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#美PPI创两年半新高 U.S. May PPI Year-over-Year Rises 6.5%, Reaching a Two-and-a-Half Year High, Driven Mainly by Soaring Energy Prices
Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday show that the Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 1.1% month-over-month in May, surpassing market expectations of 0.7%; the year-over-year increase reached 6.5%, the highest since November 2022. This data indicates that inflationary pressures at the wholesale level are continuing to build.
Excluding food and energy, core PPI rose 0.4% month-over-month, slightly below the market forecast of 0.5%, showing that rising fuel prices are the main driver of current inflation burdens. Further excluding food, energy, and trade services, core PPI increased by 0.8% month-over-month, the largest single-month increase since March 2022; year-over-year, it rose 5.1%, the highest since October 2022.
Structurally, nearly 80% of the PPI increase came from a 2.8% surge in prices for final demand goods, the highest level recorded since December 2009. Of this, 80% was attributed to a 10.7% spike in energy prices. Wholesale gasoline prices jumped 23.4% in a single month, becoming the most significant contributing factor. On the services side, portfolio management fees increased 4.8% month-over-month in May, benefiting from a strong stock market performance, and also contributed significantly.
One day before this data was released, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that due to the Iran war causing energy prices to soar, the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.2% year-over-year. However, on a month-over-month basis, core CPI increased only 0.2%, suggesting that inflationary shocks are not as severe as the surface numbers imply.
Analysts point out that the current inflation situation may lead the Federal Reserve to remain on hold in the foreseeable future. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its latest interest rate decision next Wednesday, with market pricing indicating nearly a 100% probability of holding rates steady. Traders expect no rate cuts this year, while the likelihood of a rate hike exceeds 60%, most likely to occur in December.
Earlier that day, the European Central Bank voted to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to curb soaring inflation. In contrast, few Federal Reserve officials have expressed similar tightening intentions; they favor a patient approach, observing whether energy supply shocks will subside and whether inflation can return to the 2% target level.