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June 12 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis
🤯 News:
Yesterday, Bitcoin rebounded from a morning low of about $61,456 to above $63,000-$63,500, boosted by soft inflation data and signals of nearing agreement between Trump and Iran, with the stock market (Nasdaq rising) risk appetite warming.
Geopolitical tensions (previous Iran-related conflicts) once suppressed the market, but easing signals prompted a rebound. Events like SpaceX IPO also attracted market attention, possibly diverting some risk capital.
Broader context: Since the peak of around $126k in October 2025, Bitcoin has retraced over 40-50% by 2026, affected by high inflation, hawkish Federal Reserve, and institutional de-risking.
🤯 Capital:
ETF outflows are the main drag: US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of over $2 billion in May, continuing into June (total over $2-4 billion), led by BlackRock IBIT and others. Institutional/hedge fund reductions are significant, representing the biggest pressure source in 2026.
On-chain data: A large amount of Bitcoin is in a loss state (over 10 million BTC, more than half of circulating supply), with first-time profit supply less than loss supply, indicating bear market characteristics. However, long-term holders (LTH) remain relatively stable, with miner accumulation (MPI negative). Coinbase Premium turning negative shows net selling by US institutions.
Corporate holdings (such as Strategy's previous small sales) add uncertainty, but overall institutional adoption continues to deepen (company treasury Bitcoin holdings increasing).
🤯 Technical:
Today’s outlook is the same as yesterday’s. Yesterday, we saw a rebound as expected, and at this level on the daily chart, it will likely form a MACD bullish crossover below zero, which will drive a rebound. However, the rebound strength won't be large, and after this rebound ends, a daily downtrend will follow, which is our opportunity.
In the short term, on the hourly and four-hour charts, there will be a rebound, with resistance around 66,000.
Support: 61,600-60,000
Resistance: 64,500-66,000