#夏日创作营 Bitcoin may drop in August to $50k, with the real bottom only forming in October
Analyst Noname said on X that Bitcoin will not bottom out this quarter. Sideways consolidation reflects indecision; at these price levels, indecision often breaks downward first, then upward. At least another quarter must pass before the market becomes clear. His forecast for 2026 is as follows:
July: False stabilization. A bear-trap rebound. The market shakes out the wavering, eliminating the indecisive
August: The real selloff begins. First test of the $50k region
September: Continued pressure. A W-shaped bottom structure starts to form
October: The real bottom. An accumulation zone. Individuals will take aggressive strategies at this stage
November: Signs of recovery; the bottoming bounce begins
December: The first break above the $100k mark since the bear market began

#跟单日记 How to Choose a Copy Trader — A “Avoid Pitfalls” Guide
Don’t just look at returns! Especially those with extremely high short-term returns—these are often high-risk strategies.
You should evaluate the following indicators comprehensively:
Return curve: Choose copy traders with a smooth upward curve and small drawdowns. Curves that surge and crash wildly come with extremely high risk.
Maximum drawdown: This is a more important metric than return! It measures the worst loss on the copy trader’s account history. A drawdown that’s too large indicates weak risk control ability.
Win rate: The proportion of profitable trades to total trades. High win rate with a suitable profit-to-loss ratio is usually more stable.
Trading cycle: Observe at least performance over 3-6 months. Copy traders who have gone through multiple bull and bear cycles or different market styles are more reliable.
Holding time: Avoid choosing copy traders who frequently do short-term trades (they may be “scraping” commission).
Money management: Check how they control risk in each trade—do they tend to go heavy and bet heavily?
Number of followers and asset size: More people and a larger total managed asset size are relatively more trustworthy, but also be wary of the “celebrity effect.”