Monetary Policy

Experts discussed possible scenarios for the development of the Bitcoin market on the Macro Monday program, which focused on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and the process of passing the Clarity Act. According to the program’s participants, a critical move in Bitcoin could occur within the next 48 hours, while the Clarity Act is viewed as a potential catalyst for the crypto sector. Against the backdrop of a growing probability of a rate hike (80-90 percent in the markets), exp

As of September 15, interest-rate futures market pricing showed that the probability of the FED hiking rates by 25 bps at this week’s September 15–16 FOMC meeting had risen to approximately 87%, up significantly from approximately 70% before the release of the latest inflation data. Goldman Sachs’ chief economist team has reversed its mid-August stance that there would be “no rate hike in September” and now expects a 25-bps rate hike at this meeting. Timeline of Goldman Sachs’ Shift in Interest

According to Foresight News, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that the CLARITY Act is crucial for developing digital asset technology in the U.S. The final version grants the Treasury Secretary additional authority to take measures protecting community banks if stablecoins cause deposit

On September 15, Bitcoin (BTC) continued to fluctuate within a range, trading around $77,950. The direct trigger for the rebound was a post by U.S. President Trump on Truth Social saying Iran was “eager to reach a deal” and that Washington remained open to diplomatic engagement. Iranian state media denied the claim, while LiveSquawk cited the ILNA news agency as saying that the U.S. was seeking a “phased” agreement. Trump: Iran Diplomatic Engagement Statement, Official Denial, and Oman Meeting P

According to Fedwatchtool, the U.S. headline CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year on Friday (September 13), in line with consensus forecasts. The print pushed September FOMC rate hike odds to 87%, up from the low 70s earlier in the week, according to market data. Brent crude oil b

According to QCP analysis, Bitcoin declined to $76,700 on September 14 following the August CPI report, which showed a 0.4% month-on-month increase versus market expectations of 0.2%, before recovering to $77,600. The market has largely priced in a 25 basis point rate hike scenario, with the key

According to QCP, on September 14, the market has largely digested the Federal Reserve's expected 25 basis point rate hike this week, with attention now shifting to the Fed's policy guidance on future rate paths. August CPI data showed inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, with the consumer p

India and Russia have begun work on a settlement mechanism using digital currencies for bilateral trade, as the central banks of both countries examine the possibility of using sovereign currencies for cross-border payments. Sberbank CEO Herman Gref said that the Bank of Russia and the Reserve Bank of India are working on the mechanism, with Russia’s largest lender supporting the initiative as trade between the countries expands. Gref said demand for digital currencies could grow as technologies

According to Gate trading data, Asian currencies weakened against the dollar in early trading on September 14 amid expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike. The USD strengthened against the Korean won and Japanese yen by 0.3% each, reaching 1,345.8 and 154.06 respectively, while the

Bitcoin (BTC) continued its modest decline, trading at around $76,750 on Sept. 14. The U.S. Senate Democratic caucus will hold a regular meeting on the crypto bill, the CLARITY Act, while Republicans said Democrats should vote to advance the bill. Brazil's Central Bank set capital requirements for crypto exchanges as high as approximately $7.2 million, potentially forcing around 290 crypto exchanges to exit. Macro Events & Crypto Highlights According to POLITICO, two people familiar with the mat

The FED published research in FEDS Notes on September 4 examining how tokenized deposits, tokenized money market funds, and payment stablecoins should be incorporated into the United States’ official money supply statistics. The research noted that, depending on their actual use cases, payment stablecoins could potentially be classified under M1 or included among the non-M1 items in M2. The FED also identified two major statistical obstacles: double counting and cross-border circulation. FED Res

Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at around $76,808 on Sept. 14, down 0.2% over 24 hours. On the macro front, the U.S. market is currently pricing in an 87% probability of a 25-bps hike at the FED’s Sept. 16 policy meeting, while U.S. President Trump told reporters in Ireland on Sunday: “The United States is so strong, we should be paying the lowest interest rate in the world.” The divergence between the market and the White House is in stark contrast. Bitcoin’s Distance From the Bull Run Threshold Bitc

The Federal Reserve announced no interest rate hike this week, according to CryptoTwitter commentator Ran Neuner. Neuner's statement also referenced the Clarity Act, which is expected to pass, though no specific vote date was provided. The announcement comes amid mixed signals in the broader

According to CryptoTwitter commentator Ran Neuner, the Federal Reserve has confirmed there will be no interest rate hike this week. The Clarity Act, which provides regulatory clarity for digital assets, is expected to pass soon, potentially influencing market sentiment and trading

Veteran macro investor Jordi Visser stated in an interview published Saturday that Bitcoin is in the same category as SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI—four assets he estimated are collectively worth around $8 trillion, none of which currently generate profits. Visser argued this grouping reveals how

According to CoinShares research head James Butterfill on September 13, Bitcoin faces an "unusual combination" of short-term weakness and mid-term tailwinds. The U.S. August core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, exceeding expectations and increasing odds of Federal Reserve tightening. CME FedWatch