NFP far exceeded expectations but had no impact on Smart Money; the probability of a rate hike on Sept. 16 remains at 58%.
U.S. August NFP data far exceeded expectations, reviving calls for an Interest Rate hike on social media and among analysts. However, CME FedWatch Tool probability pricing is derived from the federal funds futures market, which showed a 58% probability that the September 16 FOMC meeting would raise rates by 25 bps to the 3.75%–4% range as of September 8—nearly unchanged from the week before the NFP release. Real-Time Market Data After the NFP Release After the release of the U.S. August NFP data
MarketWhisper·1h ago
