# JuneCPI

One inflation report may move the market for a day.
The Federal Reserve's response can shape the market for months.
June's CPI delivered welcome news as inflation slowed compared to the previous month, and monthly prices even recorded their first decline in years. On the surface, that looks like a victory against inflation.
But the bigger picture is far more complicated.
The Fed isn't celebrating yet.
Why?
Because policymakers know that one encouraging report doesn't establish a trend. Their focus remains on persistent inflation, especially core inflation, which continues to stay above the lon

#JuneCPIFedHike20%:
June CPI Cools but Fed Hike Odds Still 51.9%
June CPI: +3.5% YoY, down from 4.2% in May. Monthly: -0.1%, first drop since May 2020.
Core CPI: +2.6% YoY, unchanged MoM.
Fed Funds: 3.50% – 3.75%
September Hike Odds: 51.9% per CME FedWatch
Gasoline prices fell to $4.18/gallon from $4.61, easing headline inflation. But Fed officials remain hawkish due to oil volatility from the Iran war and core PCE still at 3.34%, well above the 2% target.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the Fed may need to raise rates in the “near term” if core CPI stayed hot. New Chairman Kevin Warsh w