Crypto_Xincheng

I think 2026 is a transition window from the late depression phase of the fifth Kondratiev wave (information technology) to the recovery phase of the sixth (AI + energy)
The defining feature is not broad-based prosperity, but repeated bottoming and structural divergence. High interest rates (the 10-year yield at around 5.1%) remain the main constraint.
Asset outlook:
• U.S. tech stocks/Nasdaq: The long-term direction is right, but volatility is likely in the medium term; dollar-cost averaging is preferable to chasing highs
• Bitcoin: The early recovery is continuing, but it looks more like a h

The Nasdaq has started a correction. A weekly bearish divergence is a correction signal, and this correction could be somewhat stronger. It is a multi-timeframe confluence signal, with support at 25,600-24,300-23,800
The question to consider here is: will a U.S. stock market correction spill over to other assets? ❓️
U.S. Treasury yields: The 10-year yield is around 5.09–5.10%, near its highest levels in recent years, putting sustained pressure on high-valuation, long-duration risk assets (tech stocks and crypto)
U.S. Dollar Index: Around 101.8, neutral to firm, with no extreme appreciation
S&P

I think the current crypto market is in the early recovery phase after the cycle low, currently pulling back and waiting for secondary confirmation:
• BTC at around $81,500, down about 35% from its October 2025 ATH of $126,000
• This cycle’s low was around $58,000 in June-July 2026 (a drawdown of about 54%, relatively shallow historically)
• Q3 total market cap rose 39.6% to nearly $3T, with ETFs returning to net inflows
• Fear & Greed Index at around 53 (neutral)
• BTC dominance at around 59-60%
Institutional consensus: the bear market is over, and the market is transitioning from acc

This round, I started telling everyone to build positions in batches at 62K and continued until 86K, when I told everyone to reduce positions in batches. It’s actually been a long time since I last discussed specific market conditions with you. Today, I’d like to talk about how we should view the current market.
I’ll start with the conclusion: this correction isn’t over yet, but it won’t be too deep. Most likely, the price will move around 75K.
First, let’s look at the weekly chart. Every time the MACD fast and slow lines cross above the zero axis on the weekly timeframe, a major rally is abou

October 17 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis
💫News:
CPI impact continues: September CPI rose to 3.7% year over year, with core CPI up 0.3% month over month; a sharp rise in gasoline prices contributed most of the increase
Markets are repricing the probability of a Fed rate hike in October (27–28), and risk appetite is declining
💫Fund Flows:
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw cumulative net outflows of about $535M in October. Recent flows: about +$175.6M on October 13, about -$261.5M on October 14, then a small net inflow of about +$5.1M on October 15. Net outflows totaled about $125–145M over roug

U.S. September CPI will be released tonight at 20:30
Market expectations: headline CPI +0.6% MoM and 3.6% YoY (previously 3.4%), core CPI +0.2% MoM and approximately 2.4%-2.5% YoY. Mainly driven by rising gasoline prices.
My view: Headline CPI will broadly meet expectations, while core CPI is highly likely to come in around 0.2% MoM. The energy shock has been fully priced in, housing continues to cool moderately, and second-round pass-through remains limited.
If core CPI does not exceed expectations, it will reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold steady in October and defer

October 13 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis
💫News:
On Wednesday, October 14, the US September CPI will be released. The market expects headline CPI to potentially rise to around 3.7% year-on-year, while core CPI may remain relatively moderate (around 0.2% month-on-month). The data will directly affect expectations for the Federal Reserve’s subsequent rate hikes and risk appetite.
Related inflation/producer data such as PPI will be released on Thursday
Options expire on Friday (Platforms such as Deribit hold a sizable amount of Bitcoin options open interest)
💫Fund Flows:
US spot Bitcoin ET

October 12 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis
💫 News:
U.S. September CPI on October 14. The market expects headline CPI to potentially rise to around 3.7% year-on-year, while core CPI may remain relatively moderate. The data will directly affect the Fed’s subsequent rate-hike expectations and risk appetite
PPI and other related inflation/production data on Thursday
Options expiry on Friday, which may bring short-term volatility
💫 Fund flows:
The Bitcoin ETF recorded approximately $679M in net outflows last week, ending the inflow momentum from the previous week. The main outflows were conce

$TAO After breaking through the trendline this round, it retested the trendline and then rebounded strongly. The AI sector actually did not rise much in the previous round, so I personally believe it may lead the gains this round
Crypto AI has a chance to take off this round, but it will not see a broad-based surge. More likely, projects with real revenue will rise in a differentiated manner. The AI narrative remains strong, and decentralized computing and inference have genuine demand, but the sector as a whole is constrained by macro conditions, regulation, and competition from centralized A

🇺🇸 Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of approximately $679 million last week (10/5-10/9), reversing the inflow trend from the previous week.
📊 Daily:
• Monday -$89.9 million
• Tuesday +$119 million
• Wednesday -$485 million (largest)
• Thursday -$244 million
• Friday +$21.1 million
📉 Main sources of outflows: Fidelity FBTC (approximately -$380 million) and ARKB (approximately -$207 million). IBIT was essentially flat.
Overall flows have turned negative so far in October. Is institutional demand cooling in the short term?

The U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs saw a net outflow of $160.9 million on October 7, marking several consecutive days of redemptions. Total outflows over the past five trading days reached $506.3 million, the largest five-day outflow since January 23. BlackRock’s ETHA saw a single-day outflow of $116.1 million, accounting for approximately 72% of the day’s total.
Outflows by ETF on October 7:
ETHA −$116.1 million
ETHE −$25.8 million
TETH −$6.3 million
ETHW −$5.9 million
ETHV −$2.8 million
Grayscale Mini ETH and QETH each −$2 million
Fidelity’s FETH recorded zero flows that day. ETF net assets remaine

October 9 $BTC Overall Market Analysis
💫 Market News:
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is around 5.3%, with real interest rates relatively high, unfavorable for assets with no cash flow
Brent crude rose to around $105.60 per barrel, up about 5.4% in a single day, amid tanker attacks and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Inflation expectations have been reignited, and the market has once again priced in the “rate hike” trade
BTC liquidations over the past 24 hours totaled approximately $167 million, with longs accounting for about 94%
💫 Fund Flows:
Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of