Negotiations break down again, crude oil prices jump in advance, weekend on-chain futures market observation

Last weekend, after the market closed, the market carried expectations of a continuation of the deadlock. Iran refused the second round of talks, causing crude oil to gap higher and the S&P index to fall below previous lows.

By midweek, progress began to appear in Pakistan’s mediation efforts. On Friday evening, Iranian Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian arrived in Islamabad with a delegation; the White House then announced that Special Envoys Viktorov and Kushner would head to Pakistan on Saturday to push forward the second round of negotiations. As a result, crude oil prices briefly plummeted over 3% after the 24th session, and the narrative that “the worst is over” reemerged.

However, this optimism lasted less than 36 hours.

At 22:34 on Saturday, a Pakistani source told Al-Arabiya: “Although Iran’s foreign minister plans to return to Islamabad on Sunday, Iran has made no concessions and maintains the same stance as before the negotiations began.” CBS followed up, reporting that Amir Abdollahian had left Pakistan. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei also confirmed on X: “There are no planned meetings between Iran and the United States.”

At 23:41, Trump personally called off Viktorov and Kushner’s trip to Pakistan.

At 23:52, Trump explained the decision to Fox News: “I just told my people, they were about to leave, and I said, ‘No, you’re not flying 18 hours for this. We hold all the cards. If they want to talk to us, they can call anytime.’”

Traders quickly responded on TradeXYZ, with crude oil contracts surging 2%, and S&P contracts falling by 0.55%.

That’s not all. In a subsequent interview with reporters, Trump revealed: “Interestingly, I just canceled the trip, and within less than 10 minutes, we received a new document, much better than the previous one.” He added that Iran “gave quite a bit, but not enough.”

From 23:26 to 23:27 on Sunday, Iranian state media Fars News Agency released two quick reports—Iran had submitted a written message to the U.S. through Pakistan, covering the nuclear issue and the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing “this is Iran’s initiative to initiate communication.”

This is the first time since the outbreak of hostilities that Iran’s official has publicly acknowledged initiating written communication.

Oil prices quickly retraced from the previous +1.3% level, marking the first “optimistic re-pricing” of the weekend market.

Early Monday, Axios reported that Iran proposed a “phased plan” to the U.S.: first resolve the Strait of Hormuz blockade, extend the ceasefire until the war is fully over, and delay nuclear negotiations until the strait reopens and the blockade is lifted. The proposal has been delivered to the White House via Pakistan, but it’s unclear whether the U.S. is willing to proceed based on this.

It’s worth noting that this plan bypasses the most difficult nuclear issues, which are also two of the core objectives of the Trump administration since the start of the conflict (suspending enrichment activities and removing high-enriched uranium stockpiles). Axios cited sources saying that Iran’s top leadership has no internal consensus on what concessions to make on nuclear issues, so they chose to exchange “straining the strait” for “flexibility on U.S. asset freezes.”

The Trump administration has not publicly responded to the details of this plan, but according to three U.S. officials, he will convene a meeting of the national security and diplomatic teams in the White House Situation Room on Monday to discuss the Iran situation, deadlock in negotiations, and next steps.

It can be said that Trump’s tough stance over the weekend did indeed lead to a more substantial concession plan, but he publicly stated it was “not enough.” In other words, the market is currently pricing in a “possibility of negotiations improving,” rather than “an agreement imminent.”

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