Geopolitics

The value of Bitcoin holdings held by El Salvador has significantly decreased, while credit default swaps have risen to the highest level in five months, raising concerns about the country's IMF loan negotiations. Bloomberg reported that the reserve value has fallen from a peak of approximately $800 million in Bitcoin in October 2025, shrinking by nearly $300 million in just four months.

The Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates has approved Abu Dhabi First Bank's UAE Dirham stablecoin DDSC, which is now live on the Layer 2 blockchain ADI Chain. DDSC will be used for payments and collections, settlement, fund operations, trade supply chain flows for institutional and government entities, as well as providing programmable financial services for regulated entities.

The Argentine Congress removed the digital wallet salary option from the labor reform bill, with banking industry lobbying influencing the Senate vote. Most Argentinians support the freedom to choose where to deposit their salaries. Argentina's current laws require employees to deposit their wages into traditional bank accounts, but digital wallet adoption has grown significantly over the past decades. A 2022 survey by the Central Bank of Argentina found that only 47% of Argentinians have a bank account, mainly due to long-standing distrust of the traditional banking system.

PANews February 13 News, according to Cointelegraph, the Indiana State Senate Committee advances HB1042, which allows the state pension fund to invest in cryptocurrencies.

On February 13, news reports indicate that the political lobbying power of cryptocurrencies is accelerating its involvement in the U.S. election process. The super PAC supporting the digital asset industry, "Protect Progress," announced it will spend $1.5 million on advertisements in the Texas Democratic primary to oppose long-time Congressman Al Green, due to his longstanding anti-crypto stance and multiple votes against related legislation in Congress. Protect Progress is affiliated with the large crypto political organization Fairshake. In a statement, the organization said that Al Green, as a member of the Financial Services Committee, opposed the stablecoin regulation bill the GENIUS Act and the market structure reform bill the CLARITY Act, and is seen as a key figure hindering American financial innovation. He has represented Texas's 9th district since 2005 and has served in Congress for over twenty years.

February 12 News, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) took a significant step in the ongoing debate over the structure of the crypto market by officially inviting several senior executives from the crypto industry to join its Innovation Advisory Committee (IAC). This move is seen as an important signal of regulatory authorities accelerating dialogue with the digital asset industry and also introduces new variables to the U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory landscape. The invited members come from well-known companies and financial institutions, including Uniswap Labs, Ripple, Robinhood, CME Group, and Nasdaq. For the CFTC, which currently only regulates crypto derivatives and has not directly covered the spot market, such a concentrated introduction of industry expertise is uncommon. The committee was established last month with the goal of providing regulatory agencies with cutting-edge advice on blockchain, artificial intelligence, and new financial infrastructure.

The EU is contemplating a comprehensive ban on all cryptocurrency transactions with Russia to effectively enforce sanctions. This approach aims to prevent Russian entities from evading restrictions and funding the war in Ukraine, amidst concerns of shifting business to non-European platforms.

The Trump administration secretly smuggled 6,000 Starlink satellite terminals into Iran after the internet was cut off, helping dissidents access the web. Although possessing these devices is illegal in Iran, many people use them to bypass censorship. The White House has not responded to this incident.

SBF posted on X stating that during Biden's era, companies are forced to relocate overseas, while Trump attracts companies back to the U.S. Democratic Party increases corporate taxes and tightens regulations, leading to capital outflows. Now, the U.S. Department of Justice is no longer prosecuting broadly, and the crypto market is gradually opening up to Americans.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority released the 2025 Work Review and the 2026 Work Priorities, emphasizing consumer protection in digital assets and a prudent regulatory framework, which will take effect in 2026. At the same time, it promotes the FinTech 2030 Plan, focusing on data, artificial intelligence, and tokenization development.

Recently, China has once again tightened cryptocurrency regulations, banning the issuance of RMB-pegged stablecoins by overseas entities and cracking down on the development of Hong Kong as a digital asset hub. The market response has been tepid, with funds accelerating their withdrawal, and the crypto industry returning to a pragmatic development approach. The contradiction between capital controls and crypto innovation is becoming increasingly apparent.

In the UK, the Treasury has engaged the blockchain solution of HSBC, called Orion, for the testing of the issuance of tokenized sovereign bonds. It also hopes to improve debt market infrastructure, speed up and settlement times. The UK Treasury chose HSBC Holdings’ blockchain-based system to

February 12 News, the cryptocurrency market sentiment has sharply deteriorated. The latest data shows that the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 5, officially entering the "Extreme Fear" zone, reflecting a rapid loss of investor confidence amid ongoing price declines and increasing macroeconomic uncertainty. The index was still at 26 a month ago and dropped to 12 a week ago, with the steep decline over a short period highlighting a dramatic shift in sentiment. This change is not an isolated event. The Global Uncertainty Index surged above 100,000 in the third quarter of 2025, and remained close to 95,000 in the fourth quarter, far exceeding the peaks seen during the pandemic, Brexit, and the Eurozone debt crisis. Geopolitical tensions, uncertain policy outlooks, and financial market volatility have collectively amplified risk-averse sentiment and driven capital outflows from high-risk assets.

The Thai government approved a proposal from the Ministry of Finance on Tuesday to allow digital assets to be used as underlying assets for derivative products and capital markets. This move aligns with the Stock Exchange of Thailand's plan to launch Bitcoin futures and ETFs in 2026. However, the central bank still prohibits cryptocurrency payments, and consumer stablecoin usage is restricted. Thailand's largest exchange, Bitkub, has a daily trading volume of $65 million, and in January, it launched a campaign to combat "gray funds."

8,300 Chinese victims applying for compensation in a 60,000 Bitcoin money laundering case with slow progress, law firms acting independently leading to repeated issues, and rising legal fees. In February 2026, a hearing will be held in the High Court of the United Kingdom, involving over 30 billion RMB and nearly 130,000 victims. Bitcoin market capitalization has significantly shrunk.

On February 12, the largest banking lobbying organization in the United States—the American Bankers Association (ABA)—submitted a comment letter to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), urging it to slow down the approval process for cryptocurrency-related licenses until Congress completes rules for stablecoins and digital assets. The association warned that prematurely approving new digital asset institutions into the national banking system could pose potential risks to financial stability and resolution mechanisms. Currently, institutions including Circle, Ripple, BitGo, Paxos, and Laser Digital (a subsidiary of Nomura Securities) are applying for or already hold OCC conditional trust bank licenses. World Liberty Financial, associated with Trump, also submitted an application covering its $1 stablecoin. The ABA believes that, in the absence of the implementation of the GENIUS Act and its supporting regulations, the OCC should not follow the traditional approval pace.

The likelihood of a U.S. government shutdown rose to 85%, stemming from budget negotiation deadlock. Potential economic consequences include federal employee furloughs and service interruptions. Financial markets may experience volatility, but Bitcoin shows unusual stability, suggesting investor confidence in its value storage role may depend on the shutdown's duration and impact.

Thailand takes a key step forward in cryptocurrency regulation. The Thai cabinet has approved significant amendments to the Derivatives Act, officially including cryptocurrencies within the scope of regulated derivative assets. This means that crypto assets will be recognized as compliant financial instruments within Thailand's capital market framework, suitable for hedging, pricing, and structured transactions. Pornanong Budsaratragoon, Secretary-General of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of Thailand, stated that this move will broaden investment options, strengthen risk management mechanisms, and promote the market toward greater transparency and diversification. The regulators also indicated that subsequent rules will be drafted to adjust derivative licensing systems, allowing digital asset-related institutions to offer contract products linked to cryptocurrencies, while simultaneously reviewing standards for trading, clearing, and risk control.