#夏日创作营 Crypto Daily Briefing 2026-07-21
I. Key changes in the past 24 hours
BTC futures edged higher, with market sentiment in extreme fear — BTC futures closed at $65,553.9 (+0.17%). The intraday high was $65,615.0 and the low was $65,545.0. The Fear and Greed Index held at 29 (Fear), up only 1 point from yesterday, with sentiment still in an extremely bearish range.
ETH whale activity: new wallet withdraws 74k ETH from Gemini and stakes it all — According to Lookonchain monitoring, a newly created address withdrew 74,033 ETH from the Gemini exchange (worth about $136 million) and staked it all. This significantly reduces circulating supply and provides a short-term positive catalyst for the ETH price.
ETH ICO participant inactive for 11 years wakes up, transfers all holdings — An early ETH ICO participant, “0x45BB,” after 11 years of dormancy, moved 2,000 ETH (worth about $3.79 million) to a new wallet. Their initial investment was only $620, for a return of up to 6,113x. This behavior may signal that long-term holders are starting to become active, but short-term selling pressure appears limited.
Institutional BTC options large bets on late July $72,000 — CROWDFUNDINSIDER reports that institutional BTC options traders are buying large volumes of call options expiring at the end of July with a strike price of $72,000. This bet coincides with the Federal Reserve’s late-month decision timeline, suggesting market expectations for a BTC breakout are warming up on growing hopes of rate cuts.
Michael Saylor, founder of MicroStrategy, urges the community to oppose BIP-110 — As the BIP-110 activation deadline approaches, Michael Saylor publicly called on the BTC community to oppose the proposal. BIP-110 concerns the direction of the BTC network upgrade; if it triggers a community split, it could create short-term uncertainty.
Sui launches the Hashi protocol: unlock the BTC DeFi ecosystem — Sui Network announced the launch of the Hashi protocol, allowing BTC to unlock DeFi applications on the Sui chain while remaining on the Bitcoin network. The testnet is set to go live soon. The news boosts the cross-chain DeFi narrative and is favorable for the L1 and interoperability segments.
Risk appetite pressured by selloffs in US and Japanese tech stocks — Japan’s market was closed on Monday, but Nikkei index futures opened up by 340 points. However, US tech stocks have recently been sold off (the Nikkei fell 4.0% on Friday), combined with heightened tensions in the Middle East (the U.S. military launches a new round of strikes on Iran). Global risk assets are under pressure, and it’s difficult for the crypto market to stay unaffected.
II. Data dashboard
Latest BTC futures price: $65,553.9 (24h +0.17%, +$113.9)
Latest ETH price: $1,905 (24h +1.82%), highest $1,918, lowest $1,842
Fear and Greed Index: 29 (Fear), +1 from yesterday
Total crypto market cap: $2.31 hundred billion
BTC market share: 56.6%
ETH market share: 9.9%
Altcoin total market cap: $1.00 trillion
Top 3 sector gainers: LP Tokens (+35.1%), Strategy Games (+25.8%), Pump Fund Portfolio (+21.4%)
Top 3 sector decliners: BagsApp Ecosystem (-13.5%), Fighting Games (-11.8%), Guild and Scholarship (-11.2%)
Technical pattern analysis
1) Market sentiment and sector rotation: Fear and Greed Index at 29 (Fear). For multiple consecutive days it has been in the extreme fear zone, but it rose slightly by 1 point versus yesterday, indicating that sell pressure has eased a bit. In terms of sectors, AI Agents (+2.0%), Layer 2 (+1.5%), and Layer 1 (+0.8%) led gains. The Meme sector (+1.0%) also saw a rebound, suggesting capital is starting to rotate from defensive assets into high-beta segments. BTC market share at 56.6% remains relatively high, indicating the market is still dominated by BTC and altcoins have not yet formed an independent trend. Altcoin total market cap at $1.00 trillion is broadly synchronized with BTC; market breadth remains limited.
2) BTC technical structure: The current price of $65,208 is above the pivot point PP ($64,718) and the 50EMA ($65,048), keeping the near-term bias bullish. Overhead resistance is at R1 ($66,336) and R2 ($67,417). Support is S1 ($63,637) and S2 ($62,019). The 30-day volume control point POC is at $64,140. The top of the value area at $64,829 is close to the current price, forming short-term support. The 200SMA ($72,847) is still a strong long-term resistance. Weekly open price is $64,723; the current price is above the weekly open, keeping the week bias bullish. Resonance zone: $64,140-$64,829 (POC + top of value area) forms strong support; $66,336-$67,417 (R1-R2) forms strong resistance.
3) ETH and altcoin linkage: ETH’s 24h gain (+1.82%) is clearly stronger than BTC (+0.17%), and the ETH/BTC exchange rate is strengthening. Whale staking of large amounts of ETH (74k ETH) reduces circulating supply, directly driving ETH relative strength. BTC market share at 56.6% remains high, but ETH leading gains may hint at the early stages of an altcoin season. If ETH can continue breaking above $1,918 (intraday high) and hold above $1,950, it will confirm a shift of short-term dominance.
III. Short-term analysis (1-5 days)
Technical: BTC price is above the 50EMA ($65,048) and PP ($64,718), and the short-term technical structure is bullish. RSI (data unavailable for now): if it rebounds from oversold levels, it will confirm rebound momentum. Key resistances R1 ($66,336) and R2 ($67,417) are near-term upside targets. If it breaks below S1 ($63,637), it would return to weakness.
Sentiment: Fear and Greed Index at 29; extreme fear often corresponds to market bottom areas. However, sentiment reversal requires a catalyst, and there is currently no strong positive event. Institutional options bets on $72,000, but with only 10 days left until expiration—delivery conditions need to be watched closely.
Event drivers: The BIP-110 community controversy is the biggest short-term uncertainty. If the community splits or the upgrade is blocked, it could trigger panic selling. Conversely, if consensus is reached, it will remove a negative factor. The Middle East situation (U.S. strikes on Iran) and US tech stock performance will continue to influence risk appetite.
Bullish factors: ETH whale staking reduces supply; institutional call options positioning; technicals holding above key moving averages.
Bearish factors: BIP-110 community split risk; Middle East geopolitical tension; US tech stock selloff wave.
IV. Medium-term analysis (1-3 months)
Policy window: The late-July Federal Reserve meeting is the core node. The market is pricing in rate-cut expectations; if the Fed releases dovish signals (e.g., hints at a September rate cut), it could push BTC upward into the $70,000-$72,000 range. Otherwise, if the Fed is hawkish beyond expectations, it could trigger another round of selloffs.
Data validation: US CPI (3.5%) and core PCE (3.4%) are still above the 2% target, and sticky inflation may limit the room for rate cuts. The 10Y breakeven inflation rate (2.25%) suggests long-term inflation expectations remain stable, but elevated real rates (2.31%) suppress risk assets like BTC.
Institutional expectations: Institutions like MicroStrategy continue to increase holdings; new protocols such as Sui unlocking BTC liquidity indicate a willingness for long-term allocation. However, the 200SMA ($72,847) remains a long-term trend line. If it cannot be effectively broken within three months, the medium-term may fall into a $60,000-$70,000 range-bound consolidation.
Ranking of key variables:
① Fed rate-cut path (biggest impact)
② BIP-110 upgrade outcome
③ Middle East geopolitical risk
V. Long-term analysis (6-12 months)
Macro trend: Global central banks gradually move toward easing; real rates could fall back from the 2.31% high, benefiting BTC as “digital gold” through valuation repricing. But US fiscal deficit and debt ceiling issues may trigger concerns about dollar creditworthiness, indirectly increasing BTC’s safe-haven demand.
Structural changes: Cross-chain protocols such as Sui Hashi unlocking the BTC DeFi ecosystem will activate liquidity from $1.00 trillion idle BTC, driving BTC’s transformation from a “store of value” to a “productive asset.” In the long run, this is a major positive. Quantum computing threats (Horizen warns) may still be far off, but they could become a risk factor in long-term narratives.
Repricing of the center: If the Fed cumulatively cuts rates by 100-150bp before end-2026, BTC’s central price could shift upward from $60,000-$70,000 to $80,000-$100,000. Still, tail risks such as an AI bubble burst or a global recession need to be watched.
Bullish factors: Expansion of the BTC DeFi ecosystem; expectations of easier global liquidity; acceleration of institutionalization.
Bearish factors: Quantum computing technology breakthroughs; tighter regulation (e.g., South Korea strengthening regulation on leveraged ETFs); inflation rebounds leading to delayed rate cuts.
VI Focus points
Short term: BIP-110 activation deadline (in the coming days); US tech stock performance; progress in the Middle East situation
Medium term: late-July Federal Reserve meeting (July 29-30); release of US July CPI/PCE data; Sui Hashi testnet launch
Long term: US midterm elections in November 2026; global central bank policy shift timing; progress in quantum computing commercialization