Commodities (Crude Oil & Copper) & Macro Outlook

Fatih Birol of the IEA predicts a two-year recovery for Middle East oil and gas production post-Iran war, with rising prices if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Global oil demand is projected to decline for the first time since the pandemic.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, OJUICE (Orange Juice) has surged by 4% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market

Hungary's Tisza Party chairman Peter Mogyoró announced that MOL may restart the "Friendship" oil pipeline soon, ensuring fuel supply security. He also aims for protective pricing for fuels post-government formation and is negotiating EU funding, hoping for an agreement during his first visit to Brussels.

A report by Vimeo reveals that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are prompting trade restructuring in the Gulf through alternative logistics methods, driven by increased war risk insurance, congestion, and governance uncertainty.

The PIDS warns that rising global oil prices could push 1.34 million Filipinos into poverty, particularly impacting lower-income families. The report advocates for targeted support rather than broad subsidies, emphasizing vulnerabilities in rural areas and certain regions.

Trump said in Nevada that progress on Iran’s military action is going smoothly, predicted that the fighting would end soon, and emphasized the strength of the U.S. military. He mainly promoted a tax exemption policy for tips and responded to questions from the media. Since the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement was reached, the situation has changed somewhat, but the true timeline and conditions for when the ceasefire would actually end remain unclear, and there are many disagreements between the two sides.

On April 17, the Shanghai Futures Exchange restricted certain clients from opening positions after they exceeded daily transaction limits, violating trading regulations outlined in their management rules.

International oil prices fell on April 17, with WTI crude down 3% to $88.4 per barrel and Brent crude down 2.38% to $97.029 per barrel.

On April 17, the Salamar, a Pakistani-flagged oil tanker, became the first crude oil vessel to pass through the Strait of Hormuz since the U.S. blockade began on April 13, carrying 450,000 barrels of oil from the UAE to Karachi, Pakistan.

Vale reported strong first-quarter results, with iron ore production rising to 69.7 million tonnes and sales increasing by 4%. Copper production also grew by 13%, while nickel reached a five-year high. Financial statements will be released on April 28.

The LME index soared due to geopolitical tensions causing aluminum supply disruptions and rising copper prices. Since February, aluminum prices surged 15%, with significant production halts in the Middle East. JPMorgan reports a severe supply deficit, predicting prolonged market challenges and further price increases.

South Korea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported that Park Jong-han visited Algeria and Libya to discuss emergency oil supply and energy cooperation. He confirmed potential purchases of Libyan heavy crude oil and sought trading quotas from the National Oil Corporation, which expressed willingness to assist pending technical conditions.

Vale's first-quarter 2026 report shows iron ore production at 69.7 million tonnes (up 3%), sales at 68.7 million tonnes (up 4%), copper production at 102,300 tonnes (up 13%), and nickel production at 49,300 tonnes (up 12%).

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced the acquisition of 570,000 barrels of diesel from Brunei and South Korea during his visit to Malaysia. This marks the first strategic material secured under new procurement powers aimed at strengthening energy cooperation in Southeast Asia.

U.S. stock indices closed higher on April 16, with the S&P 500 reaching a record. Tech stocks surged, particularly within the semiconductor sector and Chinese companies. Crude oil prices rose, while precious metals declined. Analysts offer mixed views on the rally's sustainability amidst geopolitical tensions involving Israel and Lebanon.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighted the conflict in the Middle East as a source of inflation and economic slowdown risks. He confirmed that the Monetary Policy Committee will determine suitable measures to reach the 2% inflation target at the upcoming meeting.

In a House hearing, U.S. CFTC Chairman Selig emphasized a “zero-tolerance policy” toward market fraud and manipulation. He responded to questions regarding a $500 million oil futures transaction and said the CFTC is drafting rules to regulate prediction markets. Selig also mentioned a cooperation memorandum of understanding with the SEC to strengthen oversight of digital assets. Given that the CFTC currently has only one commissioner—himself—Selig emphasized operational efficiency and will hire new staff to enhance regulatory capacity.

The IEA's Fatih Birol warned that restoring oil and gas production disrupted by the Iran conflict may take up to two years. The Strait of Hormuz's closure has significantly impacted oil supplies, with emerging economies facing the toughest challenges. Demand is already contracting.

In March, Singapore's non-oil domestic exports surged 15.3% year-on-year, driven by a 74% increase in electronic exports, particularly semiconductors. Non-electronic exports declined, but overall growth continues as the country updates its 2026 export forecast.

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