Bitcoin has been down in October for 2014, 2018, and 2025 so far.
Both previous years were bear markets.
Both previous years were bear markets.
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Jamesvanst
For the four-year cycle theorists:
BTC outperformance versus the Mag 7 often signals a cycle top.
Bitcoin needs another 100% gain against the Mag 7 to match 2021 highs. Still below the 2017 high.
Slow, steady rise since the 2023 bull run began.
Good thing, Mag 7 has more room to run as well with the AI capex boom.
BTC outperformance versus the Mag 7 often signals a cycle top.
Bitcoin needs another 100% gain against the Mag 7 to match 2021 highs. Still below the 2017 high.
Slow, steady rise since the 2023 bull run began.
Good thing, Mag 7 has more room to run as well with the AI capex boom.
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I personally cannot wait for QE5.
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More tailwinds than headwinds.
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Since this cycle began in 2023, 142 weeks ago, only 7 weeks have been worse than the last two.
Previous corrections were typically short in duration and sharp.
You could argue the tariffs back in April but it was an obvious capitulation, similar to the yen carry trade.
The pain this time around has been more time based than price based.
Previous corrections were typically short in duration and sharp.
You could argue the tariffs back in April but it was an obvious capitulation, similar to the yen carry trade.
The pain this time around has been more time based than price based.
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This will be the definition of "climbing the wall of worry".
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It seems like Bitcoin futures is about to start the week with a gap.
Could this be the one that gets left behind…..
Could this be the one that gets left behind…..
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Gold is now back to the 2011 high against the M2 money supply.
14 years of no real growth.
Congrats gold bugs.
14 years of no real growth.
Congrats gold bugs.
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Tenth biggest daily US ETF outflow on Thursday since launch - $530M.
All in All, less than $1B of outflows this week, minimal, considering the sentiment and leverage wiped out.
Net outflows of this magnitude tend to correspond with local lows.
All in All, less than $1B of outflows this week, minimal, considering the sentiment and leverage wiped out.
Net outflows of this magnitude tend to correspond with local lows.
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The government shutdown uncertainty will be over soon.
U.S./China tariff drama coming to an end conclusion.
Fed are going to cut rates at the end of October.
I see Bitcoin back above $110k to $115k, in next few weeks.
Shopping continues.
U.S./China tariff drama coming to an end conclusion.
Fed are going to cut rates at the end of October.
I see Bitcoin back above $110k to $115k, in next few weeks.
Shopping continues.
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A standard 20% correction is $100,000
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. @andrewrsorkin didn’t own any Bitcoin because he was scared of what people would think of him or what he would read in the newspaper.
Peak Sheep mentality
Peak Sheep mentality
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If I asked you where Bitcoin would be if I said gold was up 60% YTD, approaching $5k.
Coinciding with the greatest boom and funding for the stock market in decades with AI, possibly ever.
While just last week seeing the greatest deleveraging in Bitcoin's history.
And it's 12% below its all-time high. Sounds good.
Coinciding with the greatest boom and funding for the stock market in decades with AI, possibly ever.
While just last week seeing the greatest deleveraging in Bitcoin's history.
And it's 12% below its all-time high. Sounds good.
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Friday was the greatest deleveraging in bitcoin's history.
All the OI de-leveraging came from crypto exchanges not CME (trad-fi).
Suits are coming in and taking over.
All the OI de-leveraging came from crypto exchanges not CME (trad-fi).
Suits are coming in and taking over.
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The panic for the "debasement trade" hasn't even started.
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Another extremely constructive day as Bitcoin continues to bottom out.
Larry Fink continues to promote IBIT, the quickest ETF to reach $100B.
Powell is telling us what we already know that QT is going to slow.
The $110,000 futures gap closed, or the majority of it, which should be enough.
PTJ believes fed funds will be considerably lower this time next year. Which I think is Bitcoin biggest catalyst.
The U.S government continues to quietly build up its reserves in a delta neutral way - 327,000 BTC.
Considering the events of Friday, bitcoin has held up incredibly well.
Bitcoin still bottom
Larry Fink continues to promote IBIT, the quickest ETF to reach $100B.
Powell is telling us what we already know that QT is going to slow.
The $110,000 futures gap closed, or the majority of it, which should be enough.
PTJ believes fed funds will be considerably lower this time next year. Which I think is Bitcoin biggest catalyst.
The U.S government continues to quietly build up its reserves in a delta neutral way - 327,000 BTC.
Considering the events of Friday, bitcoin has held up incredibly well.
Bitcoin still bottom
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We have a bitcoin futures gap at $110,000.
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“The markets teach you, you always have to relook at your assumptions”
Larry Fink on Bitcoin
Larry Fink on Bitcoin
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117k to close the gap
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