Crypto_Xincheng

This oil rally is not driven by a sudden surge in demand, but by supply risks being repriced once again.
After a month of calm, the U.S.-Iran conflict has flared up again: the U.S. military struck a rocket site on Larak Island, Iran retaliated, and Trump vowed to “hit them hard.” Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plunged, putting roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil shipments under renewed pressure.
The conflict has lasted more than six months. Some Middle Eastern production capacity has been damaged and is difficult to restore, global inventories have been drained, and U.S.

September 1 BTC and ETH Technical Market Analysis
$BTC
Weekly: After the weekly close, bulls launched an upward assault to 79000, while bears pressed downward. The market is oscillating around the highs and is about to shift.
Daily: The market is oscillating below 79000. Watch whether MACD can form a death cross at high levels. If it continues oscillating above 79000, beware of pullback risks.
4-hour: Rebound momentum is weakening; beware of pullback risks.
Summary: Beware of pullback risks. Support below: 76000-73000
$ETH
Weekly: It is about to face resistance at the MACD zero line, and the

As of August 30, 2026
Bitcoin’s largest treasury company, Strategy (MicroStrategy, MSTR), holds 845,050 BTC (total cost of approximately $63.7B, average price of $75,412)
Ethereum’s largest treasury company, Bitmine (BMNR), holds 5,901,112 ETH (total cost of approximately $19.7B, average price of approximately $3,343)
Last week (8/24–8/30): Strategy net bought 4,603 BTC / approximately $370 million, while Bitmine net bought 53,501 ETH / approximately $131–134 million.

BTC remains in the high-level consolidation range of 76000–80500. Judging from the weekly close, there is considerable divergence between bulls and bears at the current level.
The focus going forward should remain on the 4h and daily charts, especially the price action around the 4h consolidation area. There are two possibilities:
1. If it continues to consolidate without holding above 79000 and remains around the lower end of the range, watch for an accelerated decline;
2. If it holds above 79000 and consolidates above that level, watch for another push higher.

Why did Bitcoin plunge yesterday? 📉
Simply put, two major pieces of news hit the market at the same time:
$6.4 billion in options expired
Around 81,700 BTC options on Deribit expired in a concentrated event, accounting for nearly 20% of the platform’s open interest. The maximum pain point was at $68,000-$70k, with positions heavily concentrated near the current price. Market-maker hedging and position rolling amplified short-term volatility.
Waller’s Jackson Hole speech was hawkish
New Fed Chair Kevin Waller made it clear:
“The 2% inflation target is firm and fixed”
Inflation will not

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has just delivered his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole
The core content was hawkish, with the main points as follows:
The 2% inflation target is non-negotiable: He explicitly stated that “the Fed’s 2% price stability target, as measured by PCE, is firm and fixed.”
Inflation remains too high, with no clear improvement in its trend: Although this summer’s PCE and CPI data were better than expected, “that does not indicate that the underlying trend has meaningfully improved.”
Financial conditions are not tight: “Overall, I find it difficult to descri

From BTC’s weekly chart, price and trend have reached an extremely critical level
First, the weekly chart is about to reach the neckline around 82,200, but has not broken through
Second, the weekly MACD has not moved above the zero line
Third, upward momentum has clearly weakened across all timeframes
Finally, the macro environment remains volatile with many uncertainties, and there is a lack of clear positive catalysts
Therefore, the closer we get to 82,200, the more alert we should be to the risk of a trend reversal. For now, I still see this as a rebound rather than a reversal
#BTC重返81000美元

Tonight, $6.4 billion worth of Bitcoin options expire!
At 16:00 Beijing time on Friday (08:00 UTC), approximately 81,700 BTC options will expire on Deribit, with a notional value of about $6.44 billion, accounting for nearly 20% of the platform’s total open interest.
Approximately 44.6k are calls and 37.1k are puts, with a Put/Call ratio of 0.83, indicating an overall bullish bias
Max pain: $68k-$70k
Most concentrated open interest: $75k ($236 million notional) and $80k ($157 million notional)
Notional value within 5% of the current price exceeds $500 million
Over the past week, BTC surged fro

ETH has reached the end of the triangle, and a market shift is imminent
I still stand by my view: there will be a downward pullback at this level
As long as it cannot hold at 2530, it has to move lower

Bitcoin has once again touched 80k, but the Fear and Greed Index has already reached 70.
Based on historical market movements, a correction usually begins when it reaches around 83 on average, with the highest level reaching only 94.
To borrow Buffett’s words: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.”

I think it will be very difficult for gold to see a major rally going forward.
In the short term, it will be difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, while real interest rates remain elevated. The cost of holding gold as a zero-yield asset is too high.*
In the first half of 2026, gold prices pulled back nearly 30% from the year-to-date high of nearly $5,600, mainly because the market suddenly shifted from “rate cuts this year” to “there may still be rate hikes.” After the new Fed Chair Warsh took office, his hawkish stance, along with the dot plot and comments at the meeting, c

SOL Is About to Plunge📉
Over the past two days, the market and major self-media accounts have been mentioning that SOL is about to adjust its burn mechanism. Before the burn mechanism is implemented, it can continue to release bullish news in advance, but once the positive news comes out, it will become bearish.
SOL’s current trend has reached a critical juncture. The chart below shows the four-hour order book. The four-hour chart has formed three distinct moves, with the strength of each upward move continuously weakening, while the MACD shows a bearish divergence. Going forward, note that i

BICO could be the dark horse of this cycle
This cycle, it has risen by just over 40% from the bottom. Combined with the two previous explosive rallies, the first rose 250% and the second 700%.
From the chart, the four-hour timeframe has already entered bullish territory. At this level on the daily timeframe, a new rally is about to begin. Currently, all timeframes are continuously pushing upward like a bulldozer, with the upper range likely centering around 0.04–0.07.

Recently, U.S. spot XRP ETFs have recorded net inflows for 8–9 consecutive trading days, reaching approximately $23.87 million on August 25 alone. Bitwise led the way, with cumulative net inflows exceeding $1.59 billion and assets under management of approximately $1.46 billion.
This represents institutional funds continuously buying XRP through compliant channels, reflecting recognition of Ripple’s cross-border payments business and its status following regulatory clarity, as well as growing demand among traditional investors for regulated crypto products. The consecutive inflows indicate str

This is ETH’s next move
It is still creating the impression that it will continue to rise, but in reality it is already distributing at the highs. As long as the price fails to reclaim 2530, it will move as shown in the chart.

NVIDIA Q2: Revenue hit $96.2 billion, doubling year over year, while data center revenue reached $89 billion, up 117% year over year. Next-quarter guidance is $108 billion, with approximately 70% growth projected for fiscal 2028—still the supply-constrained version.
Jensen Huang summed it up in one sentence: Computing power is already revenue.
The AI infrastructure cycle is not over yet, but growth is shifting from “explosive” to “accelerating on top of a massive base”—and that is the truly difficult part. Revenue from China remains excluded from guidance, with geopolitical and political risks

8.27 BTC: Up or down?
Bitcoin's current key levels are on the daily and four-hour charts, especially the four-hour chart.
As mentioned yesterday, this area will still mainly consolidate sideways. The current outlook remains the same.
The market is now repairing the four-hour high-level short position. After that is complete, we need to watch whether the daily chart can form a death cross. After the death cross, it may move upward to make a new high, and this wave of price action will then be more or less over.
In summary, the intraday consolidation range will still revolve around 77800～81000.

Headline PCE: approximately +0.1% month-on-month and approximately 3.6% year-on-year; core PCE: approximately +0.2% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year. Therefore, core PCE was fully in line with expectations, while headline PCE was slightly hotter than expected
This PCE report was “neutral to slightly hot, with no cooling surprise.” Core PCE matching expectations indicates that inflation stickiness has not eased significantly. Combined with profit-taking after the rapid rebound driven by the buyback news, crypto naturally came under pressure and pulled back.

ETH Historically, after trading sideways like this, even if it rises from this level, it will eventually come back down, with the only difference being how deep the pullback is.
#ETH突破$2500