#夏日创作营 The Federal Reserve’s policy meeting this Wednesday is drawing close attention. Interest-rate futures currently show a rate-hike probability of about 30% to 35%, adding further variables to market uncertainty.

According to reports, PGIM Chief U.S. Economist Robert Sockin described this week’s policy meeting as “almost a fifty-fifty split.” Although expectations for a rate hike have been warming up, most economists believe the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this week.
In a Bloomberg survey of 76 economists, all respondents expect the Fed to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged in the 3.5% to 3.75% range at the July 28–29 meeting. Investors will closely scrutinize the Fed’s statement and Powell’s wording to look for clues as to whether the Fed might raise rates in September.
LESG data shows that U.S. money markets have fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate hike in September. James Knottly, chief international economist at ING, said Powell has consistently avoided forward guidance and preferred short policy statements, so investors may find it difficult to obtain clear signals.
Scott Wren, senior global markets strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said that if the market feels that more and more Fed officials are starting to support multiple rate hikes for the rest of this year, that would become a concern for the market.
After the Fed releases its interest-rate decision, the Bank of Japan will announce its rate decision on July 31. The market expects the BoJ to keep monetary policy unchanged, after it raised rates by 25 basis points in June.
In addition, the Bank of England will release its interest-rate decision on July 30, and the market expects it to keep rates unchanged as well. The focus will be on comments from BoE Governor Bailey about the pace of future rate cuts, as well as how the Middle East situation, pushing up energy prices, could affect the outlook for U.K. inflation.