#每周来晒 #MU PCE cools, Micron earnings beat expectations—how should we trade US stocks going forward?
Last night's US stock market gave a classic signal: the macro backdrop was not bad, AI was strong, yet the indexes did not celebrate.
The Dow fell, the S&P was weak, and the Nasdaq edged higher, showing that the market is no longer simply trading “good news,” but weighing two things: inflation has fallen, but the economy remains strong; AI is hot, but opportunities are becoming more concentrated.
August PCE rose 3.4% YoY, while core PCE rose 3.0% YoY and 0.2% MoM, all below expectations, and short-end rates fell alongside rate-hike expectations. But consumer spending rose 0.9% MoM, economic resilience remains, and long-end rates remain under pressure.
What the market is really worried about is this: if the economy stays strong, when will the Fed have room to pivot? Funds are therefore clustering around certainty—AI computing power, cloud, data centers, semiconductors, and a handful of platform companies. This is structural crowding, not a broad-based rally.
I. Micron wins on pricing, not volume
Micron's earnings report last night brought the story down to orders.
Fourth-quarter revenue was $54.23 billion, up 379% YoY, with full-year revenue at $133.188 billion; the midpoint of next-quarter revenue guidance was $61.5 billion, while adjusted EPS guidance was $38.15, both above expectations.
The source of profits is even more important: DRAM revenue was $39.8 billion, accounting for 73% of total revenue, with prices surging QoQ while shipments rose only by the mid-single digits—this is price increases, not volume growth.
Core data center revenue was $18 billion, up 56% QoQ, with a 90% gross margin. Most of HBM capacity for 2027 has already been locked in, while remaining performance obligations under long-term agreements are approximately $150 billion.
The AI trade is not about a single GPU, but about who has pricing power across the entire computing-power chain. Yet Micron did not surge after hours, pulling back after an initial jump and ultimately gaining less than 1%.
The reason is simple: it has already more than tripled this year, so good news had been priced in early; gross-margin guidance of 86.25% was slightly below expectations, and management also said price increases would moderate. The upcycle remains intact, but the market has already begun asking: how long can this strong cycle last?
II. Platforms are competing for distribution; space remains an option
Google's performance last night looked like the “new king,” representing another track. Search, YouTube, and Android are the entry points, while Cloud and its in-house TPU form a closed loop.
In the second half of the model race, whoever can bring costs down and embed models into products users open every day will have thicker cash flow. Regulation remains a discount on valuation.
Space, by contrast, is the comparison group. Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile have high elasticity, but cash flow is still far off. With rates above 5%, the longer the duration, the greater the pain.
The advice for everyone is: Micron is about orders, while space is an option; they should not be treated as the same position.
III. Friday's nonfarm payrolls are the real pricing switch
ADP showed that private-sector employment increased by 90,000 in September, above expectations of approximately 70,000, while hourly earnings were still up 3.2% YoY. If Friday's nonfarm payrolls and hourly earnings are both strong, long-end rates will have further room to rise, and high-valuation growth stocks will remain under pressure; if employment cools moderately, the market will resume trading the soft-landing narrative. Headcount determines the narrative, while hourly earnings determine whether the Fed dares to pause.
In terms of execution, watch nonfarm payrolls first, then act.
If the data are strong, do not chase the indexes; if the data cool, add to computing-power chains with pricing power. Storage and data centers are preferable to space themes. Micron has validated demand and remains reasonably valued, but be cautious about chasing highs.
Finally, wishing everyone successful trading and a happy National Day holiday.🎉$MU
Last night's US stock market gave a classic signal: the macro backdrop was not bad, AI was strong, yet the indexes did not celebrate.
The Dow fell, the S&P was weak, and the Nasdaq edged higher, showing that the market is no longer simply trading “good news,” but weighing two things: inflation has fallen, but the economy remains strong; AI is hot, but opportunities are becoming more concentrated.
August PCE rose 3.4% YoY, while core PCE rose 3.0% YoY and 0.2% MoM, all below expectations, and short-end rates fell alongside rate-hike expectations. But consumer spending rose 0.9% MoM, economic resilience remains, and long-end rates remain under pressure.
What the market is really worried about is this: if the economy stays strong, when will the Fed have room to pivot? Funds are therefore clustering around certainty—AI computing power, cloud, data centers, semiconductors, and a handful of platform companies. This is structural crowding, not a broad-based rally.
I. Micron wins on pricing, not volume
Micron's earnings report last night brought the story down to orders.
Fourth-quarter revenue was $54.23 billion, up 379% YoY, with full-year revenue at $133.188 billion; the midpoint of next-quarter revenue guidance was $61.5 billion, while adjusted EPS guidance was $38.15, both above expectations.
The source of profits is even more important: DRAM revenue was $39.8 billion, accounting for 73% of total revenue, with prices surging QoQ while shipments rose only by the mid-single digits—this is price increases, not volume growth.
Core data center revenue was $18 billion, up 56% QoQ, with a 90% gross margin. Most of HBM capacity for 2027 has already been locked in, while remaining performance obligations under long-term agreements are approximately $150 billion.
The AI trade is not about a single GPU, but about who has pricing power across the entire computing-power chain. Yet Micron did not surge after hours, pulling back after an initial jump and ultimately gaining less than 1%.
The reason is simple: it has already more than tripled this year, so good news had been priced in early; gross-margin guidance of 86.25% was slightly below expectations, and management also said price increases would moderate. The upcycle remains intact, but the market has already begun asking: how long can this strong cycle last?
II. Platforms are competing for distribution; space remains an option
Google's performance last night looked like the “new king,” representing another track. Search, YouTube, and Android are the entry points, while Cloud and its in-house TPU form a closed loop.
In the second half of the model race, whoever can bring costs down and embed models into products users open every day will have thicker cash flow. Regulation remains a discount on valuation.
Space, by contrast, is the comparison group. Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile have high elasticity, but cash flow is still far off. With rates above 5%, the longer the duration, the greater the pain.
The advice for everyone is: Micron is about orders, while space is an option; they should not be treated as the same position.
III. Friday's nonfarm payrolls are the real pricing switch
ADP showed that private-sector employment increased by 90,000 in September, above expectations of approximately 70,000, while hourly earnings were still up 3.2% YoY. If Friday's nonfarm payrolls and hourly earnings are both strong, long-end rates will have further room to rise, and high-valuation growth stocks will remain under pressure; if employment cools moderately, the market will resume trading the soft-landing narrative. Headcount determines the narrative, while hourly earnings determine whether the Fed dares to pause.
In terms of execution, watch nonfarm payrolls first, then act.
If the data are strong, do not chase the indexes; if the data cool, add to computing-power chains with pricing power. Storage and data centers are preferable to space themes. Micron has validated demand and remains reasonably valued, but be cautious about chasing highs.
Finally, wishing everyone successful trading and a happy National Day holiday.🎉$MU
