CPI just came out~3.8%—higher than the expected 3.7%

0.1 percentage point doesn’t sound like much, but it’s the highest since May 2023. Inflation isn’t that it can’t go down—it just can’t go down anymore.
My take: 🤔
First, the market’s reaction to CPI is more calm than expected. $BTC only dropped about 1%, with no panic sell-off. This shows that the buy/support around $80K is real—but it also shows the market has already priced in the bad news.
Second, what truly worries me isn’t today’s 0.1%, but the trend. 3.6% → 3.7% → 3.8%—rising for three straight months. This isn’t just one-month noise; it’s a reversal of direction. If PPI and employment data keep running hot, and inflation re-accelerates, once that narrative is priced in, it won’t be just a BTC pullback.
Third, Burry has cleared out + inflation is above expectations + NVDA earnings are in two weeks. With all three stacking together, this is not the time to blindly bottom-fish. I’d rather wait until the direction is clear before entering, than add positions in the fog.
But on the flip side—what if 3.8% is the peak of this inflation rebound? What if the Fed still finds opportunities to cut a rate in the second half of the year? Then this kind of pullback might just be the dip to catch the next ride.
I don’t bet on the direction—I just wait for signals.
Do you think this CPI beat is temporary noise, or the start of a trend reversal?
Not an advertisement, not investment advice. DYOR.