SoominStar

CARDS/USDT is attempting a steady recovery after finding local support around 0.1101. The price is holding above the short-term moving averages on the 4H chart, indicating a potential build-up for another move toward key resistance levels.
CARDS/USDT Spot Trade Setup
Trade Analysis
* Current Price: 0.1349
* 24h High / Low: 0.1385 / 0.1262
* Key Drivers: Price is holding strong above MA5 (0.1320), MA10 (0.1330), and MA20 (0.1281) on the 4H timeframe following a bounce off the local floor.
Trade Setup
* Entry Zone: 0.1280 - 0.1345
* Target 1: 0.1450
* Target 2: 0.1600
* Target 3: 0.1800
* Stop Loss: 0.1250 (Below local consolidation support)
> Keep risk managed tight. Look for clean entries near the moving average support or scale in cautiously.
>
#GUSDYieldRisesto3.8% #FedHoldsRatesSteady #WarshReaffirms2%InflationTarget

#SPCX
Company Overview and Business Profile
SpaceX trades on NASDAQ under the ticker SPCX after completing the largest IPO in market history on June 12, 2026, raising $75 billion at $135 per share, valuing the company at approximately $1.75 trillion. Led by Elon Musk, SpaceX operates three core businesses: Starlink (Connectivity), Launch Services, and Starship Exploration.
The S-1 filing also included xAI and X (formerly Twitter) as common-control transactions, boosting reported revenue compared with standalone SpaceX operations. Total 2025 revenue reached $18.67 billion, up 33% from 2024, but the company reported a GAAP net loss of $4.9 billion and an operating loss of $2.59 billion after spending $20.7 billion in capital expenditures. Q1 2026 revenue was $4.69 billion, reflecting only 15% YoY growth, while quarterly capex reached $10.1 billion, highlighting the company's aggressive investment strategy.
Business Segments
Starlink remains the company's only profitable division. It generated $11.4 billion in 2025 revenue, representing 61% of total sales and nearly 69% in Q1 2026. Operating profit reached approximately $4.4 billion, with EBITDA margins close to 63%. Subscribers doubled from 5 million to 10.3 million across 164 countries.
However, Starlink's average revenue per user declined from about $99 per month in 2023 to the mid-$60s by early 2026. Lower pricing has accelerated subscriber growth but reduced profitability per customer.
Meanwhile, the Launch and Exploration divisions continue operating at a loss as Starship development consumes significant capital without meaningful commercial revenue.
Successful Starship deployment could dramatically reduce launch costs and unlock entirely new markets, but continued delays increase financial pressure.
Current Price Action
SPCX trades around $116.11, roughly 14% below its IPO price and almost 48% below its post-IPO peak. The stock debuted at $161, surged above 40% during its first week, then entered a prolonged correction.
Recently it declined during 8 of the last 10 trading sessions, losing approximately 20.8% over ten days. Recent trading ranged between $111.40 and $116.74, reflecting elevated volatility.
Technical indicators remain bearish, although a doji candle with a long lower shadow near $110 suggests buyers are attempting to defend support.
Support Levels
$110 is the immediate support and has repeatedly held on closing prices despite brief intraday breaks.
The next major support sits at the psychological $100 level, where many long-term investors may become buyers. Historical IPO drawdown patterns also point toward approximately $104.
If selling accelerates below $100, the next important support lies in the $90–93 range.
Morningstar's estimated fair value of $62 represents a long-term valuation estimate rather than an immediate trading target.
Resistance Levels
Immediate resistance appears between $120 and $123.
Above that, the IPO price of $135 becomes the next major hurdle. Reclaiming this level would significantly improve market sentiment.
The $175.50 area is especially important because trading above this level activates an additional 455.8 million-share lock-up release, creating potential selling pressure. Strong resistance also exists around $190–200, the stock's previous highs.
Short Interest and Short Squeeze Potential
Approximately 206 million shares are currently sold short, representing nearly 32% of the public float and around $25 billion in bearish positions. This has increased nearly 400% since the IPO.
The short-interest ratio stands near 2.2 days to cover, meaning a positive earnings surprise could force rapid buying by short sellers.
Cathie Wood's ARK Invest appears positioned for this possibility, while institutional bears argue the valuation remains too expensive given current fundamentals. Elon Musk has repeatedly stated that short sellers "won't survive," echoing Tesla's history, although SpaceX's financial profile differs significantly today.
Lock-Up Expiration
The biggest structural risk remains the August 6 lock-up expiration, only two days after Q2 earnings.
Around 911.5 million shares worth roughly $116 billion become eligible for sale, exceeding today's public float value.
Additional tranches unlock throughout August, September, and October, potentially increasing the freely tradable float dramatically. By early December, roughly 40% of total shares could be publicly tradable, while Elon Musk's holdings remain locked until mid-2027.
This anticipated increase in supply explains much of the current selling pressure.
Analyst Outlook
Wall Street maintains a Moderate Buy rating based on 38 analysts, including 4 Strong Buy, 24 Buy, 9 Hold, and 1 Sell ratings.
The average 12-month price target is approximately $230.50, implying nearly 98% upside from current levels. Targets range from $62 (Morningstar) to $800 (Raymond James).
Bullish forecasts assume Starlink, Starship, orbital computing, and government contracts drive explosive long-term growth. Bears argue that a valuation exceeding 35–40x sales remains difficult to justify given ongoing losses.
Trading Strategy
The August 4 earnings report and August 6 lock-up expiration will likely determine SPCX's near-term direction.
If $110 continues holding, a rebound toward $120–123 is possible. A decisive breakdown increases the probability of a move toward $100.
Traders considering long positions may gradually accumulate between $110–115 with risk management below $105, while more conservative investors may wait closer to $100.
Strong earnings, accelerating Starlink growth, or improved guidance could trigger a meaningful short squeeze. Weak results combined with lock-up selling could accelerate downside pressure.
Longer term, reclaiming $135 would improve technical momentum, while sustained strength above $175 would depend on absorbing new share supply. A move back toward $200+ requires successful Starship commercialization, continued Starlink expansion, and improving fundamentals.
How High Can SPCX Go?
In the most bullish scenario, a strong earnings beat combined with short covering could quickly lift SPCX toward $150–175. Moving beyond $175.50 becomes more difficult because additional shares enter the market.
A return to $200 requires meaningful operational progress, while targets above $300 depend on multi-year execution in Starship, direct-to-cell communications, orbital computing, and defense contracts.
Raymond James' $800 target represents an aggressive long-term scenario requiring SpaceX to dominate global orbital infrastructure.
On the downside, continued Starship delays, faster ARPU declines, or overwhelming lock-up selling could push the stock toward $60–75.
Overall, the most realistic trading range for the next 3–6 months appears to be $90–150, with volatility driven primarily by earnings, lock-up events, and overall market sentiment.
@Gate_Square

#ON
ON Market Analysis: Is a 40% Rally the Next Target?
ON is currently trading at 0.3101, and the chart is showing a healthy consolidation after recent volatility. Price is moving in a tight range, which often signals accumulation before the next major trend. From the current level, a move to 0.3250 represents a gain of about 4.8%, while reaching 0.3400 would deliver nearly 9.6% upside. If buyers successfully push above the major resistance at 0.3600, the rally could extend to 0.4200 (35.4%) and even 0.4500, representing almost 45% upside from today's price.
The strongest support remains around 0.3000, only 3.3% below the current price. If this level fails, the next buying zones are 0.2900 (6.5% downside) and 0.2750 (11.3% downside). As long as ON continues holding above 0.3000, the overall market structure remains constructive and buyers retain the advantage.
Momentum indicators continue to support a balanced outlook. The RSI is around 52, suggesting the market is neutral with a slight bullish bias. A move above 60 RSI would strengthen bullish momentum, while an RSI below 45 could indicate increasing selling pressure. Trading volume will be the key confirmation factor. A breakout supported by higher volume would significantly improve the probability of reaching higher targets.
Market sentiment remains cautiously bullish.
Many traders believe ON is building a base before its next major move rather than entering a prolonged downtrend. Short-term traders are watching for a breakout above resistance, while longer-term investors continue monitoring support levels for accumulation opportunities.
The current trading strategy favors patience instead of chasing price. Buying near support or after a confirmed breakout provides a better risk-to-reward setup than entering during random price fluctuations.
Current Price: 0.3101
Support: 0.3000 | 0.2900 | 0.2750
Resistance: 0.3250 | 0.3400 | 0.3600
RSI: 52 (Neutral to Bullish)
SL1: 0.2980
SL2: 0.2870
SL3: 0.2720
TP1: 0.3250 (+4.8%)
TP2: 0.3450 (+11.3%)
TP3: 0.3800 (+22.5%)
Overall, ON is trading at a critical technical level where risk appears relatively controlled compared to potential upside. If buyers defend the 0.3000 support and volume increases, the probability of a breakout toward 0.3600–0.4500 continues to improve. The coming sessions could determine whether ON begins its next bullish leg or extends its consolidation before the next major move.@Gate_Square

#SK海力士财报不佳盘后下跌 SK Hynix with a 5x PE: opportunity or risk?
SK Hynix with a 5x PE: the biggest risk is the 【cycle top low-PE valuation trap】; the opportunity comes from HBM structural barriers and long-term contracts hedging cycle volatility. Simply seeing a 5x PE and thinking “it’s cheap” is the most common pitfall for cycle investing.
First, clarify: the current 5x PE is calculated using annualized profits at the peak of this cycle’s boom; it is a forward PE, not steady-state normal earnings.

I. Why many people think: a 5x PE is a massive risk (bear logic)

1. Storage rule of thumb: at the peak of the cycle, PE looks the lowest
Storage is the “pig cycle” version of chips.
In the late stage of an up-cycle, profits surge to historical highs, the denominator becomes very large, and PE compresses to 5–7x. Once supply and demand reverse and chip prices fall, net profit shrinks quickly; a 5x PE turns into 15x, 20x, or even losses overnight.
In the past two storage down-cycles, the maximum profit drawdowns for major players were generally 70%~90%.
In the current quarter, the profit margin is 76%, which is the industry earnings ceiling for human memory storage; the market is pricing ahead: ultra-high profit margins cannot be maintained forever.

2. Ongoing mid-to-long-term supply pressure
1）Samsung continues to ramp up HBM capacity;
2）CXMT expands DRAM+HBM at scale, gradually releasing capacity in 2027–2028, pressuring general DRAM prices;
3）SK Hynix increases its own capital expenditures to 40~50 trillion won, continuing expansion and adding industry supply in the long run.

3. The market starts to worry that AI capex growth may slow at the margin
The foundation of this super bull market: cloud providers keep increasing AI compute capacity.
If the growth rate of capex from top customers slows, incremental HBM demand will cool, and the storage price rally will peak. This earnings report missing expectations was the trigger for shifting funding expectations.

4. Hidden risks in capital structure (a risk specific to the Korean market)
Many retail investors rely on leveraged ETFs to trade storage leaders; once the trend breaks, it can easily trigger a chain reaction of liquidations and amplify the downside. This time, the ADR listing rapidly broke below and priced in a decline in global risk appetite.

II. Bullish perspectives: a 5x PE still has structural opportunities (bull logic)

1. Fundamentally different from traditional storage cycles: HBM forms an independent growth curve
In the past, cycle ups and downs were driven by consumer electronics and PC demand;
now the key incremental driver is AI HBM. SK Hynix holds a leading global share in HBM and is deeply tied to Nvidia; it has already signed long-term supply agreements (LTA) with 10 major customers, locking in substantial capacity through 2027–2028.
Long-term contracts can smooth price volatility, and earnings stability is significantly higher than in the traditional DRAM cycle.

2. Extremely strong cash flow, with a thick financial safety cushion
In Q2, net cash position is close to 69.4 trillion won, with virtually no debt repayment pressure; it does not need panic-driven discounting to pull cash back, and it can better withstand cycle downturn shocks.

3. Valuation vs. peers is already at an extreme historical low
In the previous storage boom peak, SK Hynix’s reasonable PE core was 8–12x; now it has fallen back to 5x. The stock price has already priced in part of the pessimistic expectations for the 2027 cycle downturn.
If the scenario is only a mild cooling rather than an earnings collapse, there is still room for valuation repair.

III. The most critical watershed: distinguish “traditional DRAM” from “HBM”

Risk point: general DRAM may return to cyclical game dynamics; but the duration of the supply-demand gap in high-end HBM is longer.
Two scenario projections:
1. Bearish scenario (the high-probability market pricing direction)
General DRAM prices peak first and then decline; the company’s overall gross margin gradually falls. Incremental HBM cannot fully offset the decline in general storage profits.
→ Today’s 5x PE is only a temporary illusion, and the stock enters a prolonged consolidation digesting pessimism.
2. Bullish scenario (low-probability upside beyond expectations)
Global AI compute investment continues to exceed expectations. HBM4/HBM4E remain in persistent supply shortage; long-term contract orders keep expanding, and the company maintains high profitability; industry supply expansion is slower than demand growth.
→ A 5x PE provides a margin of safety and can see valuation repair.

IV. Key cross-linking implications for A-share investors (focus)
SK Hynix is a global memory-cycle bellwether:
1、If Hynix keeps digesting valuation and the market keeps trading the “cycle peak” expectation, it will continue to suppress CXMT and China’s domestic memory industry chain (equipment, materials);
2、If overseas memory leaders only give a 5x cycle valuation, it will continue to challenge the reasonableness of extremely high valuations for A-share memory stocks, and valuation-comparison pressure will remain for the long term.

V. Simple practical summary

1. You absolutely cannot rely solely on “a 5x PE is very low” as the buy thesis. A low PE at the top of cycle stocks is a classic value trap.
2. If you’re betting on a rebound, treat it as a cycle rebound trade only, not something to hold on to long term.
3. Track three core validation metrics to judge whether opportunities are realized:
① Do DRAM/HBM spot and contract prices turn downward?
② The latest capex guidance from cloud providers;
③ The trend of SK Hynix’s gross margin in subsequent quarters.

The above is only an industry-logic scenario analysis and does not constitute any cross-border stock investment advice. $SKHY ‌

#美国四大银行拟推共享代币化存款网络 To deal with stablecoin shocks! Top US banks plan to launch a tokenized deposits network in 2027
Several major mainstream banks in the US plan to launch a tokenized deposits network in the first half of 2027, laying out on-chain digital payments infrastructure. The network will be led and operated by The Clearing House (the US real-time payments settlement institution), with multiple top banks including JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo holding shares together. The project will connect traditional payment channels with digital-asset infrastructure, enabling all-day, real-time on-chain transfers and settlement of bank deposits. At present, the underlying blockchain technology provider for the project has not yet been determined.
The core motivation for moving forward with this network is to address the risk of deposit outflows brought by the rapid adoption of stablecoins.
Compared with stablecoins, tokenized deposits map traditional bank deposits into digital tokens on the blockchain, fully fitting existing regulatory rules, accounting standards, and risk-control systems. This can effectively keep funds within the traditional banking system, making it a more prudent digital transformation option for the banking industry.
Currently, Wall Street financial institutions are accelerating their layout of tokenization of traditional assets, covering categories such as stocks, bonds, funds, and money market funds. Several exchanges are also preparing tokenized securities trading platforms.
Bank institutions say that market customer demand for asset tokenization continues to heat up. The rollout of the new tokenized deposits network will help traditional banks adapt to the trend of blockchain-based finance development, strengthen competitive advantages in the industry, and seize early opportunities in the on-chain payments and digital-asset settlement track. The head of the clearinghouse said directly that this project is a key strategic move for US banks to adapt to on-chain financial change.

Bloom Energy Delivers Record Earnings, Yet the Stock Falls. Here's Why the Market Looked Beyond the Headlines.
Bloom Energy produced one of the strongest earnings reports of its history, but the market reaction tells a very different story. While the company posted record-breaking financial results and raised its outlook for the rest of the year, investors focused less on what happened during the quarter and more on what comes next. The result was another reminder that in today's AI infrastructure market, expectations often matter more than earnings.
A quarter that exceeded almost every expectation
Bloom Energy reported an outstanding second quarter for 2026.
Revenue climbed to $1.065 billion, representing 165% year-over-year growth and comfortably surpassing market expectations of roughly $826 million. Adjusted earnings reached $0.78 per share, compared with $0.10 during the same period last year and well above the consensus estimate of $0.41.
The momentum extended across the business.
Product revenue surged 215% to $935 million, gross margin expanded from 26.7% to 33.4%, and adjusted EBITDA jumped to $253 million, more than six times higher than a year earlier.
Management also raised its full-year guidance, increasing projected 2026 revenue to $3.9–$4.2 billion from the previous $3.4–$3.8 billion range while lifting adjusted EPS guidance to $2.55–$2.85, well ahead of previous market expectations.
The quarter also marked Bloom Energy's first-ever $1 billion revenue quarter, highlighting how rapidly demand for its energy solutions has accelerated.
The market reaction surprised many investors
Despite the impressive results, Bloom Energy shares finished July 28 at $166.84, falling 11.34% during regular trading.
The stock traded between $157.65 and $176.85 before earnings were released. After the report, shares initially rallied between 7% and 10% in after-hours trading before giving back much of those gains.
By July 29, the stock recovered to around $186, but that still left it well below the $252 level seen only one month earlier and approximately 47% beneath its 52-week high of $351.28 recorded on June 25.
The contrast between exceptional business performance and weak share price performance highlights how differently investors are evaluating AI infrastructure companies today.
Valuation remains the biggest challenge
One reason behind the decline is simple: expectations had already become extremely high.
Even after the correction, Bloom Energy continues trading at roughly 84 times forward earnings and approximately 22 times forward sales.
Earlier in June, the forward price-to-earnings ratio exceeded 100x, reflecting enormous expectations for future growth.
Although the company significantly outperformed estimates, many investors believed those strong results had already been priced into the stock after its remarkable rally over the past year.
When valuations become this elevated, outstanding earnings alone may not be enough to satisfy the market.
The broader AI sector is also under pressure
Bloom Energy's decline did not occur in isolation.
During late July, AI-related equities experienced widespread selling as investors rotated away from high-growth infrastructure companies.
Several semiconductor, networking, and optical hardware companies also experienced significant declines following their earnings reports, while broader technology indices weakened alongside the AI sector.
Bloom Energy's relatively high market volatility made it especially sensitive to this broader rotation, encouraging investors to lock in profits after months of exceptional gains.
Investor sentiment remains cautious
Another factor weighing on sentiment has been continued investor caution following earlier questions surrounding Bloom Energy's supply chain.
Although the company rejected previous allegations regarding its operations, uncertainty contributed to elevated market volatility.
Reports discussing project timing involving major enterprise customers also encouraged investors to adopt a more cautious approach.
Short interest remained notable during July, increasing pressure on the stock during periods of heavy selling.
Can AI power demand continue growing?
The company's long-term investment thesis remains closely tied to artificial intelligence.
Management stated that Bloom Energy has become one of the preferred providers of on-site power solutions for AI data centers, with growing adoption among hyperscalers, cloud providers, and AI-focused enterprises.
Management also indicated that customer backlog continues expanding faster than current revenue, suggesting demand remains healthy.
However, investors continue asking one important question.
If AI infrastructure spending eventually slows, will current demand remain strong enough to support Bloom's rapid growth trajectory?
That uncertainty remains one of the biggest variables affecting valuation.
Strong growth, but execution still matters
Bloom Energy continues making meaningful progress toward stronger profitability.
Operating performance improved substantially during the quarter, supported by higher margins and stronger operating leverage.
The company also benefits from a growing long-term project pipeline, including an expanded partnership valued at approximately $25 billion, providing meaningful visibility into future opportunities.
Still, investors will be watching whether that backlog consistently converts into profitable revenue over the coming quarters.
The bigger picture
Bloom Energy's second-quarter results confirmed that its business continues gaining momentum as AI infrastructure investment expands.
Revenue growth, improving margins, stronger earnings, and higher guidance all reinforce that the company's operating performance is moving in the right direction.
At the same time, the share-price reaction demonstrates that markets are becoming increasingly selective.
Today's investors are no longer rewarding growth alone they are evaluating valuation, execution, financial discipline, and the long-term sustainability of AI capital spending.
Bloom Energy successfully delivered one of its strongest quarters ever.
The next challenge is proving that this level of growth can continue long enough to justify one of the market's most demanding valuations.
#BloomEnergy
#GateSquare
@Gate_Square