Sand谋3S

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$BTC ‌#GateSquareMayTradingShare
🔥 Despite war fears, Bitcoin tests $80,000: Is the 3-month resistance breaking?
✨ In the first week of May, Bitcoin tested $80,000 for the first time since January, in a move that kept investors glued to their screens. This period, marked by rising geopolitical tensions from the Middle East, historic ETF inflows, and a massive short squeeze, signals a turning point for BTC.
🔹 Rally in the shadow of geopolitical tension
✨ While BTC was reaching $80,000, news broke that a missile, believed to be Iranian, had struck a US patrol boat near Jask Island. Although BTC retreated to around $79,000, it managed to hold just below the critical threshold.
✨ Brent oil's jump of over 5% and the fragility of risk appetite are emerging as the biggest obstacles to the rally.
🔹 $150 Million in 60 Minutes: Details of the Short Squeeze
✨ On the morning of May 4th, BTC triggered the sharpest short squeeze in recent months, surpassing $80,000 in just 60 minutes. According to Coinglass data, $150 million worth of short positions were liquidated in just one hour. ✨ This figure reached $195 million in a four-hour window, and a total of $370 million in 24 hours. ✨ Futures data showed that 62.8% of open positions were short before the squeeze. This asymmetrical picture created a classic short squeeze dynamic, with liquidations triggering chain buying that pushed the price upwards.
🔹 Supply Shock: Institutional Demand Exceeds 500% of Daily Supply
✨ Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, emphasized in his recent assessment that institutions absorbed more than 500% of the daily BTC mining supply. With the April 2024 halving, daily new BTC production dropped to around 450 units, while ETFs and institutional buyers are acquiring over 2,250 BTC per day. ✨ Edwards points out that historically, when this level is reached, BTC gains an average of 24% in the following month. At current pricing, this corresponds to a target of approximately $96,000.
🔹 ETF Front: Strong Start to May After April Record
✨ US spot Bitcoin ETFs got off to a strong start in May with net inflows exceeding $625 million on May 1st. BlackRock IBIT pulled in $284 million, Fidelity FBTC $213 million, making April the strongest ETF month of 2026 with total inflows of $2.44 billion. ✨ Total net inflows since launch have reached $58.5 billion, while assets under management have exceeded $102 billion. The requirement for ETF issuers to hold physical BTC in custodians creates a cycle where each net inflow permanently reduces the circulating liquid supply.
🔹 Sentiment indicators: What does the Fear Index say?
✨ Despite all this volatility, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is hovering in the 40-44 range, meaning between “fear” and “neutral.”
✨ Historically, periods when the index is far from the greed zone are considered strong accumulation opportunities. In this conjuncture where BTC has broken a key supply level, the fact that the indicator remains low may indicate the early stages of the rally.
🔹 Technical outlook: Struggle to turn resistance into support
✨ After breaking out of a descending channel that has lasted for months, BTC is now trying to turn $80,000 into support. This coincides with the lower boundary of a strong resistance zone that extends to the $75,000-$85,700 range on the weekly chart. ✨ In the event of a high-volume breakout, the next targets are the $84,000-$85,500 range; a break above these levels could trigger a potential short squeeze wave, pushing the move up to $97,800.
💫 “Bull markets rise by climbing over walls of fear. The greatest opportunities are for those who can maintain their courage even amidst bloodshed.”

The company reported a net loss of $12.54 billion in the first quarter of 2026. This marks the heaviest quarterly blow ever recorded for Strategy under Michael Saylor's leadership. Moreover, this figure far exceeds Wall Street's already pessimistic expectation of a loss of $18.98 per share. For comparison, the company reported a loss of $16.38 per share in the same quarter last year; meaning the loss has deepened and grown year-on-year.
The reason behind this massive loss is quite clear: the sharp drop in Bitcoin's price. Bitcoin, which was around $87,000 on the first day of the year, fell to $68,000 by March 31st. Given Strategy's massive position of 818,334 Bitcoin, this price movement was inevitably reflected in the balance sheet. The company recorded an unrealized loss of $14.46 billion in its digital assets this quarter alone.
Portfolio Size and the Cost of the Strategy
At this point, it's necessary to understand the magnitude of Strategy's position. In the first quarter, the company purchased a full 89,000 Bitcoin, bringing its total holdings to 818,334 Bitcoin. This represents approximately 3.9% of the total Bitcoin supply. The average purchase cost was $75,537. This is significantly lower than Bitcoin's closing price of $68,000 on March 31st. This situation, according to mark-to-market accounting, is reflected as a heavy burden on the balance sheet. The company's total debt stands at $8.2 billion, of which $2.3 billion consists of convertible bonds; the average conversion price of these bonds is $160 per share.
Cash Position and Dividend Shield
Perhaps the most critical question of the balance sheet is: Does Strategy have the cash strength to weather this storm? The company closed the quarter with $2.25 billion in cash reserves. This amount provides approximately 30 months of payment assurance, considering the annual dividend obligation of around $1.2 billion due for preferred shares. The monthly dividend rate for Stretch preferred shares is fixed at 11.5%. This structure forms the backbone of the strategy that Saylor describes as a "yield model backed by Bitcoin reserves."
However, this reserve is financed without selling Bitcoin, and the company's plan to increase the dividend rate from 9% in July 2025 to 11.5%, marking seven consecutive monthly increases, is also an indication of the aggressive commitments made to investors.
Market Expectations and Share Performance
The market appears to have largely priced in this loss. Bitcoin's recovery above $80,000 in the second quarter and Strategy's continued purchases have given investors some breathing room. MSTR shares are up approximately 17% year-to-date. In fact, the stock has seen a rally exceeding 33% in the last month. The current price is around $171. The average target price from analysts is $372, indicating a potential upside of approximately 118%. However, on an annual basis, the stock has still lost more than 54% of its value, and the 52-week range between $149 and $457 clearly demonstrates the high level of volatility. In terms of revenue, the company is estimated to have generated approximately $120 million.
Saylor's Break: Signal or Tactic?
Perhaps the most striking detail was Saylor's announcement that he was pausing his weekly Bitcoin purchases before the earnings report. He announced this decision with a single sentence: "No buying this week." As a reminder, Strategy had been regularly buying Bitcoin every week since the second half of 2025. To finance these purchases, the company had issued $2.176 billion worth of STRC and $366 million worth of MSTR shares to fund the purchase of $2.54 billion worth of Bitcoin. This sudden pause is being interpreted by the market in two ways: either a legal pre-earnings silence period or a sign that the company is seeking a new financing model under current balance sheet pressure.
What Should We Watch Next?
Now all eyes are on tonight's investor conference. Saylor is expected to explain how the company will shape its future strategy following this quarterly loss. The answers to three questions in particular will be critical: Will the Bitcoin buying strategy continue with the same aggressiveness? Is there a new roadmap regarding the sustainability of preferred stock dividends? And most importantly, what will be the impact of Bitcoin's recovery on the second-quarter earnings report?
Strategy's story cannot be read independently from Bitcoin's story. Although the quarterly loss is heavy, the fact that this loss has not been realized and the company still has a strong cash buffer shows that the picture is not entirely bleak. However, it must be acknowledged that for a company holding 818,000 Bitcoins, every bull run that comes every four years, as well as every sharp correction, determines the fate of the balance sheet.
The ship carrying a giant wave is the one that is rocked the most in the storm; and when it reaches port, it is the one that unloads the most cargo.
⚠️Don't Forget to mark Stoploss and manage risk properly.
👉NFA
👉DIOR
$BTC ‌
#GateSquareMayTradingShare

$DOGE On-chain whale flow:
🕵️Wallets holding over 100 million DOGE have reached a record high with a total of 108.52 billion DOGE, representing approximately 11% of circulating supply. There has been an accumulation of 160 million DOGE in the last 96 hours, and a 6-month high of 739 transfers over $100,000 was seen on April 28th.
#GateSquareMayTradingShare

The Russia-Ukraine war, which erupted in February 2022, has been a turning point that profoundly affected global energy markets, commodity prices, and investor psychology. Four years later, in March 2026, this ongoing conflict continues to shape direct oil supply and indirectly safe-haven assets. The most noticeable impact of the war was seen in energy markets. Russia's role as a producer supplying approximately 10% of the world's oil, combined with Western sanctions, caused Brent oil prices to skyrocket to levels around $130 in the initial years. The shockwave at that time fueled global inflation and put energy-importing countries (including Turkey) under serious current account deficit pressure. While the picture has changed somewhat by 2026, the shadow of the war still hangs over us. Recently, with new flare-ups in the Middle East (particularly the US-Israel-Iran tension), oil prices have jumped again. Brent crude has seen a rapid rise in recent days from $73 to the $77-78 range – with some sources reporting jumps of up to 13% at the open, marking one of the sharpest daily increases since the 2022 Russian invasion. Much of this rise stems from the near-halt of tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and fears of supply disruptions. However, while the Russia-Ukraine front hasn't directly closed, the overall geopolitical risk premium created by the war remains a persistent upward pressure on oil prices. On the gold side, the story is clearer and more consistent: Since the war began, gold has become the strongest "safe haven" amidst central bank reserve diversification efforts, sanctions evasion attempts, and global uncertainty. Between 2022 and 2025, central banks doubled their gold purchases; Russia's frozen reserves further accelerated this trend. In March 2026, an ounce of gold is trading in the $5,300-$5,400 range – some predictions are talking about $6,000 by the end of the year, or even $10,000 in the long term. In Türkiye, the price of gold per gram is climbing from around 7,500-7,800 TL. The fear of inflation created by the war, the volatility of the dollar, and risk aversion in equity markets are among the factors constantly fueling the rise of gold. So, how "active" is the impact of this war today?
Oil: Although the direct supply disruption from Russia has decreased (Russian oil is shifting to Asia at a discounted price), the global energy security concerns created by the war are still reflected in prices. Combined with new tensions in the Middle East, Brent is challenging $80. Every $10 increase means fuel price increases, inflation, and current account deficit pressure in net importing countries like Turkey.
Gold: The "de-dollarization" and reserve diversification trend triggered by the war continues. The higher the geopolitical risk, the more gold shines. Current levels ($5,300+) represent a return of around 180-200% from the $1,800-$1,900 levels at the beginning of 2022. General Markets: Risk aversion in equities, a strengthening (but sometimes reversing) dollar, safe-haven demand in bonds... All of this has its roots in that morning in February 2022. In short, the Russia-Ukraine war is no longer just a regional conflict; it has become the name of an era in which global energy security, inflation, and the perception of "safe assets" are being redefined. Hopes for peace (or ceasefire negotiations) can pull prices down in the short term, but the risk premium is not eliminated from the markets unless a ceasefire is achieved.
#PreciousMetalsAndOilPricesSurge

Tensions reach a peak in the Middle East: Critical developments are unfolding as joint US-Israeli operations against Iran continue. Here are the latest news points:
Israel eliminates two top Iranian intelligence officials — The Israeli military announced it killed Sayed Yahya Hamidi (deputy head of Israeli affairs) and Jalal Pour Hossein (head of the espionage department) of the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence in precision strikes in Tehran. This dealt a heavy blow to the regime's intelligence structure.
US soldiers killed in Iran operation — US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed a total of 6 American soldiers were killed in Iranian retaliatory strikes as part of "Operation Epic Fury." The casualties occurred in Iran's initial counterattacks, reportedly targeting bases in Kuwait.
Explosions east of Tehran — Violent explosions were reported in eastern and central Tehran following a new wave of Israeli airstrikes. Israel stated it aims to largely destroy the regime's ballistic missile capabilities within 24 hours. US officials stated that Iran has suffered "very significant damage" and that "the next phase will be much harsher." Israel strikes Iranian soldiers while they are activating missile defense systems — The Israeli military announced that it eliminated Iranian soldiers while they were trying to activate missile defense systems. Evacuation warnings were issued for some towns in Lebanon, signaling an impending attack. Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz — The Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced that it has officially closed the Strait of Hormuz, which carries 20% of the world's oil supply. They threatened to set fire to any ship attempting to pass through the strait. This decision is creating expectations of a significant rise in global oil prices. Major volatility in crypto and financial markets — With the tension in Iran, crypto outflows from Nobitex (Iran's largest crypto exchange) increased by 700%, reaching almost $3 million. Gold fell 1.78%, losing $650 billion in value, while silver dropped 6.82%, losing $340 billion. In contrast, the Nasdaq rose 1.73%, gaining $610 billion, the S&P 500 gained 1.08%, adding $80 billion, and the Russell 2000 increased by 1.72%, adding $53 billion. Bitcoin also surged 6.7%, surpassing the $70,000 level and adding approximately $80 billion. In the last two hours, $1 trillion has been wiped from gold/silver, while nearly $800 billion has flowed into cryptocurrency and US stock markets. These developments indicate that the US-Israel-Iran conflict is rapidly escalating and directly impacting the global economy and energy markets.

✨Bitcoin isn't a classic "safe haven" (like gold); it oscillates between risk-on and risk-off. However, its 24/7 accessibility, censorship resistance, and ease of transport make it a unique player in geopolitical shocks — especially in high-inflation regions like Iran. If the conflict drags on, inflation expectations could support BTC in the long term, but volatility will remain high in the short term. Markets are watching Trump's statement that "major operations will continue" and potential de-escalation signals. These developments test Bitcoin's claim to be "digital gold," while also demonstrating the adaptability of crypto in global uncertainty.
✨ Following the US-Israeli airstrikes against Iran (including the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei), demand and use of cryptocurrencies exploded in the country. This is directly related to the collapse of the traditional financial system due to sanctions, hyperinflation, and the risk of war. Here are the latest details based on Elliptic and other sources. Outgoings on Nobitex Increase by 700% — On Iran’s largest crypto exchange, Nobitex, outgoing trading volumes jumped by 700% minutes after the first US-Israeli attacks. At its peak, hourly outflows reached approximately $3 million USD. This was confirmed in a March 2, 2026 report by blockchain analytics firm Elliptic — funds are being moved to offshore exchanges, exhibiting classic "capital flight" behavior. Why such intense demand?
Iranians are rapidly converting rials into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies and transferring them to offshore wallets due to the collapse of the rial and the paralysis of the banking system. Traditional banking is closed to international transfers due to sanctions; crypto provides a censorship-resistant and 24/7 accessible "escape route". Although internet outages and exchange restrictions increased with the start of the war (Nobitex halted outflows on some networks), demand hyper-accelerated — users are trying to move their assets away from regime control. Nobitex's scale —
It has over 11 million users.
It handled a total crypto trading volume of 7.2 billion USD in 2025 (Elliptic data).
This is a cornerstone of Iran's digital economy infrastructure — known for its IRGC (Revolutionary Guard) connections and the Central Bank's use of stablecoins. General Iranian crypto demand trend —
Even before the attack, Bitcoin demand was high in Iran (seen as "digital gold" due to hyperinflation and sanctions).
The increase in local demand after the conflict is strengthening buying and holding behavior within Iran despite the short-term decline in the global BTC price (rebound after the initial sell-off).
Some analysts note that these outflows are creating "real safe haven" demand for Bitcoin — especially in high-risk regions like Iran.
Risks and additional observations —
Transactions slowed down due to liquidity problems on exchanges and internet blackouts (some pairs were suspended).
Even meme coins like DOGE are gaining prominence on the platform, but the main outflows are in BTC and stablecoins.
In the long term, this event makes Iran's crypto ecosystem (including mining) even more critical; however, infrastructure damage and new sanctions could suppress demand. In short — Bitcoin demand in Iran is currently in "panic mode": The risk of regime collapse and economic chaos is making crypto the only real way out. Nobitex data shows that millions of Iranians mobilized to protect their assets in the first hours of the war. This once again proves the role of crypto in geopolitical crises.
#Bitcoin’sSafeHavenAppeal