Monetary Policy

Bitcoin fell 3% to $63,300 over the past week while July's average daily spot trading volume reached $2.2 billion, the lowest level since November 2023, according to K33 research firm. The decline reflects muted activity across spot and derivatives markets during what K33 Head of Research Vetle

At 12:00 a.m. on July 30 (Beijing time), the Fed will release its July FOMC meeting decision. This will be the second FOMC meeting since Fed Chair Kevin Wosch took office, and it may well be the most difficult to predict in recent years. The CME FedWatch tool shows that, as of July 29, the probability that the market is pricing in the Fed keeping the policy rate unchanged in the 3.50% to 3.75% range is 70.6%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike is 29.4%. This probability structure

According to prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, the U.S. Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting is expected to feature at least two dissenting votes against maintaining rates, likely from hawkish policymakers Hammarck and Logan. Kalshi data shows both officials have around 58% probability of

Bitcoin's price climbed above $66,000 in mid-July as US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $980 million in net inflows from July 14 to 22, reversing a sharp $425 million outflow on July 13. The recovery has reignited market debate over three factors supporting a second-half rally thesis:

According to Paysafe Investors, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $980 million in net inflows from July 14 to 22, reversing earlier outflows. However, this recovery follows a $4.9 billion net outflow in Q2, suggesting limited institutional rebound so far. The Bitcoin market is also watching the Federal

According to CoinDesk, Citadel, which manages $67 billion in assets, expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, while most crypto and traditional market analysts anticipate rates will remain unchanged. CME FedWatch data shows a 35.8% probability of a hike, up

Bitcoin declined to the $63,000 range ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on the 29th. Yahoo Finance attributed the decline to falling AI-related stocks, uncertainty over the Fed's next rate decision, and delays in cryptocurrency-related legislation in Congress. The market faces re

Bitcoin declined to the $63,000 range on the 29th as the cryptocurrency market faced pressure from multiple factors ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision, according to Yahoo Finance. The report identified artificial intelligence-related stock declines, uncertainty surrounding the Fed's next r

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its July report on stability assessments of Brazil’s financial system that since 2017, the use of cryptocurrencies—especially stablecoins—has been growing steadily and has now surpassed traditional channels to become the main way for cross-border funds to flow into and out of Brazil. At the same time, Argentina’s BIND Group and the Peterson Group are rolling out a peso stablecoin via subsidiaries, bypassing Argentina’s central bank ban since May 2022

Bitcoin (BTC) makes a slight rebound in the short term, temporarily around $63,820 as of July 29. Before the August recess, the U.S. Senate plans to push for a vote on the CLARITY Act, with moral clauses and bank lobbying serving as key obstacles. Strategy founder Michael Saylor warned that internal corruption is Bitcoin’s biggest threat and specifically called out opposition to BIP-110. Macroeconomic Events & Crypto Hotspots 1、According to Politico, Republican senators in the U.S. hope to advan

July 29, Bitcoin edged higher to around $64,000; earlier that same day, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched multiple ballistic missiles from within Iran at the U.S. military’s Al-Azraq air base in Jordan. The U.S. Central Command said all missiles were successfully intercepted. The news quickly reversed oil prices: Brent crude had already fallen to around $83.75 per barrel, while WTI dropped to about $78.55 per barrel. Iran attacks U.S. base in Jordan, shipping risk in the Str

According to CoinDesk, analysts expect that any dovish signal from the Federal Reserve at Wednesday's FOMC meeting could benefit Bitcoin. CME FedWatch data shows a 70% probability the Fed will maintain current rates and a 30% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike. Block Scholes analyst Thahbib

According to CME FedWatch, the Federal Reserve announces its rate decision on Wednesday, July 29, with markets pricing a 31.5% probability of a rate hike and 68.5% odds of holding rates steady. Bitcoin (BTC) has drifted lower ahead of the announcement, trading near $63,683, down 1.87% over 24

According to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, interest rate decisions will have less impact on Bitcoin over the next five years than the past 15 years, as the CME expects only a 50-basis-point rate increase in the coming year. Hougan suggested that the Federal Reserve under Warsh's leadership may adopt a

Prediction markets show strong consensus for a Fed hold ahead of the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, with Kalshi pricing no rate change at 73% and a 25-basis-point hike at 26%. CME FedWatch similarly shows a 66.3% hold probability. However, Citadel Securities' Frank Flight has broken from consensus,

Bitcoin broke below $64,000 on July 28 for the third time since July 24, triggering approximately $100 million in liquidations within a single hour. The liquidations occurred faster than two prior episodes this week, when Bitcoin's retreat from nearly $67,000 triggered an $87 million liquidation

According to Bank of America, on Monday (July 27), the bank stated that the Federal Reserve should avoid responding to energy supply shocks, describing such inaction as a 'textbook policy choice.' The assessment comes as Kalshi prediction market traders widely expect such shocks to be mentioned in u

Bitcoin (BTC) gives back the early-week gains, trading at around $63,225 as of July 28. Franklin Templeton publicly backs the “CLARITY Act,” saying the bill will clarify the regulatory framework for crypto assets. Bitmine said that over the past week it bought nearly 10,000 ETH and has not paused its buying strategy despite the lackluster market; it currently holds 5.79 million ETH. Macro Events & Crypto Hotspots 1、Franklin Templeton posted on X saying it publicly supports the “CLARITY Act” pass

President Trump stated he knows what Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh wants to do and expressed support for interest rate cuts. The comment came after the Fed held rates steady at 3.5-3.75% during Warsh's first policy meeting on June 17, 2026. Inflation is currently running above 4%. Trump has