Tonight at 8:30 PM, the CPI will be released.

This is the most worth paying attention to data since 2025, in my opinion.
The expected annual rate is 3.7%, close to a three-year high, but the number itself is not the most critical.
The key is that after it’s released, the market will need to reprice the story of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates.
$BTC Now at $81,228, it has been sideways for over 36 hours.
Open interest is around $8.2 billion, the price is stagnant but the positions are accumulating, a typical wait-for-news situation.
The market is waiting, and I am waiting too.
I have prepared for both scenarios:
Below 3.7% → Expectation of rate cuts returns, risk appetite rebounds, BTC has a chance to directly attack $83K-$85K, which is the scenario I look forward to more.
Above expectations → Rate hike delay, dollar strengthens, $80K support is tested again.
This level, $BTC has already withstood once, but if CPI exceeds expectations + the new Fed chair signals hawkishness at the same time, the two variables stacking together could put downward pressure.
It feels like the market has already priced in some bad news.
Funding rates are slightly negative, the long-short ratio favors the bears, but the price has not really dropped.
In this structure, if the CPI data isn’t that bad, the rebound could be faster than expected.
But I won’t build a heavy position before the data is out; I’ll wait for the news to settle before acting—it's never too late.
Not an ad, not investment advice, DYOR.