DXY & Forex

On April 15, Hong Kong dollar interbank offered rates (HIBOR) fell for most tenors, with the one-month and three-month rates declining, while longer-term rates saw slight increases.

Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen believes the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates this year, despite uncertainty from the Iran war and oil price volatility. She sees a broad supply shock impacting various sectors but suggests stable inflation expectations make rate hikes unlikely.

The minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting show that the federal funds rate remains unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, emphasizing factors such as stability in the labor market, limited impact from AI investment, and still-present inflation pressures. The unanimous approval reflects the stability of monetary policy, and it remains cautious about any further rate cuts; the outlook going forward needs to be determined by observing inflation data.

Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Paul Chan reported strong economic performance driven by exports, services, and goods trade, alongside steady consumption and rising private investment. He emphasized the city's robust stock market and the need for financial stability to enhance competitiveness.

Billionaire Tim Draper predicts that Bitcoin will rise to $250k within 18 months, mainly due to inflation pressure and a weakening U.S. dollar. While his prediction is appealing, it hasn’t been met over the past six years, and his personal holdings may affect the assessment. Market conditions and the impact of regulatory policies on prices must be taken into account.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, USDINR (US Dollar vs Indian Rupee) has dropped by 1% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market

On April 14, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell by 0.25% to 98.124 as the dollar weakened against several major currencies, including the euro, British pound, yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, and Swedish krona.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, USDINR (US Dollar vs Indian Rupee) has surged by 2% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed confidence in declining core inflation despite the Iran war, urging the Federal Reserve to cut rates. Rising consumer prices due to the conflict have impacted President Trump's approval ratings. Trump's Fed chair nominee, Kevin Warsh, faces nomination delays but may soon proceed.

The U.S. Treasury eased sanctions on Venezuela's financial system, allowing access to U.S. dollars and oil revenue, supporting Delcy Rodriguez's government amid public worker protests for better pay. Relations with Venezuela are normalizing post-Maduro's ouster.

The latest U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) shows that in March, the year-over-year increase reached 4%, the largest rise in three years, driven mainly by the Iran war boosting energy costs. The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma: the core PPI is relatively mild, indicating that inflation pressure is coming primarily from the supply side. Market expectations for a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve have decreased, and the reaction in financial markets indicates that expectations for a more restrictive stance in monetary policy have strengthened. The focus going forward will be on the Consumer Price Index and the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent advised the Federal Reserve to observe before cutting rates, expressing confidence in declining core inflation. He mentioned the implementation of a 10% tariff under Section 122, with uncertainty about a potential increase to 15%.

Gate News news: On April 14, the hearing of Fed chair nominee Waller is scheduled for April 21.

Gate News update, according to Gate’s official announcement The Gate TradFi zone has launched multiple CFD trading pairs. The Forex zone has added 17 new trading pairs, including CHFSGD, EURDKK, EURPLN, USDBRL, USDCLP, USDCOP, USDILS, USDKRW, USDPLN, EURCNH, EURHKD, GBPNOK, GBPSEK, NOKSEK, NZDSEK, AUDZAR, and CHFZAR, supporting fixed leverage of 20 to 100x. The Indices zone has launched two trading pairs, ES35 and SA40, both supporting fixed leverage of 100x. The Metals zone has launched five trading pairs: XAGAUD, XAUAUD, XAUEUR, XAUJPY, and XPDUSD, supporting fixed leverage of 20 to 100x. The Commodities zone has launched a GAS gasoline trading pair, supporting fixed leverage of 20x. For all trading pairs, the minimum order quantity is 0.01.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, USDILS (US dollar vs Israeli Shekel) has dropped by 1% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market

Gate News message: According to the official announcement, the Gate TradFi Stock Trading Zone has launched 15 stock CFD pairs for Tencent, Meituan, Xiaomi, Kuaishou, AIA Insurance, Geely Automobile, Zhipu, MINIMAX, Xunce, Lenovo, Kangfang Bio, CITIC Shares, Rongchuang China, China Biopharmaceutical, Anta Sports, all of which support 4x fixed leverage, with a minimum order quantity of 0.1. In addition, the Gate TradFi FX Trading Zone has launched 6 foreign-exchange CFD pairs: EUR/Hungarian Forint, USD/Hungarian Forint, USD/Indonesian Rupiah, USD/Indian Rupee, USD/Thai Baht, and USD/New Taiwan Dollar. All pairs support 20x fixed leverage, with a minimum order quantity of 0.01.

Gate News message, April 14, Citi Group’s strategists raised their rating for the U.S. stock market from "Neutral" to "Buy," aligning with the views of other analysts on Wall Street. Citi said that heightened uncertainty in the war situation has made investors more inclined to choose companies with higher quality and stronger defensiveness. Based on the principles of a "quality/defensive tilt," Citi adjusted its global asset allocation. Meanwhile, Citi downgraded its emerging market stock rating from "Buy" to "Neutral," saying these markets are more vulnerable to energy shocks, and that a stronger U.S. dollar puts additional pressure on them.

Gate News message: On April 14, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the United States should "wait and see" before cutting interest rates.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned in his annual shareholder letter that a war with Iran could trigger persistent oil and commodity price shocks, creating inflation pressure that is stickier than the market expects, and that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain high interest rates for longer. He noted that the war’s economic impact is widespread, including a global restructuring of supply chains and rising energy prices. In addition, Dimon still holds a positive view of the U.S. economy, but warned that the economic shocks from the war could weaken that resilience.

The founder of Muddy Waters, Carson Block, after trying the AI tool Claude, shifted his view of the economic outlook from optimistic to pessimistic. He warned that AI replacing knowledge work will trigger a severe economic crisis, and has already started shorting ETFs in the credit market. He noted that 15% of knowledge work is about to disappear, and predicted it will lead to a contraction in consumption and a systemic crash. His move to restart the short-selling setup has drawn attention in the current market.