Crypto_Xincheng

U.S. spot ETFs this week: BTC outflows followed by inflows, ETH sees consecutive redemptions (9/14–9/18)
BTC
· 15th: -$450 million; 16th: -$296 million, with approximately $750 million flowing out over the two days
· 17th: +$160 million; inflows resumed on the 18th (depending on methodology, +$154 million to +$322 million)
· Still saw net outflows for the week; approximately -$500 million to -$700 million on a 7-day basis
ETH
· +$121 million on Monday, followed by consecutive outflows
· Three consecutive outflow days from the 15th to 17th totaling approximately $405 million, followed by anothe

September 19 $BTC Market Analysis
Yesterday, it briefly surged to around 81,700, reaching the upper boundary of the range. It is now facing a critical point between the bulls and bears.
If the fast and slow lines of the weekly MACD cross above the zero axis next, a weekly rebound will truly be underway. They are currently hovering around the zero axis.
The current focus is on the daily chart: whether this rebound is merely a spike or a breakout. If it is a breakout, pay close attention to whether the 82,300 level can be firmly reclaimed. If it cannot hold, watch for a daily-chart pullback. If

Sometimes when we invest, we overthink things, read too many messages, and listen to too many people's opinions, which ultimately causes us either to miss the opportunity or suffer losses
Looking at the bigger picture, many of the data analysis tools available in the market are worth using, such as the Ahr999 HODLing Index and the Fear and Greed Index
These indicators all give us corresponding signals, but we still don't trust them, so we end up listening to many bloggers say that prices could fall even lower, causing many people to miss the opportunity to enter the market
For example, with th

In two days, $UNI has gained 40%. Focusing on short-term risks now, there will definitely be considerable risks. You might as well take a look at $AAVE —they are also projects that have continued generating revenue during the bear market. I told everyone during my livestream in July that I was bullish on these two assets. At the time, many people thought they were old coins not worth investing in, but looking at this cycle, they were wrong. As the industry gradually matures, there will be fewer and fewer opportunities driven purely by narratives.
AAVE’s advantage is not that its interest rate

$UNI is really much stronger than expected, surging 45% in a single day.
A lot of people looked down on it before, but throughout this bear market I’ve been telling everyone that UNI has great potential in this cycle, because we’re finding that the ones moving faster are all generating consistent cash flow. We can simply apply the same logic used when buying stocks to crypto.
Last time, I said in the livestream that I would buy if it retested around 4.9, but it never gave me the opportunity. If I enter now, however, the risk is definitely higher. At this level, I still maintain my view: I’ll

Circle equipped Arc with BlackRock and Visa as block producers; meme launchpads were what filled its blocks on day one.
$410 million in DEX volume, with launchpads capturing 82%; Arguspad alone accounted for $200 million and minted over 80k tokens that day. An institutional chain with a retail launch—the same cold start as Robinhood Chain.
This shows the chain is connected, but also that the narrative and users are temporarily out of sync. What really matters is not how noisy day one is, but whether stablecoins and tokenized assets catch up in the second week—or whether only a pile of dead tok

The Fed’s rate hike landed overnight, with the dot plot sending a hawkish signal and suggesting that high interest rates may remain in place for longer.
Going forward, closely monitor the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and Brent crude oil, the two key indicators. Rising Treasury yields weigh on growth assets, while higher oil prices support inflation.
With both indicators strengthening in tandem, pressure on risk assets is increasing. It is not advisable to blindly bet on a major rebound at this stage; be sure to control position sizes.

Let me draw a chart for everyone to take a look at. This is also why I have always firmly believed there would be an opportunity for a pullback on the weekly timeframe.
The logic of the weekly timeframe combined with the price action that launched the 2023 bull market is actually quite similar.
Before the 2023 bull market began, the MACD also formed a golden cross and continued to diverge, before moving to near the zero line for a confirmation pullback.
At present, the weekly MACD is hovering below the zero line. Combined with the candlesticks on the main chart, this indicates that the price w

$BTC Market Analysis
If my followers have been following my analysis this time around, I have consistently told everyone that 82300 was a temporary top and advised everyone to reduce their positions.
The Clarity Act was stopped at the Senate door early this morning, which was also within my expectations. At this current level, my personal view remains that we will see the 66700 to 72000 range.
At this point, we need to look at the adjustment cycle on the weekly and daily charts: on the weekly chart, watch the MACD zero-line resistance; on the daily chart, watch the MACD zero-line support.
So

The CLARITY Act’s procedural vote in the Senate failed, with approximately 49 votes in favor and 50 against, in line with expectations.
It received no Democratic support, while four Republicans voted against it. This is not a final rejection; the bill remains on the agenda.
A revote is highly unlikely in the short term: Congress recesses in early October and will not reconvene until after the November midterm elections. Tillis introduced a motion to reconsider, but no specific date has been set. More likely, it will have to wait until after the election or the new Congress in 2027. This year’s

$PONS isn't falling mainly because of its token burn rules
PONS burns are not a one-time burn event; rather, PONS is bought back with the fees and then sent to a burn address.
First, we need to know where the money comes from:
Pons is a token issuance platform on Robinhood Chain. Trading in the pool incurs about a 1% pool fee: new projects generally allocate 70% to creators and 30% to the protocol; older factories use a 90%/10% split. Of the protocol's share, the policy is to use approximately 80% to buy PONS and retain 20% for operations. This is 80% of the protocol's share, not 80% of the

$BTC In my view, whether the news tonight or tomorrow night can affect it or not, the result will still be a temporary top
Even if Bitcoin🫓 continues bouncing upward, reaching 82300 or even higher, it will ultimately drop into the 72300-66700 range
The reasons are:
News: no certain positive catalyst to drive it
Capital: no incremental funds entering the market
Technical: weekly and daily charts face resistance and need a pullback
Sentiment: the Fear and Greed Index is 69, which falls into the greed category
In conclusion, none of the above aspects is sufficient to support the start and revers

September 15 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis
💫News:
The crypto market is relatively independent: The AI sector fell after Anthropic's CEO called for slowing model development, Nasdaq futures fell 1.65%, while Bitcoin rose.
Two major events this week: today's procedural vote on the Senate's CLARITY Act (a regulatory framework viewed by the market as potentially positive); the Fed's FOMC meeting on Wednesday, with an 85%–90% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike.
Other developments: Some companies reduced their holdings (KULR fully exited), while Strive made a small increase; rising oil

The market has priced in an 80% chance of a September rate hike, but I disagree.
This is not a denial that CPI is running hot: headline rose 0.4% month-on-month, core rose 0.3%, and both gasoline and shelter are at the top. The problem is that one 25bp hike by the committee cannot resolve a shock involving energy up 16% year-on-year and gasoline accounting for one-third of the monthly increase. Core year-on-year inflation has already returned to its post-pandemic low of 2.4%; using a rate hike to fight oil prices offers poor cost-effectiveness.
In July, the committee voted 9-3 to hold rates st

At 2:15 a.m. tomorrow night, the CLARITY Act will face a procedural vote
Bottom line first: CLARITY will most likely fail on the 15th. It is not that no one wants to legislate; the 60-vote threshold, the text, and the calendar are all blocking it at the same time.
The vote on the 15th is only cloture to begin consideration, requiring 60 votes. Republicans hold 53 seats. Paul and Hawley are expected to oppose it, while Tillis previously made ethics a condition. Reliable Republican support may be only around 50, meaning roughly nine Democrats would be needed. At the committee stage, only two mem

September 14 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis
News:
The rate hike is almost fully priced in. August inflation was hotter than expected, and the probability of a 25-basis-point hike on September 16 is around 80%–87%. The decision and dot plot are the direction switches for this week; regulatory tailwinds are temporarily secondary.
Capital flows:
ETFs absorbed around $3–3.5 billion in August, with a single-day inflow of $730 million on September 3; total outflows from September 8–11 were about $460 million, narrowing to -$13.3 million on the 11th. Institutional holdings remain (cumulative tot

This week is a super central-bank week, with three G7 central banks stacked together, along with oil prices and inflation. At 2:00 a.m. on September 17, it’s the Fed, followed by the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. What the market is really trading is not ❌ whether to hike, but whether to hike again after that
The Fed is up at 2:00 a.m. on the 17th, with the current rate at 3.50%–3.75%; the market is pricing in roughly an 85%–90% chance of a 25bp hike. The focus is the dot plot and Waller’s stance
There are four possibilities:
① Base case (roughly 55%–60%)
A 25bp hike to 3.75%–4.00%, fr