Jamesvanst

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Bitcoin is losing its 1:1 correlation with IGV, it usually snaps back at some point.
IGV is about to fill in the end of January gap, which occurred during the SaaS apocalypse (which was over played as usual).
8 consecutive outflows from US BTC ETF (joint most), these cluster of outflows usually mark a local bottom.
BTC-1.96%
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This will be the first weekend that bitcoin CME futures and options trade over the weekend.
I still expect Friday close and Sunday open to dominate as it will take a while for volumes to match.
But bitcoin closed Friday's gap and has three open, one below and two above.
BTC-1.98%
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If you look at Bitcoin in market cap terms rather than price, most of the major milestones, $500B, $750B, $1T, $1.2T, have been tested on major capitulation candles.
The February low was no different. Bitcoin found support right at the $1.2T market cap level.
Bitcoin has proven its at least a $1T asset, which was tested during the Yen carry trade.
BTC-1.96%
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Bitcoin is fighting to stay above the 50-day SMA at $76,778.
The golden cross for bitcoin is when the 50DMA gets above the 200DMA, roughly $3,000 away.
Good things tend to happen when this occurs.
Seems everyone is capitulating at the bottom, makes sense.
BTC-1.96%
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If STRC is the core vehicle for acquiring Bitcoin for Strategy, making it the most senior security would lower financing risk and borrowing costs.
It would also see more demand come in as it’s higher up the stack.
BTC-1.96%
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Seeing people give up all over this timeline.
Third bear market and nothing changes with human greed and fear.
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After a 2.5 Year consolidation (since the BTC ETF launch).
Long-Term Holder supply has finally broken out and about to make new all-time highs - 16.3M BTC.
This cohort controls the market and this is why the four year cycle is over.
BTC-1.96%
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Excluding Strategy’s two 50,000+ BTC purchases in November 2024.
Four of the company’s six largest bitcoin buys have taken place in 2026 in a bear market.
BTC-1.96%
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This is wild.
There’s now a serious proposal for the Bank Of England to issue EUR-denominated bonds to lower borrowing costs.
But once a country starts borrowing in foreign currency, it becomes dependent on external confidence instead of its own central bank.
No currency sovereignty. No real lender of last resort.
This is what blew up the Pound in 1992.
The case for bitcoin, could not be clearer.
BTC-1.96%
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AI stocks is what crypto was in 2017
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The current bitcoin price is sitting in possibly the biggest supply cluster.
(15% of the bitcoin supply): $83,000 - $85,000
ETF Cost Basis: $82,000
200DMA: $81,000
STH Cost Basis: $78,200
TMM: $78,100
Current BTC Price: $77,400
MSTR Cost Basis: $75,700
128DMA: $75,000
BTC-1.96%
MSTR-1.72%
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The closest comparable time period for bitcoin’s current price action is March/April 2019.
BTC-1.96%
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Q2 2026 is already the fourth-largest quarter for Bitcoin accumulation by MSTR at 81,639 BTC.
The company needs only 8,000 BTC to reach its second-best quarter, and the quarter is only halfway through.
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Strategy timed the market exceptionally well, to issue $3B of 0% convertible debt, while the stock traded above $433 for a matter of days.
Now the company is retiring the debt below par, reducing almost 20% of its debt and future dilution risk.
The company benefited from both directions of the move
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Almost 15% of the Bitcoin supply is now sitting just above the 200DMA at around $83k–$85k.
I believe that if $85k gets breached, the gap to $95k will happen quickly.
TMM and STH cost basis remains a key support around $78k.
BTC-1.96%
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I’m really looking forward to the next round of stimulus cheques.
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I’m really looking forward to the next round of stimulus checks.
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Trump has this much room to TACO
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The second highest volume day for $STRC.

Just under $1.5 billion of trade volume.
$97 million shy of the top trading day.
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Bitcoin Funding rates have flipped positive.
Coinbase premium is up 150% over the past 24 hours and trying to go positive.
Need both to flip the 200DMA
BTC-1.96%
COINON3.06%
UP12.85%
FLIP0.32%
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