Monetary Policy

Prediction market Polymarket shows traders assigning a 64% probability to a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike at the October 27-28 meeting, following comments from Fed Governor Michael Barr that further monetary tightening may be needed to reach the central bank's 2% inflation target. Fresh

According to Polymarket prediction market, as of September 27, traders are assigning a 64% probability to a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate increase at the October 27-28 meeting. The market gives approximately 35% odds to no change, while larger hikes or rate cuts remain below 1%. The shift

According to ChainCatcher, citing sources familiar with the matter, the Trump administration is considering launching an overseas stablecoin initiative, potentially through a public-private partnership involving the Treasury Department, State Department, and the U.S. International Development

ARK Invest, founded by Cathie Wood, partnered with Securitize to tokenize the ARK Venture Fund on Ethereum blockchain, providing eligible investors blockchain-based access to a portfolio spanning private and public companies. The fund, identified as ARKVX, invests in companies associated with

Ethereum traded at $2,717.02 at 13:09 UTC on 25 September 2026, up approximately 2.4 percent on the day, per CoinGecko. Coinbase printed $2,713.93 and Kraken $2,714.05 at the same time, confirming the level across three venues. US spot ether ETFs recorded net inflows on every session from 21 to 24 S

According to the Federal Reserve, on September 24, 2026, the central bank proposed that stablecoin issuers fully back their tokens with short-term Treasury bills or other highly liquid assets. The proposal also introduces standardized capital requirements and risk management standards for the

On September 24, the Federal Reserve released two regulatory proposals for payment stablecoins under the GENIUS Act, establishing reserve, capital and risk-management requirements for supervised issuers. The first proposal requires payment stablecoins to be fully backed by permitted reserve

According to the Federal Reserve, the central bank introduced new rules on September 24 allowing member banks to hold deposits and provide custody services for stablecoin issuers, provided they meet specified conditions. The rules implement the GENIUS

According to the Federal Reserve on Sept. 24, the central bank proposed capital, redemption and disclosure requirements for stablecoin issuers implementing the GENIUS Act. Issuers would face operational-risk capital charges of 2% on the first $20 billion in stablecoins outstanding, 1.5% on the

According to ChainCatcher, the Federal Reserve proposed requirements for banks issuing payment stablecoins, mandating at least $1 in approved reserves for every $1 of tokens, with customer redemptions typically completed within two business days. Issuers failing to meet minimum capital requirements

According to CME FedWatch data, Bitcoin traded near $84,490 on Thursday, down from Monday's $87,397 high, as markets price in a 75% probability the Federal Reserve raises rates in October and 59% odds for December. Higher rates strengthen the dollar and improve returns on bonds, making

The Trump administration is considering a plan to promote dollar-backed stablecoins overseas through potential joint ventures between the U.S. government and private companies. The initiative could involve the Treasury Department, State Department, and U.S. International Development Finance

According to Citigroup, US employers added 162,000 jobs in August, more than triple the 53,000 economists expected, prompting the bank to delay its forecast for the Fed's first interest rate cut to June 2027—nine months later than previously projected. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, and prior m

CFTC Chair Mike Selig announced on CNBC that the agency is proceeding with crypto market structure rules, stating 'it's go time,' eight days after the Senate blocked the Clarity Act. Selig argued the CFTC's existing statutory authority permits action without Congressional approval, focusing on

The U.S. composite PMI output index rose from 56.0 in August to 58.4 in September, reaching a 62-month high. The services PMI rose from 56.5 to 58.7, while the manufacturing output index climbed from 53.1 to 56.7, with manufacturing and services expanding in tandem. The new orders index jumped from 55.2 to 58.2, its highest level since March 2022; backlogs of work also rose to their highest level since May 2022. Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, noted

On September 23, 2026, preliminary U.S. September PMI data released by S&P Global exceeded market expectations across the board, immediately triggering a Chain Reaction across global risk assets. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% at its October meeting is 29.1%, while the probability of a 25-bps rate hike is 70.9%. Meanwhile, according to data from Gate 行情, 比特币 was trading near $84,138 as of September 24 Beijing time, down approxim

The European System of Central Banks (ESCB, comprising the European Central Bank and the national central banks of EU member states) submitted its comments on MiCA to the European Commission on September 22, calling for the removal of the requirement that stablecoin issuers hold 30%–60% of their reserves in commercial banks and recommending the adoption of a “liquidity threshold” instead. The ESCB also called for MiCA’s ban on interest payments to be expanded from “direct interest payments” to i

Bitcoin (BTC) fell from this week’s high on September 24, trading at around $84,340, down approximately 2.2% over 24 hours. According to CoinGlass data, approximately $444 million in long positions were liquidated in the 24 hours through that time, the highest level since September 15. FED Governor Michael Barr hinted that “further policy adjustments may be needed” to curb inflation. $444 Million in Long Liquidations: Timing Connection Between PMI Data and FED Rate-Hike Signals According to Coin

According to Francis Brook, U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary, stablecoin issuers currently hold approximately $200 billion in U.S. Treasury bills and short-dated securities, and could substantially increase these holdings over the coming years once the GENIUS Act regulatory framework is finalized. Bro