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#JuneCPIFedHike20%:
June CPI Cools but Fed Hike Odds Still 51.9%
June CPI: +3.5% YoY, down from 4.2% in May. Monthly: -0.1%, first drop since May 2020.
Core CPI: +2.6% YoY, unchanged MoM.
Fed Funds: 3.50% – 3.75%
September Hike Odds: 51.9% per CME FedWatch
Gasoline prices fell to $4.18/gallon from $4.61, easing headline inflation. But Fed officials remain hawkish due to oil volatility from the Iran war and core PCE still at 3.34%, well above the 2% target.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the Fed may need to raise rates in the “near term” if core CPI stayed hot. New Chairman Kevin Warsh will tell Congress the Fed has “no tolerance” for persistently elevated inflation.
Market View: July FOMC hold odds 84.5%. But nine of 19 policymakers now see a 2026 hike, up from zero three months ago. One month of cooler data isn’t enough — the Fed wants several months of sustained disinflation.
#JuneCPI #Fed