Monetary Policy

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NFP far exceeded expectations but had no impact on Smart Money; the probability of a rate hike on Sept. 16 remains at 58%.

U.S. August NFP data far exceeded expectations, reviving calls for an Interest Rate hike on social media and among analysts. However, CME FedWatch Tool probability pricing is derived from the federal funds futures market, which showed a 58% probability that the September 16 FOMC meeting would raise rates by 25 bps to the 3.75%–4% range as of September 8—nearly unchanged from the week before the NFP release. Real-Time Market Data After the NFP Release After the release of the U.S. August NFP data
MarketWhisper·1h ago
非農超預期未衝擊聰明錢

Bitcoin Falls Below USD 80,000 Again; Analyst: Range-Bound Trading Expected to Continue Ahead of FED Decision

Sept. 8, Bitcoin was trading at around $79,176. CoinEx Chief Analyst Jeff Ko said Bitcoin is expected to remain in a $78,000–$82,000 range before the FED announces its next Interest Rate decision. The U.S. Treasury will expand the scale of its bond buyback operations on Sept. 9, with the next key events being the Producer Price Index (PPI), Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the FED decision. Bitcoin Trading Data and Support and Resistance Range According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin was trading at a
MarketWhisper·3h ago
聯準會決議前比特幣再次跌破80000美元

August CPI will be released this week. With the market pricing in roughly a 58% chance of a Fed rate hike in September, how will it reprice?

On the evening of September 4 Beijing time, the U.S. Department of Labor released the August NFP report. The data showed that seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 during the month, far exceeding the market expectation of 55,000, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% and the labor force participation rate rose from 61.4% to 61.6%. This strong employment report triggered a Chain Reaction in financial markets. The CME FedWatch tool showed that the probability of a FED
BTC-1.13%
ETH-0.67%
GateInstantTrends·19h ago
August CPI will be released this week. With the market pricing in roughly a 58% chance of a Fed rate hike in September, how will it reprice?

Bitcoin returns to $80k, BloFin analyst: “currency debasement trade” enters its second phase

Sept. 7, Bitcoin recovered to above $80,000, still about 37% below this year's all-time high. Meanwhile, US federal debt has exceeded $40 trillion, the fiscal deficit remains at about 6% of GDP, and long-term borrowing costs remain high. BloFin analysts said in a report that the “currency debasement trade” has not failed but has entered its second phase: the drivers have shifted from simple debt expansion to market assessments of whether the government will take action to lower borrowing costs.
BTC-1.11%
MarketWhisper·09-07 01:13
比特幣重返8萬美元

Why does NFP data have such a big impact on the market? August NFP far exceeded expectations, boosting bets on a Fed rate hike.

At 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the August NFP employment report. The data showed that U.S. seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, the highest level since March and well above the market expectation of 56,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, in line with expectations. Meanwhile, July’s figure was revised up from an initial decline of 23,000 to an increase of 21,000. This much stronger-than-expected employ
BTC-1.11%
GLDX0.12%
PAXG0.81%
CME-0.25%
CL0.39%
GateInstantTrends·09-04 13:09
Why does NFP data have such a big impact on the market? August NFP far exceeded expectations, boosting bets on a Fed rate hike.

Bitcoin Enters Rate Decision Window as Fed Rate Hike Odds Swing From 70% to 45-50% Post-Jackson Hole

According to ChainCatcher, citing QCP Capital's latest market report, Bitcoin experienced sharp volatility as Federal Reserve rate hike expectations shifted dramatically. After Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, September rate hike odds spiked from 35% to 70%, triggering a 2.5% single-day BTC de
BTC-2.35%
ADP-2.09%
INDEX-10.29%
GateNews·09-04 11:07
Bitcoin Enters Rate Decision Window as Fed Rate Hike Odds Swing From 70% to 45-50% Post-Jackson Hole

Will the FED hike rates in Sept.? Gate bets 60% on keeping rates unchanged and 41% on a hike—what signal is Waller sending?

In the early morning of September 4, 2026, Beijing Time, FED Governor Christopher Waller said in a public interview in Washington that if the August inflation data continued to confirm that price pressures were easing, he would tend to support keeping the federal funds target range unchanged at the September 15–16 policy meeting. The remarks, interpreted by the market as dovish, quickly triggered a global financial market Chain Reaction. Data from Gate 行情 showed that 特币(BTC)价格 had risen 4.17% ov
BTC-1.11%
ETH-0.66%
GateInstantTrends·09-04 09:26
Will the FED hike rates in Sept.? Gate bets 60% on keeping rates unchanged and 41% on a hike—what signal is Waller sending?

Sept. rate-hike probability falls to 50%: Waller turns dovish—what does the simultaneous rally in Bitcoin, gold, and U.S. stocks mean?

The FED’s September rate-hike probability fell from 66% to 50% within days. Governor Waller sent a clear dovish signal, saying that if inflation continues to cool, he would support keeping rates unchanged in September. Bitcoin broke above $82,000, gold climbed above $4,500, and U.S. stocks posted their biggest gain in nearly a month. What does the sharp drop in expectations mean? How will the Crypto market’s pricing logic be restructured? The Core of Waller’s “Conditional Dovishness” Waller set
BTC-1.11%
ETH-0.66%
PAXG0.81%
GateInstantTrends·09-04 08:03
Sept. rate-hike probability falls to 50%: Waller turns dovish—what does the simultaneous rally in Bitcoin, gold, and U.S. stocks mean?

Bitcoin Reclaims $80,000 as Fed Signals Rate Pause, $415M Shorts Liquidated

Bitcoin reclaimed $80,000 on Thursday, trading near $80,270 and up close to 3% over 24 hours, as XRP, Ethereum, and BNB rallied alongside a broader stock market advance. The surge followed comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who signaled he could support holding the Fed's benchmark
BTC-1.13%
ETH-0.66%
XRP-1.13%
BNB-0.48%
NVDA0.87%
LucasBennett·09-03 16:43
Bitcoin Reclaims $80,000 as Fed Signals Rate Pause, $415M Shorts Liquidated