainly due to a drop in the labor force participation rate, not because employment actually strengthened.
I think the market is now stuck in a very awkward position.
The negative nonfarm payrolls figure has shattered the narrative of strong employment, and the lagging pressure from high interest rates is beginning to show. But the market still does not dare to bet dir

Employment is cooling, raising expectations for a September Fed rate cut?
The U.S. labor market is sending an increasingly clear signal: the economy is cooling, but has not stalled
ADP private employment increased by only 44k in July, below market expectations and marking one of the weaker levels in recent months. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims remained near 200k, with no significant deterioration
Companies are starting to reduce hiring, but have not begun large-scale layoffs. This is actually the situation the Fed most wants to see
Over the past two years, the Fed has been concerned that e

The U.S. dollar has rebounded recently, posting its strongest single-day performance in nearly two weeks. Is the market betting on the dollar again?
This rally is essentially the result of the market readjusting its expectations for Fed rate cuts. U.S. Treasury yields have risen, while safe-haven funds have flowed back into the dollar
The market had previously been betting on rapid rate cuts
Rising rate-cut expectations → falling U.S. Treasury yields → pressure on the dollar
Now it has become:
Delayed rate cuts → rates staying higher for longer → rising U.S. Treasury yields → dollar rebound
Ho

There are no enemies in life
Everyone is a teacher
Either you gain
Or you learn
There are no failures in life
Either you succeed
Or you grow
We must not let anyone or anything trouble us
Allow everything to happen
Everything that happens ultimately benefits me
No path in life is ever walked in vain
If you get it right, be grateful
If you get it wrong, gain wisdom
So, sisters,
Think a little less, do a little more
Only then can you know the answer

💥 The precious metals market is rallying again, with gold and silver both rising as the bulls unleash their full firepower
Spot gold $XAU has decisively broken above the $4,300-per-ounce level and is currently trading at $4,302.23, up 1.30% on the day. Spot silver $XAG is even more aggressive, breaking directly above $60 and surging more than 3.3% in a single day. Benchmark gold ETF GLD is also climbing in U.S. premarket trading
The sharp drop in crude oil has eased inflation concerns, and the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike has essentially been ruled out. Market funds are ra