Commodities (Crude Oil & Copper) & Macro Outlook

International crude oil futures fell sharply, with WTI down 7.87% to $91.28 and Brent down 4.6% to $94.79 per barrel. Iran is contemplating suspending shipping through the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing negotiations.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed confidence in declining core inflation despite the Iran war, urging the Federal Reserve to cut rates. Rising consumer prices due to the conflict have impacted President Trump's approval ratings. Trump's Fed chair nominee, Kevin Warsh, faces nomination delays but may soon proceed.

The U.S. Treasury eased sanctions on Venezuela's financial system, allowing access to U.S. dollars and oil revenue, supporting Delcy Rodriguez's government amid public worker protests for better pay. Relations with Venezuela are normalizing post-Maduro's ouster.

The EBRD warns that a prolonged Iran war could severely impact Europe's economy, potentially shrinking growth and increasing inflation. Negotiations have stalled, and the bank plans to invest €5 billion to support affected nations while the EU proposes easing state aid rules to address energy costs.

GMX has launched 24/7 gold and silver perpetual markets on Arbitrum, achieving over $10 million in trading volume on day one. Utilizing Chainlink Data Streams for secure pricing, GMX aims to expand into real-world asset derivatives. This move highlights the trend of decentralizing commodity trading.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, COCOA (Cocoa) has surged by 6% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market activity.

The Pakistani government has proposed holding a second round of face-to-face U.S.-Iran negotiations in Islamabad. Currently, both sides still have differences on nuclear issues. U.S. Vice President Vance said there has been progress and emphasized that Iran needs to take the initiative. As the April 21 ceasefire deadline approaches, if there is no new agreement, military action could escalate. The market response has been largely positive, but traders remain cautious.

The latest U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) shows that in March, the year-over-year increase reached 4%, the largest rise in three years, driven mainly by the Iran war boosting energy costs. The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma: the core PPI is relatively mild, indicating that inflation pressure is coming primarily from the supply side. Market expectations for a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve have decreased, and the reaction in financial markets indicates that expectations for a more restrictive stance in monetary policy have strengthened. The focus going forward will be on the Consumer Price Index and the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision.

Donald Trump criticized the UK for not expanding North Sea oil drilling, arguing it worsens Europe's energy crisis. He condemned wind energy projects and highlighted the economic challenges faced by Aberdeen due to decreased drilling activity.

The ongoing US blockade of Iranian ports is redirecting oil tankers towards the Atlantic, significantly disrupting global oil shipping and leading to a decline in freight rates. Experts predict lasting shifts in tanker routes, potentially impacting the global economy.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, XTIUSD (WTI Crude USOIL) has dropped by 4% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market

Gate News message, April 14, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its latest edition of the World Economic Outlook report, lowering its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1%. The report notes that the fighting in the Middle East has significantly affected the current momentum of global economic growth. If the fighting and high oil prices continue for longer, this year global economic growth will fall to 2.5% or even lower.

Gate News update, according to Gate’s official announcement The Gate TradFi zone has launched multiple CFD trading pairs. The Forex zone has added 17 new trading pairs, including CHFSGD, EURDKK, EURPLN, USDBRL, USDCLP, USDCOP, USDILS, USDKRW, USDPLN, EURCNH, EURHKD, GBPNOK, GBPSEK, NOKSEK, NZDSEK, AUDZAR, and CHFZAR, supporting fixed leverage of 20 to 100x. The Indices zone has launched two trading pairs, ES35 and SA40, both supporting fixed leverage of 100x. The Metals zone has launched five trading pairs: XAGAUD, XAUAUD, XAUEUR, XAUJPY, and XPDUSD, supporting fixed leverage of 20 to 100x. The Commodities zone has launched a GAS gasoline trading pair, supporting fixed leverage of 20x. For all trading pairs, the minimum order quantity is 0.01.

Gate News message, April 14, a Nomura economist said that due to the continued rise in oil prices and concerns about the supply of petroleum products, Japan in the future faces "unprecedented risks," and the Bank of Japan is likely to delay interest rate hikes. In remarks on Monday, Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda said he was more concerned than at the news briefing in March about downside risks to the economy that the Middle East conflict could bring. Ueda said that if the conflict continues, it will affect the business activities of Japanese companies through disruptions to the supply chain.

U.S. Vice President Vance accuses Iran of carrying out “economic terrorism,” saying that it is closing the Strait of Hormuz and threatening the global economy, and he supports the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, calling it a reciprocal response.

Saudi Arabia is urgently asking the United States to lift its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to avoid export disruptions from the Strait of Mandeb. Threats from the Houthis have put Saudi Arabia in an energy crunch. If both major straits are blocked at the same time, global oil prices could soar to $160 to $190, triggering a drop in demand and prompting both sides of the Iran-U.S. talks to restart.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned in his annual shareholder letter that a war with Iran could trigger persistent oil and commodity price shocks, creating inflation pressure that is stickier than the market expects, and that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain high interest rates for longer. He noted that the war’s economic impact is widespread, including a global restructuring of supply chains and rising energy prices. In addition, Dimon still holds a positive view of the U.S. economy, but warned that the economic shocks from the war could weaken that resilience.

Gate News message, a trader with address 0x18b0 incurred significant losses through two consecutive trading decisions. The trader sold 499.9 ETH for $1.1M at $2,197 before ETH price increased, resulting in a loss of $82.5K. Subsequently, the trader opened a long position on oil immediately before it

Saudi Arabia is pressuring the United States to lift the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and resume negotiations to prevent possible Iranian retaliation over President Trump’s sanctions, which could affect its oil exports. Saudi Arabia’s daily exports of 7 million barrels are crucial to the Strait of Mandeb, and the situation remains uncertain.

The founder of Muddy Waters, Carson Block, after trying the AI tool Claude, shifted his view of the economic outlook from optimistic to pessimistic. He warned that AI replacing knowledge work will trigger a severe economic crisis, and has already started shorting ETFs in the credit market. He noted that 15% of knowledge work is about to disappear, and predicted it will lead to a contraction in consumption and a systemic crash. His move to restart the short-selling setup has drawn attention in the current market.