Jamesvanst

DRAM Memory and VanEck Semi Conductor ETF are both down today.
Everything is cyclical.

On top of multi decade highs in yields.
Oil and Japanese yen are now rallying.
All headwinds.
And Bitcoin continues to shrug it all off.

Since ChatGPT launched on November 30, 2022, almost the bottom of the last bear market.
Gold is up 149%.
Nasdaq 100 is up 129%.
Gold outperformed tech during the greatest tech revolution ever.

In previous bitcoin bear markets the overwhelming narrative from the bears has always been bitcoin is going to 0 or negative.
This is the first bear market where bears were giving it an actual nominal value, bitcoin is going to $40k maybe $30k instead of 0.

If you are under 30 and you are trying to copy the success of your parents ie via real estate and a 40% weighting of bonds in your portfolio you are not going to make it.

Yields will continue to rise until spending is cut.
Spending will never be cut so yields will continue to rise.

US 10-year at 4.8%
Another 8 days until the Treasury can buy back at least $4 billion per operation of long-dated bonds.
It's not going to touch the sides.

European yields breaking out to new highs 🔥

Bitcoin holding onto weekend gains as futures open, with oil up

Bitcoin pumped 30% in a week.
It then held around $80,000 for a week.
Open Interest dropped 10%.
Then the market priced in two rate hikes by December.
and so far gave back just 5%.

There is nothing for Warsh to say because Bessent has already intervened with bond buybacks, doubled buybacks and signalled to use the TGA to fund them.
and they will run it hot going into the mid-terms.