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PaiCrypto

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Active for: 9.4y
Futures Trading Strategist
Market Analyst
My cryptocurrency story begins with Bitcoin HIS GPU miners in 2012. P Trader | Crypto technical pattern analysis, teaching and writing as a first-person instructor.
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A privacy chain had just upgraded its new pool on October 3.
Eleven days later, a vulnerability was discovered.
39.8 million coins appeared out of thin air, instantly increasing the supply by 20%.
The minted coins went straight into the shielded pool. Once they were in, they couldn’t be traced.
The team first said it would roll back to the 14th.
Then it changed its tune, saying it was decentralized
and couldn’t be rolled back.
ZEC also had an upgrade with the same name in July, which patched its own May vulnerability.
On the 13th, I was watching redemptions from that ETF.
Today, the break is o
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ZEC+0.61%
If you ranked leading exchanges by their products in the tech industry,
which one is most like Apple?
Which one is most like Nvidia?
Which one is most like Google?
Which one is most like Xiaomi?
Which one is most like Huawei?
Which one is most like OPPO/Vivo?
The rankings are in no particular order.
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AAPL+0.43%
NVDA-1.42%
GOOGL-2.45%
  • 1
A new chain for AI agents launched yesterday
Its token rose 16% in a day
Market cap is over 600 million
It collected just over 30,000 in fees over the past year
Actual activity on the chain is shrinking
In mid-September, it was posting 2.7G a day
Now it’s down to 2.1G
Over the same 24 hours, Bitcoin fell less than 1%
Altcoins across the board are sliding
What’s pushing it up is those four words: AI agents
It bottomed at 0.3 in August; now it’s at 0.69
It’s still 65% below last September’s peak
I’m betting the next project to launch a new chain can sell another round like this
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BTC+0.97%
MSCI’s new rules are in effect: companies whose main business is holding crypto are being excluded from its indexes.
Strategy says this won’t affect its business.
In my last few rounds, I was focused on who was putting up the money to buy. Today, the machine itself is having a problem.
The passive selling isn’t that big.
The list comes out on November 11, and the changes take effect after the close on November 30.
JPMorgan estimates $2.8 billion in passive outflows.
Funds hold 13 million shares—less than a day’s trading volume.
What’s slowing down is the buying.
Last week, it bought just 250 c
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MSCI-1.02%
JPM+1.24%
BTC-0.96%
CoreWeave’s CEO told employees yesterday that the orders on hand can cover its debt
The bond market disagrees
The yield on its April bonds surged above 16% today
That kind of yield is usually reserved for companies nearing default
The bonds issued in April had a coupon of only 9.75%
It issued another batch in June at 9.625%, and those are now worth only 79.5 cents on the dollar
It paid $640 million in interest alone in the second quarter, compared with $267 million in the same period last year
Revenue more than doubled to $2.58 billion, but it still posted a $626 million loss
I
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CRWV-11.90%
TSM-2.33%
Gold and silver moved higher together today.
Gold rose 1.7% in a day, while silver climbed even more aggressively.
On the crypto side, the entire market dropped by more than 5% that same day.
Yesterday’s September CPI came in at 3.7% year over year, higher than expected.
Gasoline prices rose 9.1% in one month.
The odds of a rate hike at the meeting later this month jumped from 20% to 50%.
Crypto has been carrying the “inflation hedge” label for years.
Today, gold and silver are where the money is flowing.
Ethereum fell 5% in a day, dropping harder than Bitcoin.
I’m still hold
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GLDX-0.28%
PAXG+0.58%
GAS-4.19%
ETH+0.47%
BTC+0.97%
The Hyperliquid team started moving 3.75 million tokens out of staking at the end of last month
It took seven days, and by October 7, everything had arrived in spot accounts
At the price then, the batch was worth $330 million, making it their largest distribution ever
A co-founder said in Discord last week that it had been arranged with an institution and would not go through the open market
The subsequent on-chain movements were more complicated than the announcement suggested
Half was first spread across five addresses, with 375,000 tokens in each
A few days later, they were cons
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HYPE+1.28%
South Korea’s stock market got crushed 5.46% yesterday
Its worst day in two months
It fell as much as 7.41% intraday, broke below the 6,000 level, then recovered it by the close
Hynix was cut down 10% in a single day, and Samsung followed with a 7% drop
Foreign investors net sold 4.52 trillion Korean won in one day, equivalent to $3.4 billion
The heaviest selling since the end of July
The trigger was a Chinese memory maker saying it would mass-produce a new generation of server memory by year-end
People recalculated the AI trade
Bitcoin bottomed at 81K that day, Ethereum at 240
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BTC+0.97%
The coins rising the fastest have the thinnest order books
STRK rose 2.5x in four trading days
The next day after the rally, it gave back 31 percentage points
On Sunday’s gainers list, nine coins had risen more than 15% in one day
The next day, all nine closed lower
These coins have nothing to do with macro conditions
I reviewed a set of order book statistics last week
Within 1% above and below Bitcoin’s price, there were $11.7 million in orders
That’s thicker than in January this year
For altcoins, within 5% above and below the price, only $2 million remained
At the beginn
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STRK-6.58%
BTC+0.97%
ETH+0.47%
Same quarter, same business segment
The numbers from the two firms are exactly opposite
JPMorgan says investment banking fees will rise by the low teens
Bank of America says they will drop by at least 10%
The options market is pricing in a 2.8% move for Goldman Sachs
And a 2.5% move for JPMorgan
Goldman Sachs has averaged only a 2% move after earnings over the past eight quarters
Financials are in the green today, while the Nasdaq is in the red
Money is siding with the banks today
One reports before the market opens tomorrow, and the other reports before the market opens the
post-image
JPM+1.24%
BAC-0.87%
GS-1.28%
NAS100+1.33%
After staring at the charts for a full week, everything starts to look the same.
Someone DM’d me asking where those signals actually come from.
What you see from me has already been chewed over once.
After the market closes, I sit down and take my time picking out only the one most worth talking about.
What gets written is just the conclusion. The entire process has been left on the table.
The one in the channel is unprocessed.
It scans once on the hour, covering crypto and precious metals together.
It runs through the three U.S. stock market sessions on its own.
Once the criteria are met, it
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Goldman Sachs connected its $100 billion money market fund to Avalanche
Without issuing a single token
BlackRock and Franklin actually issued tokens, with the shares living directly on-chain
Goldman didn’t do that—the fund is still the same fund as before
The chain is only responsible for settlement
Money is piling into this chain. Tokenized stocks brought in $131 million over the past seven days
That’s eight times the runner-up, more than all the other chains combined
AVAX closed at 7.56 four weeks ago and is at 10.90 today
Bitcoin gained only 7% over the same period
Not a s
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GS-0.52%
AVAX+0.43%
BLK+0.86%
BTC+0.97%
Strong start to the week🔴
On October 10 last year, Bitcoin crashed from $122,000 to $105,000 in a single day
$19 billion in futures positions were liquidated, and 1.6 million accounts were wiped out
Three days later, it clawed back to $114,000
Today, one year later, it’s at $83,000
27% below that rebound level
Still 34% below the $126,000 peak from October 6 last year
Tariffs were the trigger, and liquidations followed
Ethereum dropped 15% that day
More than 85% of the liquidated positions were longs
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $680 million in outflows this week, ending three consecutive weeks of inflows
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BTC+0.93%
ETH+0.47%
  • 1
Through absolutely objective analysis
you can reach an absolute conclusion
If the market could really be defined so simply
then the meaning of this market would change from a game
into the absolute crushing of higher dimensions over lower dimensions
The ever-changing core of market trading
is the intertwining of time, history, and human nature
Only time and history are certain
so no one can define the market
or see its direction
They can only follow the market through the dimensions of time and history
I suppose you still don’t understand
Then just listen to the last se
This cycle is still missing a 1011
Only despair can wash out the weak hands
Until despair appears in the market,
there will be no hope
Because that is the meaning of a bear market