Sonnenie

Playbook for the next 8 months
Rate hikes
Bond yields up
Risk liquidity down
AI / tech trade unwind
Stock market correction
Bearish midterms
Crypto bottom
Green 2027
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The Leopold Aschenbrenner story is wild
> Launch Situational Awareness LP with $225M
> Bet heavy on AI infrastructure
> Fund hits $45B in two years
> Ken Griffin in Citadel calls for a surprise rate hike he knew wasn't coming
> Market panics, AI trade collapses
> Leopold is 4X leveraged
> Gets margin called
> Forced to liquidate his entire book in one massive block and sell to a single buyer at cents on the dollar
That single buyer? Citadel
Absolutely ruthless
The perfect crime

FOMC Summary 🏦
- Rates unchanged
- 5th straight meeting with no hikes / cuts
- Longest pause since the 2008 cycle
- 3 out of 12 officials dissented in favour of a hike
- Fed reaffirms commitment to 2% inflation goal
Warsh presser will be key, let's see what he says

Hot take
The whole idea of "edge" is overrated
Beginners like to mythify it because it makes them feel better about being unprofitable
But if you can recognise basic patterns, follow simple rules, and manage your risk, you are already doing enough to make money in this market

Trump made more in the first 2 years of his 2nd term than in the previous 60 years of his life
Over $1.4B from crypto alone
$TRUMP coin is -98%
GOP will prob lose midterms
Public opinion of crypto is at an ATL
No chance Clarity Act passes, what am I missing here