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#TradFi交易分享挑战 The bulls and bears in gold have yet to determine a winner
On Wednesday, gold sharply surged from a low of $4,453, essentially a short covering and sentiment recovery triggered by marginal changes in geopolitical expectations. The collapse in oil prices, the decline in U.S. Treasury yields, and the weakening dollar formed a perfect synergy, pulling gold back from the brink of the abyss. But the sustainability of this rebound entirely depends on the real progress of the U.S.-Iran negotiations over the next few days or weeks. If an agreement is finally reached and the Strait of Hormuz truly reopens, gold may face dual pressures from rising real interest rates and waning safe-haven demand, making Citi’s $4,300 target not out of reach. Conversely, if negotiations break down again, or if Iran at the last minute proposes terms the U.S. cannot accept, reigniting conflict, crude oil prices will rebound quickly, U.S. Treasury yields will regain upward momentum, and gold may temporarily breathe a sigh of relief only to be trapped again in a high-interest-rate environment.
For gold investors, what is needed now is not simply chasing gains or cutting losses, but closely monitoring every oil tanker in the Persian Gulf, every statement from Tehran, and every remark from Washington. Because in this market jointly priced by a missile and an agreement, gold’s next move will either be a surge beyond previous highs or a plunge back below $4,400. $XAUUSD