#夏日创作营 Oil prices breaking above 100 is just the start!? Is there still a way for gold bulls?
Today’s focus
After news broke that the Houthis attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, Trump responded forcefully on Thursday, vowing that if the Houthis launch similar attacks again, the U.S. will hold Iran responsible and impose “significant military penalties” on Iran and its allies. This statement signals another upgrade in U.S. policy toward Iran. Previously, U.S. airstrikes were mainly limited to military targets within Iran and facilities related to the Strait of Hormuz, while the wording “significant military penalties” suggests the scope of strikes may be greatly expanded—going forward, it is not ruled out that actions could involve Iran’s domestic energy infrastructure, command-and-control systems, and even ground military operations.
Crude oil
Concerns that disruptions in transportation will further widen quickly intensified, driving global oil prices to record one of the most violent rallies since the outbreak of war. Brent crude jumped by about 7%, breaking above $100 per barrel for the first time since May, and closed at $101.97; U.S. crude rose 6.8% to $92.36, setting the highest closing price since June 4. With this war now entering its fifth month, it is spreading from the Gulf region to the Red Sea, Jordan, and Kuwait, and fears of a global economic recession have accordingly intensified. From the daily chart structure, WTI crude has recently surged quickly after breaking above its prior consolidation range; the moving-average system has turned back to a bullish alignment, and the medium-term trend has clearly improved. Currently, price is hovering near $91.50. Key resistance overhead to watch is the $92–$95 area; if price further breaks above $95, the market may open up room to test the $100 psychological level. Key support below is first around $87, followed by the $84 area; if price breaks below $84, the short-term strong structure could be damaged.
Gold
Spot gold saw a sharp selloff on Thursday. After touching a two-week high, it quickly pulled back and ultimately closed down more than 2%, at $4,049.26 per ounce. This decline was driven first by a dual squeeze from both technical factors and exchange rates—the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.32% to 101.44 on the day, posting its largest single-day gain in nearly a month, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield also climbed to a level more than a year high. But the deeper logic is that the situation in the Middle East suddenly deteriorated: oil prices surging reinforced inflation expectations, putting additional pressure on gold ahead of the Fed meeting next week.
From the trading screen, yesterday’s gold price formed a standard “rally then pull back” pattern after rising sharply. The strength from the prior period could not be sustained into the Asian and European sessions; overall it went into a pressured, consolidating-to-weak phase, and bullish rebounds lacked momentum. In the U.S. session, bearish momentum concentrated and the price probed further downward, with the close ending near the day’s lows. The day’s trading range was 4040–4140, a 100-point swing. The daily chart closed with a large bearish candle; it effectively broke below short-term moving-average support and continuously knocked through multiple key supports including 4108, 4090, and 4070—meaning the earlier rally structure has been fully reversed.
Looking across cycles, the daily chart broke below the 12EMA, and the medium-term trend has shifted from strong to weak. The 4-hour chart shows consecutive large bearish declines, with the bearish alignment taking shape. On the 1-hour chart, price has continued to be suppressed by the 12EMA; bullish and bearish cycles form bearish resonance across different timeframes, making the weak pattern clear. Previously, gold rebounded from 3960; this current pullback is a technical, deep correction after the upswing. Price has already retraced back to the 0.618 key support level of the 3960–4163 upswing range, and this is the first time since the current up move began that a deep weakening signal has appeared. Although there is still a need for an oversold rebound and repair in the short term, the overall bearish trend structure has not changed.
Intraday strategy is mainly to follow the trend and remain slightly bearish. Overhead, watch the 4075–4090 resistance zone; this area aggregates moving-average pressure and resistance from the prior support-to-resistance conversion, so rebounds there may be used to bet on further downside. Below, 4000–4020 is the core intraday support zone, serving as the short-term line between strength and weakness; if the pullback holds and stabilizes, a small position can be used to bet on a rebound and repair. Most likely, today will feature weak consolidation and a range “dip,” with higher cost-effectiveness on both ends. Positions should not blindly chase trades at the middle price levels.
FX
The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.32% to 101.54 on Thursday. It intensified inflation concerns and boosted expectations for Fed rate hikes—the market expects the probability of a rate hike next week to rise from 11.8% one week ago to 35.8%, and the probability of a rate hike in September to rise from 52.4% to 81.4%.
U.S. stocks
U.S. stocks fell across the board on Thursday. The Dow Jones fell 0.97% to 51,711.65, the S&P 500 fell 1.21% to 7,408.30, and the Nasdaq plunged 2.15% to 25,137.69. The main reasons were worries in the market about huge spending on artificial intelligence triggered by earnings reports from tech giants, along with Brent crude futures first breaking above $100 per barrel since May and U.S. crude breaking above $92, which intensified inflation concerns and pushed bond yields higher.
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