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#我的Gate交易时刻 The curtain on the World Cup is officially raised, and historical data reveals the true face of the “World Cup curse”
The 2026 World Cup football tournament officially opens. There is no doubt that the World Cup, held every four years, is a grand event for football fans worldwide. On the other hand, investors are also worried that the World Cup will divert market attention and have a negative impact on the investment market.
BlockBeats summarizes past historical data and organizes the following performance data of the US stock market and Bitcoin during the World Cup:
US stocks: Over the past 40 years during the World Cup, the S&P 500 has recorded 5 periods of gains and 5 periods of declines, with an average return of about -0.18% and a median of about +0.30%. Overall, there is no obvious “World Cup curse,” but volatility has clearly contracted. Among them, 1998 took place during a strong period for US stocks, with the largest rise during the matches; 2002 saw the largest decline, occurring during the stage when the internet bubble burst and there was an earnings-report trust crisis; in 2022, it was affected by Federal Reserve rate hikes, inflation, and recession expectations.
Bitcoin: Overall performance during past World Cups has been relatively weak. In particular, during the 2014, 2018, and 2022 World Cups, prices mostly showed a downward move or a trend of weakening sideways trading, with a clear “World Cup curse” effect. Among them, 2014, 2018, and 2022 were all bear market years for Bitcoin. Combined with the start of the World Cup, Bitcoin’s performance was notably weak, with Bitcoin’s largest drawdown in 2018 of about 15%.
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