Crypto_Xincheng

I just placed a short order at 2500 for $ETH . Here are my reasons:
① The weekly chart is encountering resistance at the zero line, while the daily chart has yet to firmly break above the key resistance at 2530 and continues to show bearish divergence
② The funding rate has turned positive, and longs are somewhat crowded
③ The interest-rate meeting is likely to be cautious, so I’m betting on a recovery move before the meeting
Target: 2452–2380
Stop-loss: 2550
If you agree, give me a follow. I’ll continue updating my trading logic.

September 9 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis
News:
Strong nonfarm payrolls pushed the probability of a rate hike on 9/16 to around 60%; oil prices are near 100; after the Liquid sidechain was hacked, a white hat returned most of the funds, weighing on sentiment. This week’s focus is the 9/11 CPI.
Fund flows:
ETFs still saw large net inflows last week, with a small outflow on the 8th; institutions have not withdrawn, while whales have been moving coins to exchanges in the short term. The Greed Index is around 66–69.
Technical analysis:
The daily chart remains above the moving averages, but 8

USD/JPY fell below 155. In one week, it plunged from above 160 to around 153, marking its strongest move since February. 155 was the floor established by the April intervention and the joint Japan-U.S. support operation in July. This time, it broke through without confirmation of a new intervention, as stop-losses on short positions and options hedging hit at the same time.
The backdrop is narrowing interest-rate differentials. Swaps are pricing in about a 98% chance of a 25-basis-point BOJ rate hike on September 18. Real wages have been rising for consecutive months, and officials say they sh

The Strait of Hormuz has started charging tolls again, sending oil prices soaring
Brent is back at 97–99, while WTI has risen to 94, rebounding about 18% in two weeks. Over the weekend, the U.S. military attacked an Iranian oil tanker, Iran attacked a U.S. vessel, and Saudi facilities were attacked again. Daily traffic through the strait has fallen to around 10 vessels, the lowest since May. One-fifth of the world's seaborne crude passes through here; with fewer ships, higher insurance premiums, and less shadow shipping, there is less oil that can actually be delivered.
More importantly, inven

Bitcoin perpetuals are worth about $23.9 billion, while altcoins total about $40 billion. For the first time in 21 months, altcoin positions have exceeded Bitcoin positions. But Bitcoin can be broken down further: shorts slightly outnumber longs in overall notional, while retail accounts are net long, leveraged funds on CME are net short, and spot ETFs are buying. Above $81k, about $470 million in shorts would be liquidated; below $79k, about $450 million in longs would be liquidated, leaving the two sides nearly balanced.
Altcoins do not provide a total figure for short positions across the e

September 7 BTC ETH Market Analysis
BTC
Bitcoin has been ranging in the current 76000 to 82300 zone for half a month. Personally, I believe it is time for the market to make a move from this level.
The weekly MACD is already close to reaching the corresponding resistance. After making a high at this level on the daily chart, it failed to effectively hold above 82300, while the daily chart continues to show divergence and the upward momentum is continuously weakening.
The four-hour chart has been moving around above the moving average, but personally, I believe the risks at this level still out

Last week’s spot ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum attracted a combined $1.2 billion. BTC saw about $987 million, while ETH saw about $216 million. The money was clearly skewed toward the leading assets.
The pace was chaotic at first, then synchronized. BTC saw $217 million in inflows on Monday; on Tuesday, it shed $237 million, the only net outflow of the week. On Wednesday, BTC saw $101 million in inflows, while ETH ended its 12-day winning streak with $48 million in outflows. Thursday brought a reversal—BTC posted $731 million in a single day, its largest inflow since mid-January; ETH simultane

This week's Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs: chaotic at first, then aligned, with Thursday delivering the decisive blow.
BTC saw $217 million flow back on Monday, then gave up $237 million on Tuesday; ETH, meanwhile, extended its winning streak to 12 consecutive days. On Wednesday, $101 million flowed back into Bitcoin, while ETH's winning streak ended with $48 million in outflows. Thursday changed everything—BTC attracted $731 million in a single day, its largest inflow since mid-January and the third-largest this year; ETH also saw $141 million in inflows. The two markets combined for approxi

Bitcoin surged sharply last night
Starting from around $77.3k, it reached as high as approximately $82.2k and reclaimed the $81k level, gaining about 5% on the day. This marks the first time since May that it has climbed back above $81k.
The drivers were straightforward: Fed officials signaled support for holding rates steady, cooling rate-hike expectations; spot ETFs saw approximately $100 million in inflows the previous day, and risk appetite rebounded. ETH and SOL also gained around 5%, while the total crypto market capitalization rose in tandem.
It pulled back slightly to around $80.8k thi

BTC’s rebound this time reached the weekly resistance level at 82300, so the current position constitutes a daily-level departure leg.
As long as 82300 fails to hold firmly, attention should be paid to the risk of a daily-level correction.

September 4 BTC ETH Market Analysis
BTC
Yesterday, I told everyone that there would be a rebound at the one-hour level. When we looked at the market this morning, it had rebounded as expected, with Bitcoin rising to around 82,300 before pulling back. The 82,300 level is also a resistance level on the weekly timeframe. Only by holding above this level can we look for a larger-scale rebound.
The market will definitely see major volatility today because tonight we will get the nonfarm payrolls data. The market has already rebounded in advance. From the daily timeframe, we need to note that this m

An analyst has issued a warning that Bitcoin could fall back to $50,000 this autumn, as rate-hike expectations combined with the stalled Clarity Act create dual pressure on the market!
First, U.S. inflation remains relatively resilient, causing rate-hike expectations to resurface. A high-interest-rate environment will continue to suppress risk-asset valuations.
Second, the highly anticipated Clarity crypto bill has reached an impasse. With a procedural vote scheduled for September 15, its probability of passing this year has fallen below 20%. Regulatory expectations have fallen short, slowing

September 3 BTC and ETH Market Analysis
BTC
The market has not yet broken out of the consolidation range, but changes are beginning to emerge on the daily timeframe. The MACD has formed a death cross at a high level, so the candlesticks currently need to be repaired through gradual consolidation, dragging the MACD closer to the zero axis before making another upward move.
On the intraday one-hour chart, there will be a rebound. The key level to watch is 79000—can it hold above this level? If not, it will continue consolidating within the 76000–79000 range.
ETH
Ethereum is moving roughly in lin

The USD/CNY exchange rate has fallen steadily since April 2025, from 7.35 to the current 6.71.
The USD/CNY exchange rate continues to decline, essentially reflecting the relative appreciation of the RMB, with the rate now around 6.72. This reflects both a weaker dollar due to the expansion of U.S. Treasury debt, policy expectations, and capital diversion, as well as the effects of China’s exports, foreign-exchange settlement, and policy support. It is not a collapse of the dollar, but a shift in relative strength.
This is broadly positive for the crypto market, but does not mean an immediate s

The market has almost fully priced in a Bank of Japan rate hike on September 18. Overnight index swap pricing shows that the probability of a rate hike at the September 18 meeting is approximately 97%–98%, with the policy rate highly likely to rise from the current 1.0% to 1.25%. This would mark another tightening following the June rate hike to a 31-year high. Meanwhile, Japan’s 10-year government bond yield recently briefly broke above 3%, hitting its highest level since 1996, indicating that the bond market has already begun pricing in continued normalization.
The Federal Reserve’s next rat

ETH has already reached the lower end of the range at 2380, in line with our expectations
The current 4-hour bearish move is not over yet. Simply put, if support forms at 2380 and a rebound begins, ETH will still come back down if the rebound fails to break through and hold above 2425. The support on the way down is around 2230.