#我的Gate交易时刻 70,000 Liquidation Lessons: A Regular Trader’s True Reflection

Preface

This is not a technical post teaching you “how to precisely buy the dip and sell the top,” nor is it a “myth of a hundredfold coin riches”—I’ve made money and lost money, but far from being able to teach others how to get rich. If you’re looking for exciting stories, this might not be suitable for you.

But within this content, there is an ordinary trader’s real experience, real judgment, and real reflection gained through more than two years of market ups and downs, exchanged for real money. If you’re willing to read on, I hope it can give you a little bit of inspiration.

1. December 2025: The Trade That Completely Changed My Perspective

First, I’ll give you an overall timeline to help you understand the market situation I’m about to discuss—

In May 2025, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of about $112k. But by June 11, 2026, BTC was quoted at around $62k, a nearly 45% drop. Ethereum fared even worse, falling over 60% from its high, with prices around $1,600. If you entered near the top, your paper gains have now been cut nearly in half.

This wasn’t a flash crash but a prolonged “boiling frog” scenario lasting nearly half a year—dropping a little each day, making new weekly lows, gradually trapping bulls in a quagmire.

The moment I truly felt the “boiling frog” effect was in December 2025.

Late last year, Bitcoin oscillated around $90k for more than half a month. Various KOLs repeatedly called out “the last chance to buy below $100k,” and a FOMO atmosphere spread through chat groups, with a sense of “if you don’t buy now, it’ll be too late.” Plus, the Federal Reserve had canceled its $500 billion standing repo limit, which was widely interpreted as “de facto easing,” and my circle was almost unanimously bullish. I was swept up in this sentiment too.

My strategy at the time was: buy BTC spot gradually around $90k, while opening 4x leverage contracts for swing trading, trying to build a large position in this “bottom zone.”

I won’t go into the details of the process—long story short, from the sharp downturn in mid-January, to touching a low of $63k in February, then a brief rebound to $74k in March before turning down again—my positions were repeatedly drained in this rollercoaster. In the end, my four accounts lost about 700k RMB in total, and my futures positions were nearly wiped out.

During that period, I could hardly sleep. Not because I lost money, but because I couldn’t understand: all signs pointed to optimism, fundamentals weren’t collapsing, why was it like this?

After a long reflection, I arrived at an answer that many seasoned traders might already know: in any market, when “everyone is optimistic,” that’s already the biggest bearish signal. Your “independent judgment” is just part of the herd mentality.

2. About the Current Market: Several Data-Based Judgments

After that loss, I learned one thing: stop relying on “how I feel” to make decisions, and instead base them on data and logic as much as possible.

Here are some observations based on public data:

1. BTC dropped 51%, but this isn’t necessarily a typical “bear market”

As of early June 2026, Bitcoin traded between $61,500 and $64,000, down over 50% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,200.

That decline sounds terrifying, but in Bitcoin’s historical context, it’s actually the shallowest bear market retracement ever. Compared to over 90% retracement in 2012, and more than 77% in 2018 and 2022, this is relatively mild. Moreover, the current decline is fundamentally different from systemic crises like FTX; it’s more about valuation compression under macro rate pressures, not internal structural collapse.

Some analysts believe the retracement is less severe because Bitcoin has become more institutionalized via ETFs, with deeper liquidity and a stronger base of long-term holders.

2. From a technical perspective, key support is at $60k

Technically, $60k is the most critical psychological level right now. It’s not just an integer; it’s also the lower boundary of the support zone formed by the lows in February and June 2026. On the daily chart, the price has broken below all major moving averages, showing a clear bearish alignment.

The MACD indicator shows DIF and DEA still below zero, with green bars narrowing but no clear bottom divergence yet. From a purely technical standpoint, the current rebound is more likely a correction within a downtrend rather than a trend reversal.

If $60k fails, the next support could shift down to the August 2024 zone—already the bottom before the last bull run. Wintermute’s analysis also confirms this: support at $62k has been broken, and the next key technical level is not clearly defined.

3. Macro factors: rate cut expectations are still oscillating

The biggest macro variable remains the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. After the CPI data release on June 11, Bitcoin didn’t follow the expected one-sided move. This “neither falling on bad news nor rising on good news” state indicates the market is in a wait-and-see phase amid information vacuum.

Some analysts believe 2026 will be a year of “moderate growth and cautious rate cuts,” and Bitcoin’s performance will largely reflect these macro factors—real yields, liquidity, and expectations of Fed actions. In other words, until the macro path becomes clearer, the market is likely to remain volatile.

3. A Few Shallow Thoughts on Market Predictions and Meme Coins

Honestly, I’ve always been cautious about Meme coins. Early 2026 saw a strong rebound in Meme tokens—PEPE, BONK, and others surged over 30% in 24 hours, quickly boosting market risk appetite. But the fragility of Meme ecosystems is obvious: whale holdings are highly concentrated (for example, nearly 63% of Shiba Inu’s supply is controlled by 10 wallets), driven by emotion and high volatility, heavily reliant on speculative capital flows. My view is that Meme coins can serve as a sentiment indicator, but as long-term holdings, their risk-reward ratio is hard to justify.

Prediction markets are another interesting track. Since 2026, nominal trading volume has exceeded $20 billion for four consecutive months, with April approaching a record $30 billion. Gate has integrated Polymarket into its platform, even launching a $500k USDT prize pool for World Cup predictions. Although trading volume dipped in April and May, the first week of June rebounded to $1.9 billion, and with the World Cup opening, participation is expected to rise again.

Prediction markets are evolving from niche crypto-native scenes into a new model combining information analysis, data-driven insights, and trading strategies. But fundamentally, prediction markets are about information asymmetry—unless you have insights beyond the market’s average, heavy positions are not recommended.

4. Four Words for Crypto Newcomers

After two years of ups and downs, here are a few words—not preachy, just what I wish I’d heard two years earlier, maybe saving me from many losses:

1. Slow is fast; capital is more important than anything. The first priority in this market isn’t making money, but surviving. Only by surviving can you have the chance for compound growth. Contracts, leverage, all-in bets—these words are best kept at arm’s length.

2. Don’t fight the trend, and don’t follow the crowd when everyone’s crazy. Currently, the market widely expects $60k to be a key psychological level. A bearish scenario might test $55k or even $45k again. But I won’t short just because of these data points—guessing bottoms in a downtrend or tops in an uptrend is equally dangerous. Going with the trend, patiently waiting for clearer signals, is more important than any “precise prediction.”

3. Every loss is worth a serious review. There’s a saying 💰 in trading rules: true 🙃 value isn’t in money, but in forced reflection. The lesson I paid 700k RMB for can be summarized in one sentence: “Don’t make decisions driven by emotion.” Later, I realized there are at least thirty specific actions behind this—ranging from position management, strict stop-loss and take-profit rules, to staying away from chat noise. That’s the real value of reflection—not to flatter oneself, but to avoid repeating the same mistakes.

4. The market doesn’t kill capital; it kills confidence. As someone shared on Gate, the real killer of this market correction was “completely eroding the hopes of altcoin traders”—market confidence and entry courage are exhausted. If you find yourself in a state of “watching but not wanting to touch, touching and regretting,” it’s better to pause and rest for a while. Staying sober and waiting for the bottom is much better than repeatedly getting chopped up in chaos.

Final Words

This isn’t a “divine operation reflection,” just a true record from an ordinary trader—what I’ve earned, lost, understood, and still haven’t fully figured out.

No one can accurately predict how long this bear market will last. Some see a retracement of 51% from the $126,000 high, calling it the shallowest bear in history; others worry about macro uncertainties and see more downside. But regardless of the market’s direction, those who survive are always those who learn lessons from each trade and keep refining their decision models.

If you’ve struggled or felt lost in this market, welcome to leave comments and share.