#Gate股票畅聊季 #美股财报季 Lessons from the US Stock Market Plunge: AI Investment Enters the Earnings-Delivery Era
Thursday night’s US stock market must have left everyone stunned. The Nasdaq plunged 5.52%, the Magnificent Seven lost $1.04 trillion in market value in a single day, and the entire market shed $2.9 trillion—equivalent to more than 7 trillion yuan. These aren’t just numbers; real wealth vanished into thin air.
Many people’s first reaction was: Is AI completely finished? Don’t rush to judgment. Recent policy documents, institutional research reports, and industry data all show that the essence of this plunge is not that AI has failed, but that AI’s “wild-growth era” is over.
I. Democrats Take Power, Putting AI in a “Tight Leash”
The direct trigger for this plunge was the Democrats’ sweeping victory in the US midterm elections, giving them control of both houses of Congress and several key states.
Over the past year, the underlying logic of the US stock market’s AI bull run was simple: build data centers at a breakneck pace, pour money into chips, and expand computing power as fast as possible. The AI story was that “if you keep building data centers and piling up GPUs, you’ll make endless money in the future.”
But after the Democrats came to power, the winds shifted completely. The market is now most worried that Democrats will put AI on a tight leash: the federal government may introduce stricter AI regulations, and some lawmakers have even proposed the “Ban Artificial Superintelligence Act.” Violators could face up to 20 years in federal prison, while companies could be forcibly dissolved and have their assets confiscated. Many states may block data center approvals, restrict the construction of large facilities, and regulate power consumption while imposing additional taxes.
Analysts estimate that by 2028, progress on nearly 30% of planned new data centers in the US could be delayed. What capital markets fear most is not losing money, but a change in the rules of the game.
As soon as the news broke, investors scrambled for the exits, and the chip sector was hit by a bloodbath. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 12.25%, Nvidia fell more than 9%, and AMD shed 17%. Memory chip stocks collapsed across the board, with Micron and Western Digital both tumbling more than 17%. Tesla and other Musk-linked stocks also fell more than 9%, because Musk had previously backed the Republicans with substantial funding. Now that the political landscape has shifted, the market is also worried that his companies could face policy uncertainty.
II. The Real Powder Keg: AI Burns Money Too Fast and Makes It Too Slowly
Regulation was just the trigger; the real powder keg had been planted long ago. Over the past year, Wall Street hyped AI to the skies, and every company rushed to spend money building data centers and buying graphics cards, but the pace of spending far outstripped the pace of making money.
The giants have been burning through cash, and the market is gradually asking one fundamental question: When exactly will they earn back the hundreds of billions they’ve poured in?
Previously, everyone just dreamed about how powerful AI would be in the future. Now they’re calculating the bills: data centers require land and electricity, as well as insanely expensive chips, with massive capital spending year after year. If returns don’t keep up, valuations will have to be discounted.
Institutions put it bluntly: AI changing the world is undeniable, but that doesn’t mean all AI stocks are reasonably priced today. A major industry shakeout is inevitable.
Adding insult to injury, the Federal Reserve is piling on. Fed officials have made hawkish remarks, suggesting that further rate hikes have not been ruled out. With interest rates remaining high, borrowing to build data centers costs more, further dampening tech companies’ appetite to expand. The market is now focused on the upcoming nonfarm payrolls data, which will directly determine whether the Fed raises rates again.
III. The Most Surreal Scene: Chinese Stocks Rise Against the Tide!
While US stocks were in widespread distress, Chinese stocks listed in the US held up instead. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 0.43% against the tide, NetEase gained more than 4%, and JD.com, Alibaba, Pinduoduo, and Bilibili all closed higher. With the broader market falling this hard, Chinese stocks still managed to chart their own course.
Why this contrast?
First, US AI stocks have seen their valuations soar over the past year, leaving them under enormous pressure to correct. By contrast, Chinese internet stocks have already gone through several rounds of adjustments, and their valuations are relatively low. Some safe-haven funds have shifted from highly inflated US tech stocks to Chinese assets with more attractive valuations.
Second, domestic internet companies have already completed their cost-cutting and efficiency improvements. They are no longer burning money indiscriminately, and their profits are genuinely improving, making them more predictable. When things are stormy elsewhere, investors tend to favor assets with steadier earnings. Of course, this does not mean the market thinks AI is completely finished. Some institutions warn that this is panic selling, and the market has not yet reached the point of total despair and capitulation. Google has also announced a $17 billion investment in a new large data center in Wyoming, while Apple, after more than a year, is also set to issue $7 billion in bonds to fund share buybacks and business operations.
Tech giants have not stopped investing outright; it’s just that the good old days when you could make money by blindly charging into AI are probably over.
IV. Three Tips for Everyday Investors
Don’t panic-sell or blindly buy the dip just because you see a plunge.
First, AI’s overall direction has not changed, but the era of unchecked expansion is over.
Going forward, distinguish between companies that can genuinely deliver profits and those relying purely on storytelling to inflate valuations. The latter will be hit hard.
Second, policy risk has become the biggest variable for US AI stocks. Every move by US regulators will roil global tech markets.
Third, this rally in Chinese stocks against the tide does not mean a major bull market is about to begin. It mostly reflects their relative resilience, so stay rational and don’t blindly chase prices higher.
Markets never rise forever. Only when the tide of exuberance goes out can you see who’s swimming naked.
Is this round of AI adjustment a short-term correction or a complete shutdown? Has spring really arrived for Chinese stocks? Share your thoughts in the comments.
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