Macroeconomic triple pressures converge: How will CPI data and the FOMC meeting impact the future of cryptocurrencies?

2026 年 6 月 10 日, The crypto market is at a critical macro sentiment juncture. Well-known crypto KOL Ansem publicly stated that the upcoming CPI data, Wosh's first FOMC meeting and dot plot next week, combined with the continued strength of the stock market and seasonal factors in summer, may trigger risk-off and bottoming phases in the market over the next few months. This article will systematically analyze the logical chain among macro variables and their transmission mechanisms to the crypto market based on this warning signal.

Before entering a systematic analysis, first identify the current baseline state of the market. According to Gate market data, as of June 10, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) is quoted at approximately $61,700 USD, down about 2.3% in the past 24 hours. This price level has retraced over 20% from the mid-May high of $82,500 USD, with a low of $59,353 USD reached on June 6. Ethereum (ETH) also weakened, now at about $1,620 USD, down approximately 2.2% in 24 hours, over 20% below its recent high. The Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 9, remaining in the "Extreme Fear" zone for several days. These data form the real starting point for all macro inferences in this article.

How will the “bittersweet” CPI data reshape rate expectations?

The first variable in Ansem’s warning chain is the upcoming May CPI data. The data will be officially released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics at 20:30 Beijing time on June 10, and is regarded as the most important inflation indicator before the June FOMC meeting.

Market expectations show a rare divergence pattern: “overall inflation rising, core inflation easing.” The four major Wall Street institutions—Goldman Sachs, UBS, Deutsche Bank, and Morgan Stanley—predict May’s overall CPI year-over-year to be between 4.17% and 4.3%, significantly higher than April’s 3.81%. If these forecasts materialize, the YoY increase in overall CPI will be the highest since April 2023, returning above 4% for the first time in three years. The sharp rise is mainly driven by sustained conflict in Iran, which has caused energy prices to surge—gasoline prices have risen sharply, leading to an estimated 6-7% month-over-month increase in energy commodities in May, with energy as a whole rising nearly 4% MoM.

In stark contrast, the core CPI (excluding food and energy) is generally forecasted to be below market consensus, around 0.17% to 0.22% MoM. The slowdown in housing inflation—owner’s equivalent rent and main rent prices increasing about 0.22% to 0.23% MoM—is a key reason for the lower core CPI, significantly below April’s level of over 0.53%.

What does this divergence mean for the crypto market? Previously, the market had already priced in some upside risk for May inflation data. The key point is: if the overall CPI exceeds 4%, the market’s last expectation of a rate cut within the year could vanish entirely, with Goldman Sachs’ chief U.S. economist abandoning the 2026 rate cut forecast and pushing the timing to 2027. However, if the core inflation signals cooling, the market’s fear of “rate hikes” might be somewhat alleviated. This implies that the ultimate market impact of CPI data depends not just on “high or low,” but on the relative weight of the overall versus core inflation paths, and whether the energy-driven inflation pulse is sustainable.

Additionally, gasoline prices have fallen about 40 cents per gallon since peaking on May 20. UBS expects this will lead to a MoM decline of about 0.13% in the overall CPI for June, with YoY falling back to around 3.81%. This suggests May may have been the peak of this round of overall inflation. This forward-looking judgment will profoundly influence how the market prices inflation expectations over the coming months.

Will the better-than-expected May non-farm payroll data shake the Fed’s policy path?

The second key link in Ansem’s warning chain is the unexpectedly strong employment report released last Friday. Non-farm employment increased by 172k in May, far exceeding the Reuters economist forecast of 85k, with April’s data revised upward to 179k. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3% for the third consecutive month, with the labor force participation rate stable at 61.8%, and hourly wages rose marginally by 0.3% MoM.

This employment data’s significance goes beyond the surface “better than expected.” In a resilient labor market environment, the Fed will lose a key argument for cutting rates. Huatai Securities’ research report explicitly states that the May non-farm payrolls’ surprise increase reinforces the need for the Fed to hike. The Kansas City Fed President, Esther George, publicly discussed rate hikes for the first time, stating that inflation is the biggest risk to the U.S. economy. The rate market has now priced in a more than 40% probability of a 25 basis point hike before the end of the year.

For the crypto market, the excess strength in employment data means macro risks for risk assets will persist. The narrative around Fed monetary policy is shifting from “when will rate cuts start” to “are rate hikes inevitable.” This shift in narrative itself will trigger a reevaluation of risk asset valuations. Although the probability of the Fed holding rates steady in June remains high at 98.2%, the market’s focus has shifted from the short term to the policy pivot window in the second half of 2026—this is when crypto assets’ sensitivity to rate path expectations peaks within the year.

It’s noteworthy that the “resilience” of the labor market and the “high level” of inflation data form a reinforcing feedback loop: strong employment demand sustains inflation stickiness, and high inflation levels further justify rate hikes. This positive feedback is squeezing the Fed’s policy maneuvering space.

What key signals will Wosh’s first FOMC meeting release?

From June 16 to 17, Fed Chair Kevin Wosh will preside over his first FOMC meeting since taking office. Unlike regular meetings, this one has three special aspects, forming the core logical pivot of Ansem’s warning.

First is Wosh’s own policy stance. He has explicitly stated he does not believe in forward guidance and may abolish the quarterly “dot plot” rate forecasts. Wosh plans to reform the Fed’s rate communication mechanism as early as mid-June. If the “dot plot” is phased out, the market will lose an important medium-term rate guidance tool, leaving it to interpret policy paths based solely on macro data, which will significantly increase volatility.

Second is the change in wording in the policy statement. The Fed is likely to remove the phrase “leaning toward further easing,” and market attention is on whether this removal will be accompanied by clearer signals of rate hikes. Some analysts suggest the Fed’s “tightening transformation” may begin this month—although a June hike is almost impossible, this meeting could lay the groundwork for policy shifts in the second half of the year.

Third is Trump’s political interference. Trump publicly stated before the meeting that “there is no reason to hike rates,” while also claiming “Kevin is excellent, and I hope he acts according to his judgment.” This dual message expresses political preferences but does not fully preclude Wosh’s decision-making space. Wosh needs to balance the White House’s will and market trust, which is itself a major source of uncertainty.

Morgan Stanley warns that if Wosh or the latest dot plot signals hawkish intentions, volatility could spike rapidly, triggering unwind of arbitrage positions; conversely, if the Fed hints at a rate cut, it could also cause sharp reactions due to market surprise. Regardless of the outcome, volatility around the meeting is almost certain to increase.

How do seasonal retracement patterns resonate with the current macro environment?

Ansem explicitly lists “seasonal factors in summer” as one of the triggers, based on historical statistics. Data shows that over the past decade, Bitcoin’s average return in June has been only +0.7%, with summer months generally characterized by sideways consolidation, and August and September historically being the weakest months, often with price corrections and sideways trading.

This year, seasonal effects are amplified. On one hand, Bitcoin has already fallen 16% since the start of the year, with the current correction depth and duration below historical averages. If the traditional “summer doldrums” window coincides with current macro pressures, the depth and length of the correction could surpass seasonal expectations. On the other hand, May usually performs strongly, but this May’s gains are significantly below historical averages, increasing the probability of seasonal reversal. This suggests that the pressure on the traditional weak window from June to September could be even greater.

From a larger cycle perspective, Bitcoin’s price movements have always revolved around two core axes: the halving cycle approximately every four years and the global liquidity environment. 2026 is in the second year after the halving, a phase historically associated with a transition from overheating to cooling. However, the current situation is unique: macro liquidity is shifting from easing expectations to tightening, while supply-side benefits from halving are gradually translating into price premiums. When seasonal, macro, and fundamental forces all point toward a correction, “risk-off” becomes a multi-layered logical risk path rather than just a subjective judgment.

How does the logical chain from CPI to FOMC to market bottoming close?

Connecting these variables into a complete logical chain: high overall inflation + resilient core inflation in May → market’s expectation of rate cuts in 2026 diminishes or shifts to rate hikes → Wosh’s policy stance at the June FOMC becomes the core window for reassessing rate paths → during this period, seasonal weakness from June to August overlays → market funds tend to reduce risk exposure (risk-off) amid uncertainty → after macro uncertainties are sufficiently digested, the market enters a bottoming phase.

Ansem’s view is that macro pressure will not immediately destroy the market but will follow a “persistent pressure—emotional cooling—natural bottoming” path for clearing. This process could take weeks or even the entire summer, not just a few days. It’s also worth noting that Ansem explicitly states “funds will not rotate from tech stocks into BTC or ETH now,” and points out that MSTR stock is extremely weak. This suggests that even if U.S. stocks decline, crypto markets are unlikely to immediately become an alternative capital inflow channel. The independent trend of crypto assets depends on a more fundamental macro change. Ansem even plans to short ETH at about $1,640 USD, with a plan to add positions between $1,680 and $1,700 USD, with a stop-loss at $1,735 USD—this public strategy reflects his ongoing bet on risk-off trends.

Do institutional capital rotations signal early bottoming?

While analyzing macro pressures, identifying early signals of “bottoming” is also crucial. Recent micro-structural changes are worth noting.

Institutional rotation signals are emerging. According to Gate data and multiple market sources, BlackRock has recently sold about 3,671 BTC and bought about 10,566 ETH. This raises two discussions: one, whether the reallocation between BTC and ETH indicates a reassessment of risk-reward profiles by institutions; two, whether asset swaps at relatively low prices (rather than full exit) suggest the market is approaching its perceived value zone.

Volatility indicators also provide reference points. According to latest Gate data, BVIX (Bitcoin volatility index) is at 46.9, and EVIX (Ethereum volatility index) at 60.12. Current volatility levels have risen significantly compared to previous quarters but have not reached panic extremes. The sustained high but non-extreme volatility aligns with typical “pre-bottoming” characteristics—panic has dissipated rather than exploded.

Furthermore, once the rate market fully digests rate hike expectations, it may create a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” reversal window. If the June FOMC signals hawkish or neutral, macro uncertainty will shift from “guessing” to “confirmation,” and the dissipation of uncertainty will trigger valuation adjustments. This forms the logical basis of Ansem’s warning: risk-off is a process, bottoming is a result, and together they constitute a complete but patience-requiring market cycle.

Summary

Ansem’s market warning is not just simple panic but a logical framework based on cross-validation of three macro variables.

Regarding CPI, overall inflation may break above 4%, reaching a three-year high, but easing core inflation creates divergence. Its impact on crypto depends on the market’s weighting of the two inflation paths.

On employment, May’s non-farm added 172k jobs, well above expectations, with unemployment steady at 4.3%. The resilient labor market constrains the Fed’s policy space, shifting the narrative from “when will rate cuts start” to “are rate hikes unavoidable.”

For the FOMC, Wosh’s first meeting involves three strategic considerations—inflation pressure, bond market rate pricing, and Trump’s political interference. The dot plot may be abandoned or removed from the forecast, with policy uncertainty peaking before and after the meeting.

Seasonally, June to September is a traditionally weak window for crypto returns. Combined with current macro pressures, the depth and duration of corrections could surpass seasonal expectations.

Market structure shows BTC has found support around $61,000 USD, ETH is weakening but volatility is narrowing, volatility indices remain high but not extreme, and there are signs of BTC to ETH rotation. The logical inference is that “risk-off” will likely precede a bottoming process—markets reduce risk exposure while waiting for macro uncertainties to clear—then gradually form a bottom in a context where downside is limited but immediate reversal conditions are absent.

This analytical framework aims to provide readers with a logical tool to understand the current macro environment and its linkage to the crypto market. All judgments should be dynamically calibrated based on actual macro data realization and market structural changes.

FAQ

Q: What specific indicators does Ansem’s warning rely on?

Ansem stated publicly on June 10, 2026, that the combination of upcoming CPI data, Wosh’s first FOMC meeting and dot plot next week, the continued strength of U.S. stocks, and seasonal summer factors could trigger risk-off and bottoming phases in the coming months. He also said there is no current rotation of funds from tech stocks into BTC or ETH, and he is short ETH.

Q: What does the May CPI data level imply for the crypto market?

Multiple institutions forecast May’s overall CPI YoY at 4.17% to 4.3%, hitting the highest since April 2023; core CPI MoM is expected around 0.17% to 0.22%, significantly below consensus. Rising overall inflation will reinforce rate hike narratives, but easing core inflation may partly alleviate fears of extreme tightening.

Q: Why is Wosh’s first FOMC meeting critical for crypto?

Wosh’s explicit stance against forward guidance and potential abolition of the dot plot will fundamentally change how market expectations for interest rates are formed. Whether the statement removes “leaning toward easing” and whether the dot plot is removed from forecasts will jointly determine the direction of Fed’s monetary policy narrative.

Q: Is a bottoming in crypto possible at current prices?

According to Ansem’s logic, “risk-off” is the core contradiction at this stage, and “bottoming” is a natural result after risk-off completes. Micro signals like institutional rotation (BTC to ETH) and high but not extreme volatility are early indicators, but confirmation requires macro uncertainties to be fully digested.

Q: How do crypto assets correlate with U.S. stocks under current macro conditions?

Historical data shows increasing correlation between crypto and tech stocks like Nasdaq over recent cycles. However, Ansem explicitly states that funds are unlikely to rotate from tech stocks into crypto now, meaning even if stocks decline, crypto markets are unlikely to immediately benefit from capital inflows. The independent trend depends on a more fundamental macro policy shift.