June 11 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis

🤯 News:

Yesterday/Recent Focus: The impact of U.S. employment data, non-farm payrolls, and other macro indicators on interest rate expectations. Hot employment data once led to a decrease in the probability of rate cuts, pushing up the dollar and yields, and suppressing risk assets.

ETFs and Institutions: Continued significant outflows, but some small inflows on certain days. Leading products like BlackRock IBIT dominate, but overall institutional selling pressure still exists (partly related to rotation into other assets).

Others: Geopolitical/policy uncertainties (such as Fed dot plot expectations) continue to influence sentiment. The market Fear & Greed index is low, with strong panic sentiment, but historically, such extreme pessimism often corresponds to bottom areas.

🤯 Capital:

Recent Data: Multiple days of net outflows in early June (tens of millions to over a hundred million per day), with cumulative pressure large (e.g., over 4.3 billion outflow from late May to early June over 13 consecutive days). Around June 8-10, some days saw small positive inflows or easing, but the overall trend remains negative.

Leverage/Derivatives: Recently, there have been large liquidations (hundreds of millions to over a billion), mainly long positions, with neutral to low funding rates. Open interest (OI) has decreased, indicating some deleveraging from overheated leverage.

On-chain: Exchange reserves are decreasing, and whales/Smart Money show accumulation signals at low levels, but also accompanied by some distribution. HODLers' behavior is mixed, with increasing supply in a loss state (one of the signals of a bottom).

🤯 Technical:

Currently, the market is still mainly oscillating in the short term. The strong support for downward movement is at the 60k level. As long as this level is not broken, it can hold the short-term bottom. Attention should be paid to the strength of buying versus selling forces. If buying strength does not surpass selling strength, this level may not hold.

My personal view is that there will be a short-term rebound at this level. The rebound should be monitored around 64,200 to see if it can break through. If it cannot, the market may enter a downward correction on the daily chart, moving within the range of approximately 55,500 to 60k. This presents a short-term opportunity for us.

In summary, the short-term bottom at this level is not yet firm, so the market will likely continue to oscillate. Even if there is a rebound, its strength will be limited.

Support: 60,000 - 55,500
Resistance: 64,000