SpaceX IPO to land on NASDAQ tomorrow: $1.77 trillion valuation sparks an epic capital pricing

On June 12, 2026, Elon Musk's space exploration company SpaceX will officially go public on NASDAQ, with the stock ticker SPCX. This IPO will issue a total of 555.6 million shares at a price of $135 per share, raising approximately $75 billion, which values the company at about $1.77 trillion. What does this number signify? It directly surpasses the previous global fundraising record set by Saudi Aramco's $29.4 billion IPO in 2019, with SpaceX's fundraising nearly tripling that amount. In terms of valuation ranking, SpaceX will surpass Tesla and enter the top ten U.S. publicly traded companies by market cap.

However, behind these astonishing figures, there are significant market disagreements regarding SpaceX's valuation.

$1.77 Trillion Valuation and Over $250 Billion Subscription Demand: A Record-Breaking Capital Feast

The market enthusiasm for this IPO far exceeds expectations. According to sources, SpaceX has attracted over $250 billion in investor subscription demand, with an oversubscription rate of 3.5 to 4 times the planned issuance size. This demand means that even based on the $75 billion fundraising target, market subscription interest has already exceeded fourfold. Underwriters also have a 30-day over-allotment option, allowing them to purchase up to an additional 83.33 million shares, corresponding to an extra approximately $11.2 billion in funding. Major institutions such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Securities, Citigroup, J.P. Morgan, and Barclays are serving as book runners for this issuance.

From a financial fundamentals perspective, SpaceX is still operating at a loss. The IPO prospectus shows that in 2025, the company's total revenue was $18.7 billion, with an operating loss of $2.6 billion. In Q1 2026, revenue reached $17.7k, but net losses soared to $17.7k. As of March, the company's total debt stood at $29.1 billion. Breaking down by business segment, Starlink is the only profitable "cash cow": in 2025, the revenue from the connectivity segment centered on Starlink was $4.69B, with an operating profit of $4.28B, and an operating margin of 38.8%. The rocket launch business remains unprofitable, with space segment revenue of $4.42B in 2025 and an operating loss of $657 million. The AI business, due to the full acquisition of xAI, has incurred significant losses, with fierce competition and declining gross margins.

The market's logic for assigning a $1.77 trillion valuation is not based on current profitability but on expectations of SpaceX's future business landscape. The company currently covers three core sectors—rocket launches and space transportation, Starlink satellite internet, and AI (with full acquisition of xAI completed in February 2026). This "space + communication + AI" integrated layout forms the market's core bet on its long-term growth potential.

Dissecting the "Three-in-One" Logic Behind SpaceX's $1.77 Trillion Valuation

Orbital AI Data Centers: The Core Narrative from Prospectus to IPO Roadshow

During the IPO roadshow, SpaceX executives focused on explaining the orbital AI data center plan to investors. According to participants, President Gwyn Shotwell and CFO Brett Johnson explicitly stated at an investor conference led by Goldman Sachs that the company plans to complete the first demonstration launches of space-based AI computing infrastructure by the end of 2027, ahead of the "earliest 2028" deployment timeline disclosed in the prospectus. The initial phase is defined as a demonstration system to verify technical feasibility, followed by full commercialization.

Technologically, Elon Musk detailed the design of the AI data center satellites in a video released just before the IPO. The satellite, codenamed "AI1," features a giant photovoltaic panel with a wingspan of 70 meters, capable of supporting an average computational load of 120 kW, peaking at 150 kW—roughly equivalent to the power consumption of an NVIDIA GB300 AI server rack. Musk stated that building orbital AI data centers is not an insurmountable engineering challenge; existing Starlink V3 satellites already possess most of the necessary technology, and AI satellites are structurally even simpler than Starlink satellites.

SpaceX has applied for regulatory approval to launch up to one million space-based data center satellites. The company claims in the IPO documents to be "the only enterprise with a commercially viable path to large-scale construction of orbital AI computing systems." In the roadshow materials, SpaceX further emphasized that the AI-related market opportunity could reach $23 trillion, and proposed that future capabilities could include launching and constructing data centers and other infrastructure in space.

It should be noted that the orbital data center plan still faces engineering uncertainties. The success of this roadmap is highly dependent on the "Starship" fully reusable rocket project, which is currently behind early expectations and has yet to demonstrate the rapid reusability needed for large-scale, low-cost satellite deployment. The deployment target of 2028 in the prospectus also leaves room for delays in Starship development and satellite manufacturing.

Rational Dissection of Valuation Controversy: Is $1.77 Trillion Reasonable?

There is significant disagreement in the market regarding SpaceX's valuation. Supporters argue that SpaceX has clear competitive advantages in commercial spaceflight: it accounts for 83% of total launch volume from Earth to orbit and has reduced launch costs by over 95%. Starlink has over 10.3 million subscribers across 164 countries and regions, providing a stable recurring revenue stream. On the demand side, just before listing, SpaceX secured two large orders: a leasing agreement with Anthropic for computing power, paying $1.25 billion per month; and a $30 billion cloud service agreement with Google, paying $920 million monthly from October 2026 to June 2029. These two orders lock in over $2.1 billion in monthly recurring revenue. Additionally, the company is collaborating with Tesla to build the Terafab chip factory in the U.S., aiming to integrate the "rocket-satellite-chip" full industry chain.

On the skeptical side, the valuation shows clear "expectation premium" features. Wall Street "short-selling master" James Chanos publicly stated that SpaceX's IPO is driven more by investor enthusiasm for Musk and the AI hype than by fundamentals, and "any reasonable business assumption cannot support SpaceX's valuation." Michael Burry, the prototype of "The Big Short," after reviewing the S-1, believed that "nothing in the document justifies a $1 trillion or even $2 trillion valuation." NYU finance professor Aswath Damodaran estimated that SpaceX's true valuation might be only around $1.3 trillion, mainly because the actual value of its AI business is overestimated. Independent research firm Morningstar is even more aggressive, suggesting the per-share offering price is only $63, less than half of the IPO price.

Logically, the core issue in the valuation debate centers on the monetization potential of AI. Currently, xAI's Grok has minimal direct subscription revenue from both consumer and enterprise clients. The $920 million monthly contract with Google involves capital expenditures exceeding $10 billion, including GPU purchases, supercomputing centers, and electricity costs. Given the rapid technological iteration in AI, maintaining a so-called "AI advantage" requires continuous reinvestment of funds earned from launches and Starlink into next-generation hardware and data centers, significantly increasing capital intensity: in FY2023, capital expenditure was only 42% of revenue, but in Q1 2026, it soared to 215%. In comparison, competitors like OpenAI and Anthropic are accelerating IPO plans, reportedly filing secretly. Without a clear technological or cost leadership in AI models, SpaceX's AI business is more akin to low-margin "hardware leasing" rather than a high-margin autonomous ecosystem.

Industry Chain Transmission: The Secondary Market Opportunities Brought by SpaceX IPO

Despite the valuation controversy, the IPO's impact on global capital markets is already evident. On the demand side, SpaceX allocated 25% to 30% of the issuance to retail investors, far exceeding the typical 5-10% for large IPOs. The company designated online brokers like Robinhood, SoFi, E-Trade, Charles Schwab, and Fidelity for distribution, with Fidelity lowering the retail participation threshold from $500k to $2,000.

However, due to restrictions under the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR), investors in mainland China and Hong Kong are prohibited from participating in the primary market subscription of SpaceX. Underwriters have been instructed not to accept subscription orders from clients in these regions, with the ban covering even private banking clients.

Unable to participate directly, Asian investors are turning to related stocks in the SpaceX supply chain. In the A-share market, companies like XWTT (300136.SZ), a satellite ground terminal supplier, and Western Superconducting (688122.SH), a rocket-grade metal materials supplier, have attracted attention. Apple and Tesla suppliers like Lens Technology (300433.SZ) have listed space as a new growth engine, with stock prices rising nearly 50% in 2026. According to brokerage reports, SpaceX's Starlink network deployment, Starship mass production, and space computing layout are expected to boost supply chain companies' orders and valuations. In Taiwan, companies like Jingpeng Industrial, Qiqi Technology, and Shengda Technology, which supply satellite components, have confirmed supplying SpaceX, seen as key gateways into the SpaceX supply chain.

Additionally, space-themed ETFs have become indirect channels for exposure. Since its launch in March, the Tema Space Innovators ETF has risen 29%, with about 6.49% of its holdings in SpaceX shares. Globally, European aerospace companies like Eutelsat and OHB have also seen double-digit gains this year.

Gate Direct IPO: How to Participate in SpaceX Investment?

For investors unable to participate in SpaceX's primary market through traditional channels, Gate's IPO Access service offers an alternative. This digital IPO participation platform allows users to submit intent-to-apply requests before the company goes public and complete subscriptions using USDT. After listing, shares are directly allocated to the user's Gate stock account, providing a one-stop experience of "listing and immediate allocation."

SpaceX is the first project on Gate IPO Access. The subscription window opens at 10:00 UTC on June 9, 2026, and closes at 04:00 UTC on June 12, lasting 66 hours. The reference subscription price is $135 per share, with a minimum participation amount of 100 USDT and a maximum of 500,000 USDT. The platform uses an average locked-in amount mechanism to determine allocation weight: the system calculates each user's weighted average locked-in amount during the entire subscription period as a proportion of the total across all participants. The earlier the user completes the subscription, the higher their average locked-in amount and the greater their allocation weight. Shares are expected to be allocated between 14:00 and 15:00 UTC on June 12, with trading starting at 13:30 UTC on the same day. Post-allocation, there is no lock-up period, and shares can be traded immediately via the Gate app version 8.21.5 or above.

It should be noted that this subscription is an "expression of interest" and does not guarantee final allocation. Depending on the actual IPO size and the total allocation Gate receives, users may receive full, partial, or no allocation. If the final IPO price fluctuates within 20% of the reference price, automatic allocation occurs; if it exceeds 20%, secondary confirmation is required.

In secondary trading, Gate stocks support USDT trading for over 10k U.S. stocks and ETFs across NYSE, Nasdaq, and other major markets, with fractional trading starting as low as 0.01 shares.

Conclusion

SpaceX's IPO is a typical case testing the tension between "expected valuation" and "fundamental reality." Based on fundraising scale and subscription enthusiasm, this "century IPO" seems settled; however, disagreements over valuation logic and AI monetization paths remain prominent. The orbital AI data center plan is the most imaginative part of this valuation narrative and also the greatest source of uncertainty. For investors, whether participating in the primary market via Gate, trading U.S. stocks in the secondary market, or indirectly engaging through related industry chain stocks, a clear understanding of the above logical framework is essential. In the high-investment, long-cycle tracks of space and AI, whether SpaceX can turn today's "expectation" into tomorrow's "reality" will be a focus of ongoing capital market attention in the coming years.