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Diamond Hands
Active for: 4.3y
阿泽 Chase not the waves — learn the tide. Instead of chasing the waves, seek to understand the tide.
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$CL ‌$BZ ‌
Oil's Fractured Compass: Geopolitical Hope Meets an Inflationary Reality
There is a particular kind of tension that grips the oil market when two forces of equal magnitude pull in opposite directions. That tension is visible in every tick of the tape this week, as Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate oscillate between the prospect of a diplomatic breakthrough and the stubborn reality of a world that remains short of energy. The market is not confused. It is weighing, in real time, two competing narratives that cannot both be true.
The Diplomatic Bid and the Supply Reality
The i
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CL+0.69%
BZ+0.04%
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$USDJPY The Yen's Uncomfortable Ascent: BOJ Tightening Meets a Fragile Global Carry Trade
There is a particular kind of contradiction that emerges when a central bank raises interest rates and its currency falls anyway. Japan delivered that contradiction on September 18, when the Bank of Japan lifted its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, the highest level since 1995, only to watch the yen weaken past 158 per dollar in the sessions that followed. The decision was fully priced in. The reaction was not.
The BOJ's vote was 7 to 2, with the two dissenters newly appointed by Prime Minister S
USDJPY-0.96%
EURJPY-0.85%
GBPJPY-0.76%
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#CryptoStocksSlipBMNRDownOver4%
Sharp Sell-off in Crypto Stocks: Why Did BMNR and the Sector Lose Value?
Crypto-related stocks faced a sharp sell-off during the final trading session of the week. Shares of BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) fell by over 4%, while MicroStrategy (MSTR) dropped more than 6%. Circle (CRCL) declined by over 3%, and MARA Holdings (MARA) also joined the downward trend. This wave of selling was driven not only by dynamics specific to the crypto market but also by a repricing based on macroeconomic data.
Macroeconomic Pressure: Bond Yields and PMI Data
A key driver
BMNR-1.64%
MSTR-1.81%
CRCL-4.23%
MARA-2.82%
BTC+0.34%
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The Inflation Signal 🧐
What America's Five-Year PMI High Really Tells Us 👀
There is a particular kind of economic data point that cuts through the noise and forces a reassessment of the prevailing narrative. That is what happened on Wednesday when S&P Global released its preliminary September composite Purchasing Managers' Index for the United States. The reading came in at 58.4, up from 56.0 in August and well above the consensus estimate of 55.3. It was the highest level since July 2021, marking 62 months of private-sector expansion and the fourth consecutive month of accelerating growth.
US500+0.61%
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