Crypto_Xincheng

October 13 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis
💫News:
On Wednesday, October 14, the US September CPI will be released. The market expects headline CPI to potentially rise to around 3.7% year-on-year, while core CPI may remain relatively moderate (around 0.2% month-on-month). The data will directly affect expectations for the Federal Reserve’s subsequent rate hikes and risk appetite.
Related inflation/producer data such as PPI will be released on Thursday
Options expire on Friday (Platforms such as Deribit hold a sizable amount of Bitcoin options open interest)
💫Fund Flows:
US spot Bitcoin ET

October 12 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis
💫 News:
U.S. September CPI on October 14. The market expects headline CPI to potentially rise to around 3.7% year-on-year, while core CPI may remain relatively moderate. The data will directly affect the Fed’s subsequent rate-hike expectations and risk appetite
PPI and other related inflation/production data on Thursday
Options expiry on Friday, which may bring short-term volatility
💫 Fund flows:
The Bitcoin ETF recorded approximately $679M in net outflows last week, ending the inflow momentum from the previous week. The main outflows were conce

$TAO After breaking through the trendline this round, it retested the trendline and then rebounded strongly. The AI sector actually did not rise much in the previous round, so I personally believe it may lead the gains this round
Crypto AI has a chance to take off this round, but it will not see a broad-based surge. More likely, projects with real revenue will rise in a differentiated manner. The AI narrative remains strong, and decentralized computing and inference have genuine demand, but the sector as a whole is constrained by macro conditions, regulation, and competition from centralized A

🇺🇸 Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of approximately $679 million last week (10/5-10/9), reversing the inflow trend from the previous week.
📊 Daily:
• Monday -$89.9 million
• Tuesday +$119 million
• Wednesday -$485 million (largest)
• Thursday -$244 million
• Friday +$21.1 million
📉 Main sources of outflows: Fidelity FBTC (approximately -$380 million) and ARKB (approximately -$207 million). IBIT was essentially flat.
Overall flows have turned negative so far in October. Is institutional demand cooling in the short term?

The U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs saw a net outflow of $160.9 million on October 7, marking several consecutive days of redemptions. Total outflows over the past five trading days reached $506.3 million, the largest five-day outflow since January 23. BlackRock’s ETHA saw a single-day outflow of $116.1 million, accounting for approximately 72% of the day’s total.
Outflows by ETF on October 7:
ETHA −$116.1 million
ETHE −$25.8 million
TETH −$6.3 million
ETHW −$5.9 million
ETHV −$2.8 million
Grayscale Mini ETH and QETH each −$2 million
Fidelity’s FETH recorded zero flows that day. ETF net assets remaine

October 9 $BTC Overall Market Analysis
💫 Market News:
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is around 5.3%, with real interest rates relatively high, unfavorable for assets with no cash flow
Brent crude rose to around $105.60 per barrel, up about 5.4% in a single day, amid tanker attacks and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Inflation expectations have been reignited, and the market has once again priced in the “rate hike” trade
BTC liquidations over the past 24 hours totaled approximately $167 million, with longs accounting for about 94%
💫 Fund Flows:
Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of

October 6 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis
✊Fundamentals:
Friday’s nonfarm payrolls are the main focus. U.S. employment increased by about 29k in September, versus expectations of about 84k–90k; the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%.
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield remains around 5.4%, its highest level since 2004, keeping the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets relatively high.
On October 2, the SEC approved the listing of Volatility Shares’ 3x Bitcoin futures ETP on Cboe BZX.
On October 1, Citi raised its 12-month target from $82k to $113k.
The Fear and Greed Index was

Key Web3 Events This Week (10.5-10.11)
October 5
StablecoinX's ENA holdings will be permanently unlocked on October 5, but selling still requires approval from the Ethena Foundation;
The CFTC plans to seek public comments on AI computing power futures, while CME Group plans to launch two contracts on October 5
October 6
The Ethereum Foundation will activate the Glamsterdam upgrade on the Sepolia testnet on October 6;
Monad hinted that it will launch a privacy service on October 6;
BlackRock plans to implement a 1-for-3 reverse split for its ETH ETF on October 6
The Zcash NU7 mainnet upgrade wi

U.S. September nonfarm payrolls will be released tonight at 20:30. The market expects 84k–90k new jobs, the unemployment rate to hold at 4.1%, and average hourly earnings to rise 0.3% month over month. August’s 162k was nearly three times expectations, so this pullback is a return to normal, not a weakening trend.
My view: Don’t focus on the headline or compare it with August. Layoffs are already near multi-decade lows, while labor supply is being constrained by tighter immigration, so an additional 50k jobs per month is enough to keep the unemployment rate contained. Therefore, 80k–100k jobs

The market has once again fallen into a choppy phase, accompanied by boring price action. In this kind of phase, the easiest ways to lose money are not getting the direction wrong, but overtrading, using excessive leverage, and chasing rallies or selling into drops.
What to do during a range-bound period:
1. Stay alive first: reduce leverage and control position size
High leverage is most likely to get hit from both sides in a range. First reduce your position to a level where you can withstand a 20%–30% drawdown without panicking. People with no positions are much more comfortable than those

September 30 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis
✊ News:
Geopolitics and risk appetite: Trump rejected statements related to an Iran ceasefire, and the market is repricing “energy reflation + Middle East uncertainty.”
A tighter interest-rate path: There was already a rate hike in September, while subsequent PMI data and oil prices pushed up expectations of “another hike/higher for longer.”
Corporate buying continues: Strategy disclosed that it bought another 1,665 BTC last week at an average price of approximately $85,681, totaling about $142.7 million. This directly confirms the $84k–$86k cos