Jamesvanst

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield’s 12.4 basis-point surge ranks among the largest 2% of daily increases since 2000.
@LukeGromen

In April 2004 $TLT made a new all-time low of $80.51.
22.5 years later, TLT is at $80.87.
It currently has an AUM of $47B of dead money.

The market is pricing in three rate hikes
Oil is over $100
US10Y approaching 5%
BTC is just 7% down from its September high
Lows are still in.

Western government have completely lost the long-end of the curve.
Bond Buybacks, drain the TGA, QE its all inevitable.

The timeline is bullish but there’s a huge wave of disbelief.
The similarities to Q1 2023 is uncanny

Wen blink for policymakers

Tokenisation allows the casino to get bigger, more liquid, less fees, more transparency, global retail access, and fewer intermediaries.
Everything is geared to propping up the stock market and tokenisation does just that.

Grok Bot is out of this world
Multiple AI agents running around simultaneously
This is the start of an exponential shift
Reminds me of bitcoin ten years ago

Grok Bot is out of this world
Multiple AI agents running around simultaneously
This is the start of an exponential shift

What was wild about Bessent intervening was:
No major volatility issues
No major liquidity issues
the yield curve isn’t even that steep
Equities a few % of all-time high
Q3 estimated Real GDP is 4.7%

More spending is always the answer..

If you take the bottom of the SPX in 2009 and the all-time high in 2026.
SPX is up just 1,000%, through the greatest monetary printing regime of all-time.

The higher gold goes the more it undermines US debt.
You wonder what the price of gold would be without bitcoin

September for Bitcoin has been positive since 2023. That’s three consecutive monthly gains.
But you average and extrapolate from 2013, to fit a narrative and bias.

The West isn’t going to reduce taxes or spending, but there’s another way to get a bid in bonds: let the housing market deflate.
China’s bond yields have fallen in lockstep with the collapse of housing.

I would have expected market makers on low volume to try and take Bitcoin lower on the 4,000 BTC hack.

The more bugs AI finds from human code the greater the likelihood we are in the singularity (artificial intelligence surpasses human intelligence).

The ramifications of the Russian Swift Ban in 2022 only accelerate from here.
Sanctions accelerate, US treasuries lose global reserve marketshare