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Crypto_Xincheng

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Web3 Investor | Crypto Practical Trader | BTC/ETH Dollar-Cost Averaging Sharing | Market Analysis + Jungle Opportunities | Weekly Practical Tips | Helping You Avoid Pitfalls and Seize Opportunities
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The crypto market has begun to retreat. For Bitcoin, what gets shaken out is often not the end, but an entry position.
Spot prices are still in the $82k–$86k range. Monday’s move toward around $87k was pushed back, the US Dollar Index is around 102.5, Treasury yields are hovering around 5.3%, and ETFs saw net outflows of about $90 million yesterday.
The decline itself is not the opportunity; the opportunity comes when prices fall to levels where people are afraid to buy. Watch three things: whether $82k holds or gets breached, and whether ETF outflows shift from rotational outflows to consecut
BTC-1.77%
October 6 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis
✊Fundamentals:
Friday’s nonfarm payrolls are the main focus. U.S. employment increased by about 29k in September, versus expectations of about 84k–90k; the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%.
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield remains around 5.4%, its highest level since 2004, keeping the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets relatively high.
On October 2, the SEC approved the listing of Volatility Shares’ 3x Bitcoin futures ETP on Cboe BZX.
On October 1, Citi raised its 12-month target from $82k to $113k.
The Fear and Greed Index was
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Key Web3 Events This Week (10.5-10.11)
October 5
StablecoinX's ENA holdings will be permanently unlocked on October 5, but selling still requires approval from the Ethena Foundation;
The CFTC plans to seek public comments on AI computing power futures, while CME Group plans to launch two contracts on October 5
October 6
The Ethereum Foundation will activate the Glamsterdam upgrade on the Sepolia testnet on October 6;
Monad hinted that it will launch a privacy service on October 6;
BlackRock plans to implement a 1-for-3 reverse split for its ETH ETF on October 6
The Zcash NU7 mainnet upgrade wi
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U.S. September nonfarm payrolls will be released tonight at 20:30. The market expects 84k–90k new jobs, the unemployment rate to hold at 4.1%, and average hourly earnings to rise 0.3% month over month. August’s 162k was nearly three times expectations, so this pullback is a return to normal, not a weakening trend.
My view: Don’t focus on the headline or compare it with August. Layoffs are already near multi-decade lows, while labor supply is being constrained by tighter immigration, so an additional 50k jobs per month is enough to keep the unemployment rate contained. Therefore, 80k–100k jobs
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  • 1
In this public-chain cycle, I’ll concentrate my positions in ETH and SOL, with SUI as a satellite position. Most of the rest are rotation trades, not core holdings.
ETH
The deepest capital is in the settlement layer, stablecoins, DeFi, RWA, and ETFs. Its upside may not be the greatest, but it is the hardest to replace. Suitable as a core public-chain holding.
SOL
On-chain activity, fees, consumer applications, and DEX volume are all stronger, while volatility is also higher. In a bull market, its upside is usually greater than ETH’s, but its drawdowns can also be harsher.
SUI
There is still
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  • 2
The market has once again fallen into a choppy phase, accompanied by boring price action. In this kind of phase, the easiest ways to lose money are not getting the direction wrong, but overtrading, using excessive leverage, and chasing rallies or selling into drops.
What to do during a range-bound period:
1. Stay alive first: reduce leverage and control position size
High leverage is most likely to get hit from both sides in a range. First reduce your position to a level where you can withstand a 20%–30% drawdown without panicking. People with no positions are much more comfortable than those
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September 30 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis
✊ News:
Geopolitics and risk appetite: Trump rejected statements related to an Iran ceasefire, and the market is repricing “energy reflation + Middle East uncertainty.”
A tighter interest-rate path: There was already a rate hike in September, while subsequent PMI data and oil prices pushed up expectations of “another hike/higher for longer.”
Corporate buying continues: Strategy disclosed that it bought another 1,665 BTC last week at an average price of approximately $85,681, totaling about $142.7 million. This directly confirms the $84k–$86k cos
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I think this cycle is essentially a buyback bull market. Put more directly, protocols with real revenue are programmatically channeling cash flow back into their tokens, making buybacks the easiest narrative to price this cycle.
🧐For example, several projects that have performed relatively strongly this year:
UNI: After opening up protocol fees, external seekers can only take the fees by burning UNI
AAVE: Revenue-driven buybacks, later changed to a more automated model
PUMP: Approximately 50% of net revenue is used to buy and burn tokens on the open market; cumulatively, more than $460 millio
UNI-8.53%
AAVE-4.62%
PUMP+0.27%
RAY+2.53%
$BTC The big players are all falling, but $PUMP keeps surging
Is this the power of buybacks? The tokens involved in this round of buybacks have all performed well
I think it's mainly because Pump has become a rare shovel-seller in crypto
Tokens can be launched in minutes, and you can immediately gamble on a bonding curve, with the barrier to entry cut to almost zero. Its fees don't depend on who wins, only on whether anyone trades
It has nailed the PVP generation: they want instant feedback and little preaching. Even rugs can become memes, while news coins and political coins keep getting lau
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September 28 $BTC Market Analysis
Bitcoin's direction remains upward, but as mentioned repeatedly over the past two days, attention should be paid to the risk of bearish divergence on the daily chart. The strength of its rise is gradually weakening at the current level, so going forward, as long as it fails to firmly hold above 86700, attention should be paid to the risk of bearish divergence on the daily chart.
Judging from the current market changes and momentum, I personally believe that short-term risks outweigh opportunities. Therefore, watch whether 82300 can hold. If it fails to hold,
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This week, Strategy + Strive bought a combined 2,305 BTC, worth approximately $183 million. After a three-week pause, Saylor made a move again, while Strive bought even more than he did.
My view: This is a recovery, not a climax. Buying remains concentrated among a handful of treasury companies, and listed companies’ overall accumulation is still far below 2025 levels. It adds to market sentiment, but cannot become the main engine. What really matters is whether more companies will follow near the cost basis, rather than repeatedly reposting how much these two bought.
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SUI’s rally has been impressive
I think it is mainly driven by conference expectations, DeepBook, the RWA narrative, and a short squeeze all coming together, while the broader market is also being supportive
In my personal view, it is a good long-term asset, because SUI’s Layer 1 fundamentals are competitive, and its payment and stablecoin narratives also have potential
If you are trading short-term, what you are buying now is the October Singapore conference, not already-realized cash flow. Once the positive news materializes, it will be priced in; if expectations fall short, the gains will b
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SUI5S+23.87%
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SUI-4.67%
$DOGE I used to look down on Dogecoin, but now I’ve even started researching it.
Dogecoin’s strengths lie in its fast transfers, extremely low fees, strong community recognition, good liquidity, and existing institutional channels such as spot ETFs. Its potential comes from payment use cases, the popularity of Musk/X-related topics, and its high beta in bull markets.
Its shortcomings are also obvious: there is no maximum supply, around 5 billion coins are added annually, and its price relies more heavily on sentiment.
But I think the spot ETF channel and Musk’s influence alone are already eno
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$BTC Bitcoin’s key “life-or-death” level is here~
Bitcoin remains very strong, not even retesting the previous high of 82,200. As long as 84,200 holds at the current level, it will challenge the previous high again.
Here’s the key point: the level to challenge is 86,700. If it fails to rise above this level, it would mean a rebound and second top test on the daily chart, which I personally believe is relatively likely.
Therefore, you can go long at the current level and take profits in batches around 86,700.
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Circle minted an additional $500 million USDC on Solana—not money printing, but someone exchanging real dollars for on-chain liquidity.
Two transactions of $250 million each today, totaling $500 million. USDC is backed 1:1 by reserves, and minting usually means institutions, market makers, or exchanges want to get dollars onto Solana. With low fees, high throughput, and native issuance, money continues to flow to this chain—and is also being diverted from Ethereum.
Don't overinterpret it:
Minting ≠ all of it immediately entering the market
More stablecoin liquidity ≠ SOL automatically rising
C
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The market has once again fallen into a situation where everyone is watching Bitcoin’s lead.👀
Because $BTC is currently consolidating at a high level, having risen from 57800 to a peak of 85300—a full 50% gain—without a decent pullback despite such a large increase.
Because the macro outlook is still unclear, all altcoins are currently waiting for Bitcoin’s signal: will it continue breaking higher, or will it pull back?
Once Bitcoin’s direction becomes clear, altcoins will follow. Whether prices rise or fall, the cost will not be too high. If they move against the trend, however, the cost wi
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$SOL Solana has been quite strong this round, doubling from the bottom. Its performance remains steady for a public blockchain, and I think its continued rise this time can be attributed to the following reasons:
① ETFs are continuing to buy
ETFs need to buy SOL in the spot market every day, creating a sustained, measurable source of institutional buying.
② The breakout triggered short covering
When it broke through around 120, reports said that approximately $18 million–$19.5 million worth of SOL short positions were liquidated.
③ The upgrade and tokenized stocks gave institutions a narrative
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Today, Saturday, the market remains primarily range-bound
Yesterday, my view was to watch whether 85300 could hold. If it fails to hold, the price will continue consolidating below the neckline. Yesterday, it reached this level and then moved sideways, in line with our expectations. The current view is the same: the trading range is between 82300 and 85300
In the short term, as long as 83200 is not broken to the downside, I think there is a chance of another upward move to test 86600 before pulling back
To sum up, the market will remain primarily in consolidation intraday, and next week’
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