Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

NEAR at $5—would you still dare to hold it?
From $6 to $5, everyone online is shouting, “NEAR is done,” but after everyone cut their losses, it rose 45% in 30 days and doubled in a year. Cross-chain swap volume topped $34 billion, the ETF is quietly accumulating, and buybacks are using real money—so is this a normal pullback in an uptrend, or the last chance to escape before the narrative tops out?
First, the surface picture: it’s down, but it hasn’t collapsed.
Down 3% in 24 hours and 5% in 7 days, with a 17% pullback from the October 12 high of $6. Sound scary? But zoom out—and it’s up 45% in 30 days and 132% in a year. Market cap: $6.53 billion; 24-hour trading volume: hundreds of millions of dollars. The chart says: RSI at 53, neutral; price slightly below MA20 but well above MA50/200, still in an ascending channel—all the indicators are saying one thing: this is a pullback, not a reversal.
But wait.
Are you sure $5 will hold? Are you sure the broader market won’t drag it down? Are you sure NEAR’s “real revenue” isn’t just another PowerPoint?
First: NEAR is no longer an “AI concept coin”—it’s making money from cross-chain activity
People used to criticize NEAR: “All it does is tell stories. It’s been hyping the AI narrative for two years, and nothing has materialized.”
What about now?
NEAR Intents’ cumulative cross-chain swap volume has exceeded $34 billion, setting a monthly record of $4.8 billion in September, with $2.28 billion so far in October. Fees are continually generated, and some revenue goes directly toward buying back NEAR on the open market—$1.84 million was bought back in September, and the share of value captured is still rising.
In plain English:
NEAR is now cross-chain infrastructure “with real revenue and a buyback mechanism.” You use it to move assets across chains, it collects fees, then uses those fees to buy its own token.
What does value capture mean? This is it. Not empty promises—real money buying back the token.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan put it plainly: NEAR’s investment case no longer depends entirely on the future AI agent economy. Its existing cross-chain business stands on its own, with AI as an additional option.
Second: The ETF has launched, opening an institutional access channel
On September 29, Bitwise’s spot NEAR ETF (NRR) launched. It saw about $58 million in inflows in its first week and currently holds over 15 million NEAR, worth about $79 million.
Doesn’t sound like much?
But think about it—this is an institutional access channel. Traditional investors used to have to go to exchanges to buy NEAR; now there’s an ETF.
More importantly, there’s a proposal to gradually lower the annual issuance rate from 2.5% to 1.6% over two years. If approved, inflationary pressure would ease considerably.
Buybacks on one side, reduced issuance on the other—the supply side is tightening.
But here’s the painful truth:
Buybacks are still smaller than issuance. The issuance reduction proposal hasn’t been implemented. Supply pressure remains.
That’s why NEAR fell from $6 to $5—the positives are real, but they’re not yet enough for the market to ignore macro conditions.
Third: A technical signal has emerged that demands attention
First, the good:
The monthly chart has broken through nearly four years of descending resistance and completed a retest—this is a macro signal of strengthening momentum. The daily chart remains in an ascending channel, with MA50/200 far below, providing support. $4.76-$4.86 is near-term support and has held up through multiple tests.
Now, the bad:
$5.15-$5.20 is near-term resistance; $5.44-$5.55 is the next hurdle; $6.00 is the make-or-break level. If $4.70 breaks on heavy volume, the next stop is $4.50-$4.60, or even $4.00.
Also, Intents had a vulnerability worth about $3.8 million in early October—although the funds were quickly recovered in full and service was restored, with the issue handled cleanly, it’s a reminder that cross-chain infrastructure carries risks.
In a nutshell:
Near-term, it’s consolidating around $5 after a pullback; on the daily timeframe and above, the bias remains bullish.
Hold above $5.20, and watch $5.50-$6.00; break below $4.70, and watch $4.50 or even $4.00.
The bull-bear showdown—you decide
On one side:
Intents’ cumulative $34 billion in swap volume, real fees + buybacks
Spot ETF launched, institutional access channel open
Expected issuance reduction proposal (2.5% → 1.6%)
Monthly chart breaks through four years of descending resistance, macro momentum strengthening
On the other:
Buybacks are still smaller than issuance, and supply pressure remains
Issuance reduction proposal hasn’t been implemented; it’s only an expectation
The broader market is weak, with BTC hovering around 81k; altcoins will amplify the pullback
Resistance at $5.15-$5.20, and three failed attempts at $6.00
Key levels
Resistance above: $5.15-$5.20 → $5.44-$5.55 → $6.00 (make-or-break for bulls) → $6.50+
Support below: $4.76-$4.86 (near-term) → $4.50-$4.60 → $4.00 (hard floor)
Trading strategies (no fluff)
Short-term traders:
Watch how support reacts in the $4.80-$4.90 range. If volume contracts, price stabilizes, and a bullish candle closes back above $5.00, try a small long position, with a stop-loss below $4.70. First target: $5.15-$5.30; if it breaks above $5.20, add to the position and target $5.50. Chase it at $5 and a pullback to $4.70 will have you sweating. Keep leverage at 3-5x and watch the funding rate.
Swing traders:
Wait for a decisive move above $5.20-$5.30 and a confirmed retest before adding to your position. Target $5.50-$6.00. If $4.70 breaks on heavy volume, reduce your position and wait on the sidelines, with $4.50-$4.60 next. Shorting heavily isn’t recommended against strong fundamentals.
Long-term believers:
Build a position in stages in the $4.50-$4.80 range. Fundamentals are supported by real revenue + ETF + expectations of reduced issuance. Target $6+, with further upside depending on the broader market and the AI narrative. But remember—until the issuance reduction is implemented, don’t treat expectations as fact.
NEAR now looks like INJ in late 2023—
Everyone was saying, “The layer-1 blockchain story is over,” but INJ rose from $2 to $40 on real revenue and an ecosystem boom.
NEAR’s cross-chain revenue + buybacks + ETF are only just starting to be priced in.
The market always rewards those who spot “the shift from story to revenue” early, and punishes those who sell right before the rally begins. #美国9月PPI大超预期 #GateWCTCS9全球交易赛 #Gate两大币种合约成交额跻全球前三 $BTC $ETH $NEAR

ETH at $2,420—can you still hold on?
$320 million in ETF outflows in a week, BlackRock leading the sell-off, and longs just had tens of millions liquidated—but while everyone was shouting “ETH is going to zero,” $2,400 held firm. Is this institutions unloading, or market makers using ETF data to shake out weak hands?
First, the surface picture: money is flowing out, but the price hasn’t collapsed.
ETH is currently at $2,408–$2,420, down 0.6%–1% over 24 hours, sliding from $2,700–$2,800 in early October. ETFs saw net outflows of $320 million over the past week, including $69.7 million in a single day on October 16, with BlackRock’s ETHA accounting for the bulk. BTC is moving sideways at $81,500–$82,000, and overall risk appetite is weak. The chart tells you this: the price has fallen below the 7-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages; RSI is weak at 37–38; MACD is below the zero line—all the indicators are saying one thing: short-term bearish, but $2,400 hasn’t broken.
But wait.
Are you sure ETF outflows mean “institutions are fleeing,” rather than “a shakeout through rotation”? Are you sure $2,400 will hold? Are you sure the Glamsterdam upgrade won’t be the next catalyst?
First: ETFs are selling, but someone is buying
Net outflows of $320 million over the past week sound scary. But look at the market—ETH hasn’t collapsed, and $2,400 has held through repeated tests.
BTC ETFs went through the same script in 2024. Outflows for weeks, market panic, and then what? Inflows returned, and the price hit new highs.
More importantly, exchange reserves have been declining over the long term, while self-custody and staking have locked up a large share of the circulating supply. Charles Schwab is expanding access to ETH trading, Interactive Brokers has launched staking services, and KR1 plans to stake up to 6,000 ETH—traditional finance is quietly positioning itself while retail investors panic and sell at a loss.
ETF outflows are the news; institutional accumulation is the reality.
Second: The Glamsterdam upgrade gets its big test on October 26
On October 26, the Glamsterdam upgrade will be activated on the Hoodi testnet. The target is 200M gas, and it involves proposer-builder separation—in plain English: faster, cheaper, and a better experience for validators.
This is the most important test before mainnet. If it goes smoothly, the narrative catches fire; if something goes wrong, ETH faces short-term pressure.
But here’s the painful truth—
ETH’s problem right now isn’t technology; it’s capital. Even the best upgrade won’t stop the price from grinding if ETF inflows don’t return. Conversely, if capital flows back and the upgrade goes live, $2,400 will be the floor.
Technical factors determine the downside; capital flows determine the upside. The downside has a floor now; the upside is waiting for a tailwind.
Third: A technical signal you can’t afford to ignore
First, the good news:
The 200-day moving average is at $2,148–$2,150, far below, and the long-term trend remains intact. $2,400 is a daily pivot and strong support that has held through multiple tests; holding it would signal the pullback is over. RSI is weak at 37–38 but not extremely oversold, leaving room for a rebound.
Now, the bad news:
The moving averages are clustered at $2,550–$2,560, with the price pinned below them. $2,480–$2,500 is immediate resistance, while $2,550–$2,600 is a dense moving-average zone. If $2,400 breaks, the next stop is $2,350–$2,370; below that, it’s $2,318–$2,335.
In one sentence:
$2,400 is the dividing line between bulls and bears.
Hold it, and watch $2,500–$2,600; lose it, and watch $2,300 or even lower.
The bulls and bears face off—judge for yourself
On one side:
Glamsterdam upgrade activates on the testnet on October 26
Charles Schwab, Interactive Brokers, and KR1 continue to build positions
Exchange reserves declining over the long term, with supply locked in staking
The 200-day moving average is far below; the long-term trend remains intact
$2,400 has held through multiple tests
On the other side:
$320 million in ETF outflows in a week, led by BlackRock
Price has fallen below all short-term moving averages
RSI is weak, and MACD is below the zero line
The Fed is hawkish, with another rate hike possible in October
Resistance at $2,480–$2,500 overhead
Resistance above: $2,422–$2,450 → $2,480–$2,500 → $2,550–$2,600
Support below: $2,400 (the line between life and death) → $2,350–$2,370 → $2,318–$2,335 → $2,148–$2,150 (200-day moving average)
Trading strategies
For short-term traders:
If $2,400–$2,420 stabilizes (with lower wicks and supporting volume), try a small long position, with a stop-loss below $2,350. Take half off at the first target of $2,450–$2,500; if it breaks above $2,500, add to the position and target $2,550–$2,600. Don’t chase—if you buy at $2,450, a pullback to $2,400 will hurt.
For swing traders:
Wait for a daily close holding above $2,500 before considering adding, with a target of $2,550–$2,600. If $2,400 breaks on heavy volume, switch to defense and watch $2,350–$2,318.
For long-term believers:
Dollar-cost average in the $2,350–$2,400 range. ETH remains the undisputed leader in DeFi/L2, and staking lockups plus institutional access are structural tailwinds. The long-term target is the previous high of $4,946, but don’t go all in—this is a grind, not a bull market.
ETH right now is just like BTC in 2024—
ETF outflows, a chorus of criticism, and everyone saying, “This time is different.”
And then?
By the day outflows ended, the price had already gone up.
The scary thing isn’t the drop; it’s not knowing why you’re holding. #美国9月PPI大超预期 #GateWCTCS9全球交易赛 #Gate两大币种合约成交额跻全球前三 $BTC $ETH $SOL

In 2013, someone bought 248.8 $BTC for just $88,000.
He survived Mt. Gox, China’s crypto ban, and the FTX collapse.
Nearly 13 years later, he finally moved his coins.
Value today: $20.2 million.
That’s a $20.1M profit from simply holding Bitcoin.
Sometimes, the hardest part of investing isn’t buying the dip.
It’s having the conviction to never sell.
Would you have held through it all ?👇

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Stocks bought at the peak of the 2000 bubble were followed by the worst decade for returns in the U.S. stock market in 100 years. From 2000 to 2009, the S&P 500’s annualized total return was about -0.95%.
But buying after the bubble burst produced the highest returns.
So what does this tell us? It tells us that crises are also opportunities. What matters is having money to invest regularly, lowering your cost basis, and ultimately earning the highest returns!
When the market drops sharply, the number of shares you can buy doubles. That’s why you need emergency savings and the ability to keep investing, so you have the opportunity to build twice the wealth when prices are discounted.

This is what real conviction looks like.
A whale reportedly accumulated 257,928 hyperliquid:native at just $3.50, held for nearly two years, and walked away with an estimated $21 million in profits.
No chasing every pump. Just conviction, patience, and a massive payoff.
Sometimes, the biggest gains come from knowing when to hold.

Would you still hold BTC at $81,700?
Down 35% from its all-time high of $126,000, ETFs seeing consecutive net outflows, everyone online shouting “the bull market is over”—but the price just won’t break below $80,000, and longs keep getting liquidated over and over. Is this the final shakeout at the bull-bear dividing line, or are market makers digging you a grave above $80,000?
First, the surface picture: bad news is everywhere, but the price isn’t collapsing.
BTC is now at $81,700. Weekend liquidity is thin, and it’s stuck in a narrow range of $80,800–$82,600. It’s down a full 35% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000. ETFs saw net outflows overall in October, CPI at 3.7% is running hot, oil is near a high of $99, and the 10-year Treasury yield is at 5%—the macro backdrop is all headwinds.
But look at the chart: no collapse. $80,000 is holding firm, and the Fear Index is neutral at 53.
The candlesticks tell you: the 50-day moving average at $80,500–$80,800 is a solid floor, while the 20-day moving average at $82,600 is the ceiling. RSI is neutral at 47, and MACD is negative but momentum is slowing. Every indicator is saying one thing: no direction has been chosen; the market is waiting for the FOMC verdict.
First: ETFs are fleeing, but why can’t they break through $80,000?
October ETF net outflows were in the hundreds of millions of dollars, including $82 million on October 16 alone and an even larger outflow on October 14. Institutional demand is weak in the short term—that’s a fact.
But here’s the painful truth—
Cumulative ETF inflows remain high. The ones leaving are short-term arbitrage traders; long-term institutions haven’t budged. On-chain data: short-term holders’ cost basis is around $74,000, and MVRV hasn’t entered the overheated zone. Corporate holdings and miner hashrate remain high.
Those who were going to flee have already fled; those who haven’t are waiting.
The market’s most fearful moments are often not the top; when everyone is bearish, it’s often an opportunity.
Second: crowded longs—that’s the most dangerous signal
The funding rate is 0.006%/8h, or 6–7% annualized, above the recent average. Perpetual-futures longs are too crowded.
What does this mean?
As soon as the price dips, cascading liquidations can reinforce themselves. Long stop-loss orders around $80,000 are juicy targets for market makers.
Bull markets die at the hands of longs; bear markets die at the hands of dip-buyers. With crowded longs and macro headwinds, who else would market makers shake out?
But think about it the other way—if $80,000 really breaks, once the longs have been liquidated, could that actually be a golden buying opportunity?
Third: the FOMC is the real judge this week
FOMC on October 27–28. The market is pricing in a pause as the most likely outcome, but a rate hike in December is still possible. Rates were already raised by 25 bp in September to 3.75–4.00%.
CPI at 3.7% is running hot, oil is at $99, and inflation remains sticky. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 5%, and real interest rates are weighing on risk assets.
FOMC turns dovish → risk assets take off, BTC shoots straight past $85,000
FOMC turns hawkish → $80,000 breaks, with $78,000 or even $75,000 in sight
At $81,700, it’s like waiting for the cards to be dealt at the betting table.
Are you betting high or low?
The bulls and bears face off—you decide
On one side:
$80,000 holding firm, strong support from on-chain cost basis
Fear Index at a neutral 53, nowhere near extreme levels
Corporate holdings and miner hashrate are high; long-term fundamentals haven’t changed
Once the longs are liquidated, the market may actually bottom
On the other side:
ETFs continue to see outflows; institutions aren’t buying in the short term
Funding rates are high, and crowded longs are vulnerable to liquidation
Treasuries at 5%; macro liquidity isn’t easing
Down 35% from ATH, the trend still leans bearish
Key levels
Resistance above: $82,100–$82,600 (20-day moving average, make-or-break level) → $84,350–$85,000 → $87,000
Support below: $80,500–$80,800 (50-day moving average, solid floor) → $79,800 → $78,000
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Make small spot buys around $80,500–$80,800, with a stop-loss below $79,800. Take half off first at $82,600–$83,000; if $82,600 breaks on strong volume, chase the move toward $85,000. Don’t chase at the $81,700 midpoint—there’s a blade on either side.
If a rebound stalls at $82,500–$82,600, consider a small short position, with a stop-loss at $83,000 and a target of a retest of $80,800. But don’t get greedy; this is range-bound trading, not a one-way move.
Swing traders:
Wait for the FOMC decision and a daily close holding above $82,600 before adding to your position. If $80,500 breaks on strong volume, stay on the sidelines decisively and wait to reconsider around $78,000.
Long-term believers:
Dollar-cost average in batches below $80,500. The long-term BTC thesis hasn’t changed—halving cycles, institutional adoption, digital gold. But don’t go all in; keep plenty of cash on hand ahead of the FOMC.
BTC right now is just like BTC in October 2023—
Everyone was saying “the bear market isn’t over,” then after the ETF approval it went straight from $30,000 to $70,000.
Now it’s down 35%, and everyone is saying “the bull market is over” again.
Markets always bottom in despair, rise amid doubt, and peak in euphoria.#美国9月PPI大超预期 #GateWCTCS9全球交易赛 $BTC #Gate两大币种合约成交额跻全球前三 $ETH $SOL

Imagine holding Bitcoin for nearly 13 years without selling a single coin.
Someone bought 248.8 $BTC in 2013 for just $88K and survived Mt. Gox, the China ban, and the FTX collapse without giving up.
Today, that stash is worth $20.2 MILLION.
$20.1M in profit. All from HODLing.
Sometimes, the biggest gains come from having the patience to do nothing.

Bitcoin currently faces two major problems. The first: roughly 1–1.1 million BTC associated with Satoshi Nakamoto. Most of these coins are in early P2PK addresses, where the public keys were exposed directly on-chain from the outset. Once a sufficiently powerful quantum computer exists, Shor’s algorithm could theoretically be used to derive the private keys from the public keys. In total, approximately 6.4–7.1 million BTC have exposed public keys (about 30–35% of the supply), including coins in reused addresses and Taproot addresses.

Imagine holding Bitcoin for nearly 13 years without selling a single coin.
Someone bought 248.8 $BTC in 2013 for just $88K and survived Mt. Gox, the China ban, and the FTX collapse without giving up.
Today, that stash is worth $20.2 MILLION.
$20.1M in profit. All from HODLing.
Sometimes, the biggest gains come from having the patience to do nothing.

A leveraged barbell strategy, and it’s still spot. 55% of
$BTC , 5 points $BNB , and $CRCL $COIN are all bull-market amplifiers. There’s no major issue with the overall direction. If purchased through a broker, you also don’t have to worry about an exchange going under. I think it’s excellent—a strategy that lets young people be aggressive while remaining relatively stable. It’s 10k times stronger than betting on futures and memes, and compared with an unleveraged barbell strategy, its returns are more likely to deliver an explosive breakout in a bull market. The pons position ratio is also well controlled. Of course, drawdowns will hit you harder as well. Note that when you eventually exit, you should do so earlier than with crypto. Crypto and crypto stocks are both leading liquidity indicators. Overall, I’d rate this strategy at least 99/100
If the BTC allocation were a bit higher, it might be even better. Of course, this depends on your stage of life, so you don’t need to follow my advice completely when rebalancing. Thinking back to when my total position was 24, I put almost most of it into altcoins—that was in 2016–2017, when I simply encountered favorable conditions. Now, over the long term, it is much harder for altcoins to outperform BTC, and a rate-hike bull market is unfavorable for altcoins. Just look at how, since the Woshi rate hikes began, the Russell 2000 in the US stock market has basically been suppressed, with capital flowing out. You can think of these as high-quality altcoins in the US stock market. However, the only small altcoin in your holdings is robinhood:0x39dbed3a2bd333467115de45665cc57f813c4571, which is a bull-market sentiment indicator as well as an amplifier
If you can hold this portfolio, a very conservative estimate is that you can at least achieve 2x returns, turning 24 into 50. At the high end, 3–5x returns—80–100—should be possible. After the next bull market, you could reach 300–500, and in the following cycle, enter A8
That’s all I’ll say. Wishing you a turnaround and great fortune

Gm Everyone 🙋🏻‍♂️
I know you want to wake up like this. #Bitcoin

$ARB USDT — 4H TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
ARB is approaching the apex of a symmetrical triangle, with price currently trading near $0.1867. The next move could determine the short-term trend.
Entry: $0.1900 – $0.1930 (after breakout confirmation)
TP1: $0.2000
TP2: $0.2100
TP3: $0.2250
Stop Loss: $0.1800
Key Insight: A strong 4H candle close above the descending resistance, supported by rising volume, could confirm a bullish breakout. Failure to break out may lead to another retest of triangle support.
Trade setup is based on the provided chart; confirm the breakout before entry.
#ARB #Arbitrum #CryptoTrading #TechnicalAnalysis

$BTC and $ETH are dumping again.
$120 million worth of longs liquidated in the past 60 minutes.

AVA has broken out of its range, and the daily chart is looking strong.
$AVA ‌ is trading near $0.3828 after climbing from the $0.20 area and reaching $0.4065. Buyers have pushed price into a new local high, while the daily Supertrend remains bullish at $0.2060.
Key levels:
Support: $0.350–$0.362
Stronger support: $0.305
Resistance: $0.4065
Targets: $0.420 → $0.450
A clean break above $0.4065 could extend the move. After a 28% daily surge, though, a retest would be healthy. The order book also shows heavier sell-side depth, so confirmation matters.
The momentum is impressive. Now AVA needs to turn this breakout into lasting support.
$TSLA ‌#GateBTCAndETHFuturesVolumeRanksTop3 #NEARJumpsNearly10%

Just got back from Gai’s concert. Two hours of the two-and-a-half-hour show were spent dancing 💃 The live show was so worth it—such incredible energy. Next time I’m in Changsha or Chongqing, I’ll check out an even better show.

$ZEC simply two levels to trade right now.
$ZEC will dump below $1K before reaching $2K.
Don’t trust small pumps on ZEC. Bottom is still not in. We will see ZEC around $800 very soon.
IYKYK.