Monetary Policy

Tonight at 20:30 Beijing time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the May 2026 nonfarm payrolls employment report. This is not only the first “Nonfarm Friday” after the newly appointed Fed chair Waller took office, but also the last major economic indicator before the FOMC monetary policy meeting on June 16-17. Market consensus is that May nonfarm payrolls will add a net 85,000 jobs, slowing sharply from April’s 115,000; the unemployment rate is expected to stay at 4.3%; and averag

CME Group CEO Terry Duffy said on June 4 that sustainable crypto futures are “a time bomb,” warning that CFTC approval of such products could undermine stability in U.S. financial markets. On May 29, the CFTC approved the launch of the first batch of U.S.-regulated crypto perpetual futures contracts by Coinbase and Kalshi. CFTC Approval Mechanism and Duffy’s Criticism In public comments, Duffy said the CFTC simplified an otherwise thorough review process when approving perpetual futures, arguing

Bitcoin (BTC) has not yet recovered from its ups and downs, trading around $63,260 as of June 15. According to Bloomberg, a key committee of the U.S. House of Representatives is preparing legislation to build a cryptocurrency tax framework. With the listing of Grayscale HYPG ETF, the U.S. HYPE spot ETF recorded a total net inflow of $12.1494 million on a single day. Macro Events & Crypto Hotspots 1、According to a Bloomberg report, the U.S. House Ways and Means Committee is preparing legislation

Between 13:15 and 13:30 (UTC) on June 4, 2026, BTC recorded a -0.55% return over a 15-minute short-term cycle, with the price falling back into the 63,066.8 to 63,629.3 USDT range, for an amplitude of 0.88%. This modest continuation of the decline came against the backdrop of BTC breaking below the $64,721 key support level on June 3. Over the past two days, the cumulative drop exceeded 14%, and the market is under extreme stress. The main driver of this move is record outflows from Bitcoin spot

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the macro investor and Key Square Group founder who now oversees U.S. fiscal policy, has publicly championed both the strategic bitcoin reserve established under President Trump’s March 2025 executive order and accelerated Senate passage of the Clarity for Payment S

From 23:00 to 23:15 (UTC) on June 3, 2026, BTC saw a sharp drop of 0.47% within 15 minutes, with a price range of 64,404.8–64,983.4 USDT and a volatility of 0.89%. This sell-off continues the pullback trend that has been ongoing since late May. By that day, the price had fallen about 12% from the weekly high of $75,850, with market volatility noticeably increasing and bearish sentiment prevailing. The main drivers behind this spike are continued outflows of institutional funds, alongside selling

Between 22:00 and 22:15 (UTC) on June 3, 2026, the BTC price saw a sharp intraday drop of -0.67%. The trading range was 65,301.0-65,837.6 USDT, with a swing of 0.82%. The market accelerated downward under short-term technical pressure, and volatility expanded somewhat. The main driver behind this move was the convergence of technical oversold conditions and programmatic sell pressure. The price is currently below the 50-day moving average ($76,655.41) and the 200-day moving average ($78,802.22).

From 21:30 to 21:45 UTC on June 3, 2026, ETH recorded a short-term rally of +1.51% within 15 minutes. The price quickly probed the $1,800.57 to $1,839.91 USDT range, with a 2.18% amplitude. Against the backdrop of overall market pressure and ETH falling back more than 60% from its intra-year high, this move is typical of a technical rebound, with significantly increased market attention. The main driver of this move is technical oversold repair. The RSI indicator is in the 25–31 range, near the

From 19:15 to 19:30 (UTC) on June 3, 2026, Bitcoin fell 0.47% within 15 minutes, trading in the range of 65,586.7-66,044.3 USDT, with an amplitude of 0.69%. Bitcoin continued its weak intraday pattern, with clear selling pressure emerging in the short term as market sentiment cooled further. The main driver behind this move is tighter macro liquidity conditions. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stayed at a high 4.69%, while the 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.201%. The opportunity cost of holdin

U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $3.4 billion in net outflows during the week of June 2026, marking the largest weekly redemption since these products launched in January 2024. The exodus was triggered by a shift in Federal Reserve rate expectations after the Fed's June statement

From May 15 to June 2, 2026, the BTC spot ETF market saw its longest consecutive net outflow period since its debut in January 2024. Within 12 trading days, total outflows amounted to $3.97 billion, shrinking total net assets from $104.29 billion to $85 billion—an approximately 18.5% drop. The scale and duration of this capital exodus have never been seen in prior market periods. Previously, the longest consecutive outflow record was 8 trading days, occurring in late August to early September 20

Bitcoin (BTC) sees a cascading sell-off, with a temporary quote of around $66,878 as of June 3. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) released a draft strategy plan: to provide a regulatory foundation for digital assets, clearly defining the division of authority with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). A UK House of Lords committee urges the country’s central bank to reconsider proposed restrictions on stablecoin holdings. Macro Events & Crypto Market Hotspots The U.S.

From 22:00 to 22:15 (UTC) on June 2, 2026, BTC fell by 0.52% within a 15-minute window, with a price range of 67,207.1 to 67,566.4 USDT and a range of 0.53%. The market broke below the $70,000 psychological level that day; the intraday drop was nearly 6%. This is the first time the level has been lost since April 2026, and sentiment has remained bleak. The core driver behind this anomaly is Strategy breaking the long-standing “never sell” narrative. The company disclosed on June 1 that it sold 3

Between 20:15 and 20:30 (UTC) on June 2, 2026, BTC saw a sharp drop of 0.64% within 15 minutes, falling from 67,393.4 USDT to 66,911.3 USDT, with a swing of 0.72%. Market sentiment deteriorated rapidly; volatility expanded noticeably compared with earlier, and the bears took control in a short period. The main drivers behind this sudden move are ongoing institutional fund outflows and a shift in stance among representative institutions. Strategy (MSTR) sold 32 BTC for the first time on June 1, a

On June 1, 2026, Strategy disclosed that it sold 32 BTC between May 26 and May 31, with an average price of approximately $77,135 and a total value of approximately $2.5 million. The firm’s total holdings exceed 840,000 BTC, and the 32 BTC sold account for only about 0.0038%. However, the market reaction far exceeded the direct impact of the $2.5 million sell order. As of the time of this report on June 2, 2026, Bitcoin was temporarily quoted at $69,500, down 4.4% over the past 24 hours. During

On June 1, 2026, a brief statement from Iran’s Tasnim News Agency tightened global financial markets’ nerves again: Iran’s negotiating team has stopped exchanging information with the United States through intermediaries, and Tehran is considering a comprehensive blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. After the news broke, international oil markets swung violently within 24 hours. WTI crude’s July contract closed up 5.5% to $92.16 per barrel, after briefly touching $94.78 during the day; Brent crude’

From 05:45 to 06:00 (UTC) on June 2, 2026, BTC fell 0.38% within 15 minutes. The price ranged from 70,252.7 to 70,532.5 USDT, with a 0.40% amplitude. This period falls in Asia’s early-morning low-liquidity window. The modest decline is a continuation of risk release after BTC broke below $75,000 on May 28, and market sentiment remains under pressure. The core driving factors behind this abnormal move are a resonance between macro geopolitical risk and worsening fund flows. In late May, escalatio