Jamesvanst

For quite sometime I thought about writing a Substack to portray my thoughts and feelings in long-form of someone in the upper bound of generation z and being in financial markets for almost ten years.
The idea is to help the younger generation, who weren’t handed the old map understand what markets are actually doing.
Nothing I write is financial advice.

Very happy to see bitcoin trade more like gold than nasdaq after the jobs report.

After this bull run, you are probably not going to see $100,000 again.
Just like you never saw $10,000 in 2022

For pretty much most of my life in London was how much can I make on flipping property by putting a new toilet in.
The conversation now is il take getting my money back.
The conversation in the future will be, hopefully il only be losing 20%.

Asia wakes up and blasts bitcoin straight through the $82k sell wall

DRAM Memory and VanEck Semi Conductor ETF are both down today.
Everything is cyclical.

On top of multi decade highs in yields.
Oil and Japanese yen are now rallying.
All headwinds.
And Bitcoin continues to shrug it all off.

Since ChatGPT launched on November 30, 2022, almost the bottom of the last bear market.
Gold is up 149%.
Nasdaq 100 is up 129%.
Gold outperformed tech during the greatest tech revolution ever.

In previous bitcoin bear markets the overwhelming narrative from the bears has always been bitcoin is going to 0 or negative.
This is the first bear market where bears were giving it an actual nominal value, bitcoin is going to $40k maybe $30k instead of 0.

If you are under 30 and you are trying to copy the success of your parents ie via real estate and a 40% weighting of bonds in your portfolio you are not going to make it.

Yields will continue to rise until spending is cut.
Spending will never be cut so yields will continue to rise.

US 10-year at 4.8%
Another 8 days until the Treasury can buy back at least $4 billion per operation of long-dated bonds.
It's not going to touch the sides.

European yields breaking out to new highs 🔥