$SOXL Bitcoin dropped 12.76% in 24 hours, dropping from 130 to 101, with a 28% range. The “history-pattern” crowd is here: after Bitcoin’s first three halvings, the SOXL-linked semiconductor ETF saw a 30%+ pullback once in weeks 8–12 after the halving. Has this one already bottomed? Past data: the average drawdown in week 6 after the halving was -18%. Today is exactly week 7, and the drawdown is already -15%, still not yet at the average. If it drops another 6% to around 96, it would fit the historical script’s “panic bottom.”

Don’t rush to bottom-fish. The 24h trading volume is $2.59B, which is 2x normal, suggesting sell-off and dip-buying orders are fighting it out. Historical pattern: weeks 10–14 after the halving are where the main uptrend starts; now it’s week 7, with another 3 weeks of consolidation ahead. Trading suggestion: if it breaks below 100, wait for it to stop falling near 96 before rebuilding positions. Cut loss at 92, and take profit first around 120. Keep position size under 30%.
History won’t simply repeat, but it will rhyme. I’m an old leek; I’ve been standing in Gate Plaza for three cycles. I know this rhythm. Follow me—next week I’ll tell you whether the script has been rewritten.