#BTC BTC falls below the short-term cost zone! Market divergence intensifies, can we really make phased investments now?
Recently, Bitcoin has been continuously oscillating and weakening, with the price falling back to around $62,847, a slight decline of 0.29% in a single day. Now, the entire market presents a very subtle state: macro factors and ETF capital flows are under pressure everywhere, most people are bearish on the surface, but internally they are starting to get eager, many traders have set $50,000 as an ideal entry point, and some veteran players openly say that BTC often traps short-sellers before a big rally, breaking short-term holders' costs by 20%, and only restarting the trend after thoroughly clearing out floating positions.
Combining the latest on-chain data, mining indicators, market sentiment, and chip distribution, we objectively analyze the current market situation, discussing the feasibility, risk boundaries, and practical strategies for phased investment in BTC.
First, let's review the basic current situation: since Bitcoin surged above $82,000 in early May, it has entered a continuous decline. In just over a month, the price dropped from around $77,000 to the $62,000 range, a significant decline. From the surface market and external environment, short-term negative factors still dominate, which is the core reason for the market's overall bearish outlook. Currently, global inflation remains high, U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, and the dollar remains strong. As a high-risk asset, Bitcoin struggles to escape the pressure from tightening liquidity. When risk aversion rises, volatile crypto assets tend to be sold off first. Meanwhile, the performance of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF has been weak, recording the largest net outflow in a month in May, with continuous capital fleeing for several days, indicating that short-term institutional funds have not returned but are instead taking profits and repositioning to hedge risks. This also casts a shadow over the rebound of the coin price. Based on these signals, many believe the price will continue to decline, even further below $60,000, which has reasonable basis in reality.
However, if we shift our focus to on-chain data, mining indicators, and chip distribution at a deeper level, we will find that the market is not entirely weakening in one direction; the bulls and bears have already fully diverged.
First, look at the core on-chain indicators: the current BTC equilibrium price is $39,719, with a ratio of 1.58 times the current price, indicating a normal valuation range;
The MVRV Ratio is 1.17, and the MVRV Z-Score is only 0.34. Both indicators point to the market being in a normal, slightly undervalued zone, suitable for holding and phased investment.
The SOPR value, representing the selling wave, is 1.008, just near the critical value of 1.0, meaning the market’s concentrated selling wave is nearing its end, and we are now in a key observation window for the bulls and bears.
At the miner level, the Puell Multiple is as low as 0.55, indicating that miners' overall income is below the annual average, showing clear pressure and indirectly confirming that the market is approaching a bottom phase.
Looking at the overall mining fundamentals, the current total network hash rate remains at 857.5 EH/s, with shutdown price ranges between $30,238 and $93,898. The current price has not touched the shutdown red line for mainstream miners; top-tier mining machines are still profitable, but small and medium miners are beginning to face profit pressure.
Combining the ahr999 phased investment index reading of 13/22 and the Fear & Greed Index remaining in the extreme fear zone, historical patterns tell us that when the market falls into extreme panic, it is often the time when opportunities gradually emerge.
Another key signal to watch is the dense chip zone between $66,000 and $67,000, where, during the ongoing price decline, both new positions and the average transaction size in this range are increasing simultaneously.
From a trading characteristic perspective, this is not typical small retail investors bottom-fishing with small amounts, but rather large funds gradually accumulating chips during the decline. The market trend appears weak, but on-chain accumulation has quietly appeared, and the bulls and bears are in a stalemate.
Currently, there are two extreme mindsets in the market, which are also the easiest pitfalls for retail investors.
The first is complete panic: influenced by the short-term decline, believing Bitcoin will continue to weaken or even go to zero, holding large amounts of cash but not daring to enter, ultimately missing the bottom of the cycle;
The second is blind bottom-fishing: seeing the price drop and indicators bottom out, rushing to go all-in, betting on an immediate market reversal. If the price continues to fall, the mentality will collapse, leading to panic selling in deep correction. Both approaches are undesirable, and phased investment is precisely the most suitable strategy in this volatile bottoming phase.
Many are now waiting to accumulate at the $50,000 target, but when most market participants aim at the same price, that level may not appear as expected. The market might drop below $50,000 and then rebound quickly, causing latecomers to regret missing out; it could also briefly dip below $50,000 and then recover rapidly, creating a quick spike that leaves outside capital no chance to enter smoothly; or the price might hover in a long sideways range between $60,000 and $70,000, gradually eroding investors’ patience over time.
Waiting for a single price to bottom out is a gambler’s mindset, while the core logic of phased investment is not to insist on buying at the absolute lowest point but to give up the obsession with precise entry points, continuously deploying within the bottom zone, averaging down costs, so that whether the market consolidates, dips slightly, or rebounds later, you can respond calmly.
For long-term bullish investors planning to deploy in medium to long cycles, it is now appropriate to start light, phased investments, strictly controlling total position size, and avoiding large one-time capital injections. Keep a regular investment rhythm, ignore short-term fluctuations of a couple thousand dollars, and focus on the cyclical logic, especially since Bitcoin’s halving countdown still has 674 days remaining, and the medium-to-long-term narrative remains fundamentally unchanged.
For short-term traders, it is not advisable to frequently open positions to chase rebounds in this volatile environment. The current market is highly turbulent, with frequent spikes, combined with ETF outflows and macro negatives still present, making short-term rebounds highly unreliable. It’s better to stay on the sidelines, wait until prices stabilize at key resistance levels, and spot volume significantly increases before participating. Also, reiterate a few bottom-line principles:
First, stay far away from leveraged contracts. The market sentiment is fragile, large liquidations happen often, and high leverage easily triggers margin calls in volatile conditions. All short-term signals from signal providers and bottom-fishing strategies are often traps designed to harvest retail traders’ positions—don’t hold onto false hopes.
Second, reserve sufficient backup funds. Phased investment is not a one-time injection; be prepared for further price declines. Keeping cash on hand allows you to add positions during further dips, lowering your average cost and avoiding full liquidation.
Third, rationally view the bear trap: the veteran’s saying that “a 20% drop below cost triggers a big move” is just a historical pattern reference, not an absolute rule. Market conditions can change the pattern, so don’t blindly bet on deep corrections.
In conclusion, Bitcoin is currently in a stage of the battle between exhausted negatives and incremental capital inflows. The weak market and macro pressure are short-term realities, but on-chain indicators bottoming out and large funds quietly accumulating present potential opportunities. Extreme panic combined with multiple bottom indicators suggests that the deployment window is gradually opening, but the bear market bottoming process will be long and repetitive. The essence of phased investment is to use discipline to fight against human greed and fear. Don’t obsess over the elusive lowest point, nor let short-term declines crush your confidence. When market opportunities arise, maintain cash reserves, stick to your plan, and stay calm to harvest results across a complete bull-bear cycle.
