#沃什宣告终结前瞻指引 Wash ends Fed forward guidance, crypto faces 9 rate hike risks and liquidity test
The Fed formally abandoned forward guidance, reducing the policy statement from 341 words in April to 132 words. This leaves fewer policy signposts for the market to reference, requiring it to take on more responsibility for independent pricing.
Key data and indicators: 9 of the 18 policymakers expect a rate hike in 2026, the median interest rate in the dot plot was raised from 3.4% to 3.8%. Wash himself did not submit a personal forecast. Bitcoin closed down 0.6% after the Fed meeting, quoted at $64,012, with $65k as the current key dividing line. Wash holds a crypto asset portfolio worth over $100 million, covering more than 30 digital assets. Disclosed holdings include dYdX, Lighter, Polychain Capital, Dapper Labs, Solana, and Optimism.
Market impact and logic: Increased difficulty in interpreting Fed policy information will amplify the risk of sharp fluctuations in stock and bond prices. Liquidity-sensitive cryptocurrencies will react to policy changes first, with the pace of change preceding the point when investors fully grasp the complete policy logic.
Short-term bearish logic is clear: Reduced Fed policy guidance will prompt traders to sell risk assets when economic data weakens or liquidity tightens. Liquidity pressure will become the main source of downward pressure on the market. The core long-term bullish logic is not rate cuts, but Wash's push to lower institutional access barriers in the crypto industry, driving digital assets to operate within a regulated framework. His background of holding crypto assets signals that the Fed internally regards digital assets as an investable asset class, supporting the long-term mainstream adoption outlook.
Follow-up focus: Watch whether Bitcoin can hold the $65k median support level to determine whether the current trend is a short-term rebound and repair or the beginning of a new wave of risk asset sell-offs. The market will need to digest dot plot information and the latest economic data almost in real time to confirm capital inflow trends and related signals before making trading decisions.

#非农数据倒计时 30% Probability of Rate Hike in July: Tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls a 'Fuel' or 'Fire Extinguisher'?
The market is pricing in the possibility of a Fed rate hike in Q3, though the probability is low but real.
The June nonfarm payrolls report, released Thursday evening, will be the key variable to validate this expectation.
Nonfarm Payrolls Report Expectations at a Glance
The market generally expects June nonfarm payrolls to add 114k jobs, with average hourly earnings rising 0.3% month-over-month (3.5% year-over-year) and the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%. So far this year, the nonfarm payrolls report has been solid overall — four out of the first five months exceeded expectations, with average monthly job gains of about 82k.
Against this backdrop, traders generally expect this month's data to continue a steady tone: moderate job growth, stable unemployment, and gradual wage increases.
With inflation persisting above the Fed's 2% target, combined with Walsh's hawkish tone at his first FOMC meeting, the market is pricing in the possibility of a Fed rate hike as early as this month. The CME FedWatch tool shows about a 30% probability of a rate hike in July.
Leading Indicators: Pointing to the Upside, but Uncertainty Remains High
This month's nonfarm payrolls forecast faces a unique issue — the ISM Services PMI will be released after the nonfarm payrolls data, so it cannot be included in the forward-looking model. The four leading indicator signals currently available are as follows:
ISM Manufacturing Employment Subindex: Rose from 48.6 to 49.7, approaching the breakeven line, indicating that the contraction in manufacturing employment is narrowing.
ADP Employment Report: Added 98k in June, down from the previous 122k.
Four-week average of initial jobless claims: Rose to 224k, up from 215k in the previous month.
Based on the above data and internal model calculations, leading indicators point to nonfarm payrolls possibly coming in above expectations, with job additions roughly in the range of 125k to 175k. However, it must be emphasized that due to limitations in survey response rates, the forecast uncertainty range is large, and monthly fluctuations are inherently difficult to predict precisely — any forecast (including that of this institution) should not be over-interpreted. Other sub-items such as wage growth and unemployment rate will also affect market reaction.
Dollar Index Technicals: Breakout Confirmed, Data Decides Next Move
From the daily chart, the dollar index has confirmed a medium-term bullish trend, and the current position is also near a 14-month high. The breakout in the technical structure has opened up room for further upside.
If the nonfarm payrolls data exceeds expectations, the market will seriously price in a Q3 rate hike, and the dollar index is likely to extend its rally, with the next target around the May 2025 high of 102.00.
If the employment data is weak, rate hike expectations will be pushed back, and the dollar will come under short-term pressure.
Summary: Data Sets the Tone, Three Scenarios Three Outcomes
The significance of tonight's nonfarm payrolls report goes beyond a single data point — it is the first real-world test of Walsh's "data-driven" decision-making framework. The three scenarios correspond to three market paths:
Strong data (above 175k): The probability of a July rate hike will rise significantly, and the dollar index will target 102.00.
Data in line with expectations (110k-150k): The market maintains current pricing, and the dollar consolidates within the post-breakout range.
Weak data (below 110,000): Rate hike expectations fade, the dollar corrects in the short term, but the medium-term structure remains intact.