Commodities (Crude Oil & Copper) & Macro Outlook

China is poised to import a record 800,000 tons of US ethane in April due to supply disruptions from the Middle East. The shift to ethane stems from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, affecting naphtha and LPG imports. This surge aligns with new production capacities and upcoming US-China talks.

Germany's producer price index rose 2.5% month-on-month in March, surpassing expectations of 1.3% and reversing February's 0.5% decline, signaling a rise in producer-level inflation.

The IEA report reveals that global energy demand growth slowed to 1.3% in 2025, influenced by weaker economic growth, milder temperatures, and efficient technologies. Electricity consumption grew 3%, driven by a 38% surge in electric vehicle demand and a 17% increase from data centers.

Iran's First Vice President Mohammad Aref emphasized that restrictions on the country's oil exports are unacceptable, especially while others seek "free safe passage" in the Strait of Hormuz. He linked maritime security to global fuel price stability, warning of significant costs if a free oil market isn't ensured.

Dubai, as the economic core of the United Arab Emirates, is facing wartime challenges. Since the end of February, it has been hit by large numbers of drone and missile attacks, affecting tourism and oil trade. This has led to fewer international flights and concerns about capital outflows, as the UAE is actively negotiating with the United States on a currency swap mechanism to address potential liquidity crises.

A U.S. Navy destroyer destroyed and seized an Iranian cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman, driving up market risk-hedging sentiment, with Bitcoin down 2.5% and Brent crude soaring to $97. Iran vowed retaliation, and diplomatic negotiations face a highly uncertain situation. On Wednesday, the ceasefire deadline has become the focus of market attention.

With tensions rising in the Middle East geopolitical landscape, the Strait of Hormuz has become the focal point of military conflict between the U.S. and Iran. Attacks and seizures of cargo ships have been occurring frequently, and crude oil prices have risen. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement is set to expire soon; peace talks have fallen into a stalemate due to irreconcilable positions, making it difficult to reach an agreement. As a result, the price of Bitcoin has dropped below 74K.

Oil prices rose sharply by over 7% amid escalating US-Iran tensions, causing a drop in US equity futures and a stronger US dollar against major currencies. Risk-sensitive assets faced significant losses.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, XTIUSD (WTI Crude USOIL) has surged by 6% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market

On April 17, just before Iran re-opened the Strait of Hormuz, a sell-off of $760 million in crude oil futures indicated potential insider trading amid rising U.S.-Israel-Iran tensions. The CFTC is investigating these trading spikes linked to policy shifts.

Hussein Ezzi, a senior Houthi official, warned that the Strait of Hormuz could be closed if peace efforts are obstructed, urging the U.S. and allies to stop actions hindering peace, highlighting the strait's significance as a maritime corridor.

Alcoa plans to sell its dormant Massena East aluminum smelter in New York to bitcoin miner NYDIG, with the deal closing by mid-2026. The facility's infrastructure makes it ideal for bitcoin mining, reflecting a trend of repurposing retired industrial sites.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz will halt the export of about 4 million barrels of Iraqi crude oil in the coming three days, according to an Iraqi Oil Ministry official.

Iran is utilizing Bitcoin for oil transit fee settlements via the Strait of Hormuz, but stablecoins dominate actual fund transfers in these transactions.

The Trump-Iran war has severely disrupted global oil supply, cutting over 500 million barrels and causing $50 billion in losses in seven weeks. Analysts predict prolonged impacts on supply chains, with significant recovery delays expected.

Bitcoin rose to $78,000 but dropped to $76,091 following reports of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's actions triggered $762 million in liquidations among traders, with implications for crypto markets as Iran accepts payments in bitcoin and other currencies to navigate sanctions.

China's clean energy exports surged in March, with solar cell exports up 80% and EVs rising 53%, fueled by global demand amidst oil supply issues. However, domestic overcapacity and international tariffs pose challenges to the industry's growth.

India's Foreign Ministry summoned Iran's ambassador to protest IRGC naval attacks on Indian-flagged ships in the Strait of Hormuz, demanding an explanation. One ship carrying crude oil was damaged, but all crew members are safe.

Iran's Foreign Minister affirmed the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial shipping, ensuring freedom of navigation amid regional tensions, crucial for global oil exports.