Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

$ZEC simply two levels to trade right now.
$ZEC will dump below $1K before reaching $2K.
Don’t trust small pumps on ZEC. Bottom is still not in. We will see ZEC around $800 very soon.
IYKYK.

The odds of a 25 bps Fed rate hike in October have dropped to a new monthly low of just 14%.
Markets are increasingly pricing in no rate hike, which could be a positive signal for risk assets like Bitcoin and crypto.
All eyes on the Fed’s October 28 decision.

From hesitating for three days over 150 yuan to hesitating for 11 seconds over 336 million, it took fifteen years.
If one day you no longer had to worry about money, what is the one thing you’ve always wanted to buy but could never bring yourself to?

Would you dare to buy the dip on UNI at $7.2 before it launches on CME?
CME launches in two days, yet UNI has plunged from 10.9 to 7.2, while everyone is shouting, “The good news is out, it’s going to moon”—but exchange inflows are through the roof. Is this institutions accumulating, or are market manipulators using CME as an excuse to dump?
First, the surface picture: good news is just around the corner, yet the price has already folded.
On September 22, CME announced it would launch UNI futures, and UNI rallied from its lows to 10.9. Then what? In less than a month, it pulled back over 30%, and now it’s at 7.2. It’s down 2.5%-3.3% in 24 hours, with a market cap of $4.5 billion and 625 million tokens in circulation. The candlestick chart tells you: price is below the short-term moving averages, RSI at 43-45 is neutral to weak, MACD is bearish, 7.05-7.10 is immediate support, and 6.75-7.00 is an important demand zone—all the indicators are saying one thing: short-term weakness; wait until CME launches.
But hold on.
Are you sure CME is launching to carry you to profits? Are you sure “buy the rumor, sell the fact” won’t apply this time?
First: CME is an institutional channel, not Santa Claus
CME will launch UNI futures on October 19, with standard contracts of 10k UNI, Micro contracts of 1,000 UNI, and cash settlement. This is the first time CME has offered futures on a major DeFi governance token. It’s certainly positive for the long term—institutions can go long, hedge, and allocate.
But don’t forget: futures are a two-way tool. Institutions can go long, but they can also short.
What’s even more painful is that UNI surged to 10.9 as soon as the news broke on September 22. Now it’s at 7.2. Who’s selling? Exchange inflows are elevated for the year, with the Z-score at one point going through the roof—the tokens are being distributed, not accumulated.
Before the good news lands, smart money is already running; on the day it lands, retail investors are only just opening their trading apps.
That’s “buy the rumor, sell the fact.” It’s not that UNI is no good—it’s that you keep treating “news announced” as “the rally begins.”
Second: The fee switch is genuinely positive, but don’t confuse the long term with the short term
UNI is no longer a pure governance token. The fee switch has been activated, with a portion of fees used for buybacks and burns, and the one-time burn of 100 million tokens is complete. Unichain is also migrating to OP Enterprise, with infrastructure continuing to improve. Protocol revenue hit a record of about $14.8 million in September, TVL is around $3.9-4 billion, and Uniswap remains the largest spot DEX.
Are the fundamentals solid? Yes.
But here’s the painful part: the ongoing burn is not large and depends on trading volume. The fee switch is a long-term value-capture mechanism, not fuel to pump the price tomorrow. If you trade short-term on a long-term narrative and lose money, don’t blame the project.
UNI’s fundamentals are real, but your position may not be able to withstand “the dump when the good news lands.”
Third: The technical picture boils down to one thing—7.0 is life or death; 7.8 is the gateway
After pulling back 30% from 10.9, it’s now at 7.2 in a key consolidation zone.
Immediate support: 7.05-7.10
Major support: 6.75-7.00 (potential double-bottom zone, tested multiple times)
Further down: around 6.5
Immediate resistance: 7.45-7.50 → 7.60-7.80 → 8.0+
Previous high zone: 10-11
The short-term outlook is range-bound to weak, with no significant increase in volume. Volatility will pick up before and after CME launches: if the price stabilizes after launch and volume and OI are supportive, it could reach 7.8-8.5; if weakness continues, 6.75-7.0 will need to be tested again.
Bulls and bears face off—you decide
On one side:
CME launches on October 19, opening up an institutional channel
Fee switch + buybacks and burns shift UNI from a governance token toward value capture
TVL around $4 billion, largest spot DEX, solid fundamentals
6.75-7.0 has been tested several times without breaking, forming a potential double bottom
On the other side:
Over 30% pullback from 10.9, with clear “sell the fact” pressure
Elevated exchange inflows, with tokens being distributed
Macro conditions are cautious, BTC consolidating at highs around 81k, and altcoins are more vulnerable to pressure
Ongoing burns are modest, and short-term valuation still relies on trading volume
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Don’t aggressively chase longs around 7.2. If it retests 7.05-7.10 and holds, with a bullish candle on increased volume, try a small long position and set a stop-loss below 6.9. If it breaks below 7.0, wait for the double-bottom setup around 6.75-6.80 before reconsidering, with a stop-loss below 6.6. Reduce positions if a rebound meets resistance at 7.45-7.60; turn bullish only after a breakout above and hold at 7.80. Pay close attention to futures volume, OI, and funding rates before and after CME launches—if the data doesn’t support it, don’t force a trade.
Swing traders:
Wait for direction to be confirmed after CME launches. If 6.8-7.0 holds and BTC cooperates, consider a medium-term position, targeting 7.8-8.5. The previous high of 10-11 is a long-term narrative, not a short-term target.
Long-term believers:
You can dollar-cost average in batches in the 6.8-7.0 range, but keep your position size under control. UNI is a DeFi blue chip, not a meme coin—don’t expect it to double in a day. The fee switch and institutional channel are long-term theses; only hold if you can stomach the volatility.
UNI right now is like the eve of BTC futures launching on CME in 2021—
The news breaks and it rallies, then it dumps before the launch; everyone thinks “institutions are coming, it’s going to moon,” but first there’s another shakeout.
CME isn’t here to hand you a cash bonus; it’s just putting a knife in institutions’ hands—they can go long or short.
On October 19, you’ll find out—
Either it’s the start of UNI’s next rally, or the last chance to exit with dignity.#美国9月PPI大超预期 #GateWCTCS9全球交易赛 #Gate两大币种合约成交额跻全球前三 $BTC $ETH $UNI

Bullish on AI but bearish on the Nasdaq: What investment signals did Justin Sun reveal in his latest interview after selling 90% of his Ethereum?
1. The first half of the AI boom is about selling picks and shovels; the second is about making money from applications
What’s generating the most excitement in AI right now? Nvidia, chips, memory, optical modules, and data centers. Everyone is rushing to buy equipment and build computing capacity. But the application layer will matter more in the future: Can AI truly become part of ordinary people’s lives and work and solve real-world problems?
2. AI health management could be the next big opportunity
In the future, getting medical care may no longer mean heading straight to the hospital whenever something feels wrong. Instead, devices could first collect health data for AI to analyze and use to provide personalized recommendations, with a doctor then offering professional advice.
3. AI hardware prices won’t necessarily keep rising; there could even be a short-term oversupply
He is bullish on AI in the long term, but that doesn’t mean he thinks every AI stock is cheap right now. Huge amounts of capital are concentrated in a handful of AI leaders. Chip, memory, optical module, and data center capacity is all expanding, so an oversupply can’t be ruled out.
4. AI investing could shift from crowded trades to divergence among applications
A lot of capital is currently chasing a handful of AI leaders, with investors buying the same few names over and over. But as AI technology matures, the market will eventually have to answer one question: Which companies can actually turn AI into revenue and profits? He expects divergence in the market to gradually emerge around 2027.
5. U.S. stocks and AI could be getting too crowded in the short term; even long-term bulls need to know when to trim their positions
He is slightly bearish on the Nasdaq and the broader AI sector, but he hasn’t liquidated his holdings or shorted the market. His concern is that everyone is crowded onto the same boat. No matter how big the boat is, it can’t withstand everyone rushing in the same direction at once.
6. Bitcoin is a core holding, while Ethereum is an aggressive position; investing isn’t just about holding on no matter what
He sees Bitcoin and Ethereum as serving different roles. Bitcoin is more like a long-term core holding. As long as his view of Bitcoin hasn’t fundamentally changed, he won’t make major cuts to his position. Ethereum, by contrast, is more of an aggressive position that needs to be adjusted flexibly based on market structure, price trends, and capital flows. He once sold 90% of his Ethereum at 3600–4000, hasn’t bought it back since, and shifted his investment into U.S. stocks.
7. RWA could be a major opportunity in the next phase of blockchain
In the future, blockchains could support more real-world assets, such as stocks and bonds. The core idea behind RWA is to bring real-world assets on-chain through compliant tokenization structures, making it easier for users to access and trade them on-chain.
8. For ordinary people looking to take part in the golden age of AI, don’t focus only on the hottest stocks; think about where the money will ultimately come from
What ordinary people really need to do is understand how a technology creates value, who is willing to pay for it, and whether its current price already assumes too much future growth. The golden age of AI may indeed be underway, but the opportunities to make money won’t be shared equally among everyone involved.
When everyone is chasing AI, are you paying for real profits in the future, or for someone else’s story?

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Key Bitcoin Levels to Watch:
$78,000
$74,000
$62,000
If we drop to here (no guarantees), these are good levels to buy the dip!
Save them. 🤝

Spot trading is one of the simplest ways to understand crypto trading.
When you buy Bitcoin or another cryptocurrency on the spot market, you own the asset you purchase. You can hold it, sell it later, or transfer it to a compatible wallet.
$RHEA ‌

$SNDK ‌🚨 $SNDK DOWN 20% FROM ITS RECENT HIGH?
SanDisk is facing strong selling pressure, with $SNDK trading around $1,298 after dropping from the $1,620 area.
The price is now hovering near $1,280 support. Will buyers step in here, or is another leg down coming?
Watching the next move closely.

ASIA IS BUYING, EUROPE IS SELLING $BTC
Bitcoin flows are telling an interesting story this week.
Asia: Strong buying pressure
Europe: Selling pressure
US: Mostly flat
Asia is stepping in while Europe takes profits. The big question is whether buyers can keep this momentum going.
All eyes on $BTC ‌

Would you still hold ZEC at $1,165?
It has fallen from 1,650 to 1,165, shedding 30% in a month. ETFs have seen consecutive net outflows, and miners are borrowing coins to dump—but just as everyone is saying the “privacy narrative is dead,” the NU7 upgrade is set to launch on mainnet on November 5, cutting block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds. Is this a shakeout by market manipulators using bad news as cover, or the privacy coin’s last chance to escape?
First, the surface picture: bad news is piling up, and the price is stuck halfway down.
ZEC is currently around $1,165. After falling from September’s high of $1,650-$1,700, it has been trading in a wide range of $1,070-$1,350 on the daily chart. RSI at 45-55 is neutral to weak, while MACD is flattening or even showing a death cross, and short-term moving averages are overhead. TradingView’s daily signal is bearish, and a potential head-and-shoulders pattern is faintly visible on the 4H chart. The 24-hour funding rate is slightly positive, with long liquidations skewed higher—all the indicators are saying one thing: short-term momentum is weak, so don’t rush to buy the dip.
But wait.
You only see ETF outflows, miners selling coins, and the price down 30%.
Do you see the 200-day moving average at $650?
First: The NU7 upgrade isn’t a patch job; it’s a new engine
The testnet was activated on October 4. The mainnet activation height will be decided on October 20, with a target launch date of November 5.
Block time cut from 75 seconds to 25 seconds—3x faster, taking payments and the L2 experience to a whole new level
Some fees go into a reserve (Network Sustainability Mechanism)—the network sustains itself instead of relying solely on inflation
Legacy Sprout transactions disabled—clearing out historical baggage and upgrading security
This isn’t a “wishful roadmap”; it’s already running on the testnet.
More importantly, the shielded pool’s share of supply has risen to 29%, and real-world privacy usage is growing. You say privacy coins have no demand, but on-chain data is proving you wrong.
Second: ETFs are seeing outflows and miners are selling coins—but do you know what they’re selling for?
Grayscale’s ZCSH launched in late August, with AUM briefly exceeding $1 billion. It saw sustained net outflows in October, reaching the millions per day.
As for miners, Fortitude and others have reportedly borrowed coins and sold them to expand their mining operations.
Sounds scary?
But look at the price—it rebounded from a low of 1,112 to 1,349, then fell back to 1,165. It didn’t collapse.
How many times has ZEC seen this same script?
Before the Ironwood upgrade, before the ETF launch, with every bout of FUD—the price has bounced back after the bad news was fully priced in.
Miners selling coins to expand isn’t bearish; they’re betting they can expand while you’re too scared to buy.
Third: The technical picture gives you two paths
The bad:
1,185-1,200 is a liquidation cluster and short-term resistance; price has failed to break through three times
Break below 1,130, and the next stop is 1,100; below that, watch 1,000-1,050
If the 4H head-and-shoulders pattern plays out, the pullback target is 900-950
The good:
The 200-day moving average is around 650-670, well below the price; the broader uptrend remains intact
1,130-1,100 is strong support that has been tested repeatedly recently—not made of paper
NU7 mainnet on November 5, with the decision window on October 20—the catalyst is right around the corner
In a nutshell: short-term trading is range-bound to bearish; for a major move, wait for NU7 to go live and ETF inflows to return.
Bulls versus bears—you decide
On one side:
NU7 upgrade launching on mainnet November 5, 25-second blocks, fees going into the reserve
Shielded pool share at 29%, with real privacy usage growing
200-day moving average at 650, broader uptrend intact
Top 10 by market cap, with sentiment supported by the Winklevoss ETF application and Zcon7’s 10th anniversary
Strong support at 1,130-1,100, tested repeatedly and holding
On the other:
Grayscale ETF seeing sustained net outflows in October
Short-term selling pressure from miners borrowing coins
Rejected three times at 1,185-1,200, with the risk of a 4H head-and-shoulders pattern
BTC facing resistance at 81,500, 10-year yield at 5%, tight macro conditions
Arkham questions whether a large volume of transactions is actually private, exposing cracks in the narrative
Key levels
Resistance above: 1,185-1,200 (a make-or-break level for bulls) → 1,230-1,288 → 1,350 → 1,400-1,650
Support below: 1,130-1,100 (rock bottom) → 1,000-1,050 → 900-950
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Test a long position with a small allocation at 1,130-1,100; exit if it breaks below 1,100 or 1,070. Take half off at the first target of 1,185-1,200; if it breaks above 1,200, add and target 1,230. Don’t chase at 1,165—you won’t be able to stomach a pullback to 1,100. Bears can wait for a rejection at 1,185-1,200 before trying a small short, with a stop above 1,220.
Swing and mid-term traders:
Wait for the October 20 NU7 decision window. If the upgrade goes smoothly and the price holds above 1,288-1,350, target 1,400-1,650 for a mid-term position. If ETF outflows continue and the price breaks below 1,130, wait for 1,000-1,050 before considering adding. Don’t go in heavy before NU7 goes live, and don’t chase after it does.
Long-term believers:
ZEC is a leader in the privacy sector, zk-SNARKs technology is mature, its supply is capped at 21 million, and its quantum-resistant roadmap is underway. Dollar-cost average in batches in the 1,000-1,100 range and hold until NU7 goes live and ETF inflows return. But remember: regulatory risk for privacy coins never goes away, so keep your position below 10% of your total capital.
ZEC right now is like SOL in 2024—
Everyone said “public blockchains are dead” and “FTX is going to zero.” And what happened?
SOL went from $8 to $200. ZEC rebounded from 1,112 to 1,349, and NU7 hasn’t even gone live yet.
The privacy coin narrative has never been built on ETFs; it’s built on “you don’t want to be seen.”
On the day NU7 launches on mainnet, November 5, you’ll see—
Either ZEC’s new engine fires up, or it’s your last chance to get out.#美国9月PPI大超预期 #GateWCTCS9全球交易赛 #Gate两大币种合约成交额跻全球前三 ￥$BTC $ETH $ZEC

BTC (1H) Bitcoin is consolidating near $81.5K while holding its ascending trendline support.
A bounce could target $81.8K–$82.2K, while losing $81K risks another move toward $80.6K.

ETH at $2,430—have you cut your losses?
ETF outflows continue, the Fed raises rates by 25 basis points, CPI at 3.7% comes in above expectations, and everyone online is calling ETH useless—but it just won’t break below $2,400. Is this the last chance to get out, or the darkest night before dawn?
First, the surface picture: bad news is piling up, but the price is holding.
ETH is currently trading around $2,430, with a 24-hour range of $2,390-$2,490. It has pulled back 13% from its late-September high of $2,800, but has already rebounded from the recent low of $2,320-$2,350. BTC is also under pressure around $81,500. The charts tell you this: daily RSI is 40, neutral to weak; MACD is bearish; price is below the short-term moving averages but above the long-term ones—a pullback within a larger uptrend, with the direction still undecided.
But hold on.
Are you sure this drop means “ETH is finished,” rather than “macro is hammering the market”?
First: ETFs are exiting, but who’s buying?
Since October, U.S. spot ETH ETFs have seen continued net outflows, led by BlackRock’s ETHA, with institutional buying temporarily absent.
Sounds scary?
But have you noticed—if ETF outflows are so heavy, why hasn’t ETH collapsed?
The answer is on-chain: the staking ratio has risen to 35%-36%, with around 43.7 million ETH locked in staking contracts. With so much supply locked up, selling pressure naturally eases.
ETFs are exiting; staking is locking up ETH. Which do you think is happening faster?
What stings even more: ETF outflows are “short-term capital,” while staking lockups represent “long-term conviction.” Short-term capital has left, while long-term holders’ share has actually become more concentrated.
What’s a shakeout? This is it.
Second: The Glamsterdam upgrade has quietly begun
On October 6, the Glamsterdam upgrade was activated on the Sepolia testnet. What’s the goal?
Raise the gas limit from its current mainnet level to 200 million (boosting L1 throughput)
ePBS (proposer-builder separation)—fairer MEV distribution
Block-level access lists—more efficient execution layer
In plain English: ETH’s L1 is getting faster, cheaper, and fairer. Mainnet target: Q4 2026.
But what’s the market doing?
Watching CPI and ETF outflows and cursing.
Retail traders stare at the charts and call ETH garbage, while developers work on the code to make ETH stronger. That’s the difference.
Third: The technicals tell you $2,400 is the litmus test
Support: $2,400 (psychological level + demand zone) → $2,380/$2,350 → $2,300-$2,320 (strong support)
Resistance: $2,480-$2,500 (near-term) → $2,500-$2,550 (make-or-break zone) → $2,600 → $2,700+
Daily RSI is 40, weak but not oversold, leaving room for a rebound. MACD is bearish, but a demand zone has formed around $2,400. Volume is shrinking—the sellers are running out of steam.
But don’t forget:
ETH has already run into the $2,500-$2,550 range more than once. On the fourth try, will it break through or get knocked back?
Bulls versus bears—see for yourself
On one side:
Glamsterdam upgrade activated on the testnet, confirming L1 scaling
43.7 million ETH locked in staking, steadily tightening circulating supply
The $2,400 demand zone has held through multiple tests, and selling pressure is drying up
The long-term uptrend remains intact, with the broader trend still channeling upward
On the other side:
CPI at 3.7% comes in above expectations, the Fed raises rates by 25bp, interest rates at 3.75%-4.00%
10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 5.3%, sending the discount rate for risk assets soaring
ETH ETFs see continued net outflows, led by BlackRock
Three failed attempts to break through $2,500-$2,550, creating enormous psychological pressure
Trading strategy
Bullish approach:
If $2,400 holds and price reclaims $2,480-$2,500 on strong volume, try a small long position, with a stop below $2,380. Targets: $2,550-$2,600; add to the position if it holds above $2,500. Don’t chase at $2,430—a pullback to $2,380 after you buy could be too much to handle.
Bearish approach:
If a rebound to $2,500-$2,550 meets resistance and turns back down (especially on a high-volume bearish candle), try a small short position, with a stop above $2,580-$2,600 and a target of a retest of $2,400. The bearish macro outlook and ETF outflows support this thesis.
Range traders:
Sell high and buy low within $2,400-$2,500. Don’t get greedy; accept it if your stop gets hit.
ETH right now is like BTC in March 2020—
Everyone was saying “the halving won’t help” and “institutions have stopped buying.” And then?
It went from $3,800 to $69,000.
When the macro picture is at its worst, that’s often when coins are cheapest. You think you’re avoiding risk, but you’re actually handing your coins to someone else.
The day $2,500 breaks through, you’ll realize—
ETH wasn’t the problem. You’re the one who keeps selling right before the rally. #美国9月PPI大超预期 #GateWCTCS9全球交易赛 #Gate两大币种合约成交额跻全球前三 $BTC $ETH $SOL

$ETH ‌ is looking a bit weak here.
• Lost the $2,550 level
• Trading back below the April highs
• $2,450 is now the key level to watch
If Ethereum fails to close the week above $2,450, another flush could be on the table.
Watching the weekly close closely. 👀
#USSeptemberPPIBeatsExpectations
#GateWCTCS9GlobalTradingCompetition
#GateBTCAndETHFuturesVolumeRanksTop3

$ETH is looking a bit weak here.
• Lost the $2,550 level
• Trading back below the April highs
• $2,450 is now the key level to watch
If Ethereum fails to close the week above $2,450, another flush could be on the table.
Watching the weekly close closely. 👀

NEAR at $5.1, up 100%—would you still dare to chase it?
It doubled in 30 days, an ETF has launched, and Intents has processed over $33 billion—but the price is stuck around $5.1, unable to move either way, and has edged down slightly over the past 24 hours. Is this the last struggle before selling at the highs, or the final shakeout before breaking through $6?
First, the surface picture: good news is out, but the price isn't rising.
NEAR is currently trading in a $5.05-$5.15 range, down 1-2% over 24 hours. It hit an intraday low of $4.92 and a high of $5.36. It gained 100%+ in 30 days, with an even more dramatic year-to-date gain. The charts show bullish alignment on the daily and weekly timeframes, with the price above major moving averages. RSI is neutral at 55-56—all indicators are saying one thing: the trend is intact, but a shakeout is due.
But wait.
Have you ever wondered—
Bitwise's spot NEAR ETF has already launched, with cumulative net inflows of $80 million. So why can't the price break through $5.36?
First thing: The ETF is buying, but who's selling?
The Bitwise spot NEAR ETF (NRR) has seen continuous net inflows since launch, with assets reaching around $80 million. It has continued to see positive daily inflows recently. This is a genuine institutional channel.
But look at the market—
At $5.25-$5.36, every attempt to reach the 24-hour high gets slammed back down. Who's selling?
The answer is simple: holders taking profits after a 100% gain in 30 days.
Those who bought the dip at $2.5 are now sitting on 100% gains and have every reason to take profits. The ETF buys a few million a day, while profit-takers sell tens of millions a day—that's why the price is stuck around $5.1, unable to move either way.
A 100% gain isn't the risk. Not understanding who's selling after a 100% gain is the risk.
Second thing: NEAR's narrative has changed, but 99% of people haven't figured it out
Do you think NEAR is still just a "sharded public blockchain"?
Wrong.
NEAR's core narrative now is a cross-chain intent layer + AI/privacy-computing infrastructure.
In plain English:
NEAR Intents: Cumulative processing volume has exceeded $33 billion, and the previous exploit has been fully recovered from and the system restored. This isn't vaporware—real transactions worth real money are flowing through it.
Chain Signatures: The MPC network has expanded to 17 independent mainnet operators, and together with the HSP-007 governance plan, decentralization and security have both stepped up a level.
Issuance rate reduction proposal: The maximum annual issuance rate would gradually fall from 2.5% to 1.6% over 24 months. This is a real boost on the supply side—less selling pressure and a scarcer token.
Shift in value capture: The focus is shifting from traditional DeFi TVL to Intents transaction volume and cross-chain usage, which has already begun generating revenue that is being used for buybacks.
The market is still valuing NEAR as an "old-school public blockchain," but its revenue sources have moved to a different track.
Third thing: There's a technical level you "must keep a close eye on"
First, the positives:
The bullish daily and weekly structures are intact, with the price above major moving averages. The weekly chart shows signs of breaking out of a multi-year descending channel. RSI is neutral at 55-56, neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for further upside.
Now, the key levels:
$5.00-$4.95 is the first support and the dividing line between bulls and bears.
If $5.0 holds: consolidation at the highs, building momentum to break through $5.36-$5.40, with targets of $5.55-$5.60, then $6.0.
If it breaks below $4.90 and fails to recover by the daily close: the bullish structure weakens, with $4.70-$4.50 next.
The $5.0 level is NEAR's "line between life and death."
The bull-bear showdown—judge for yourself
On one side:
Bitwise ETF continues to see net inflows; the institutional channel is open
Intents processing volume exceeds $33 billion, with real revenue flowing in
Issuance rate drops from 2.5% to 1.6%, a positive for supply
Bullish alignment on the daily and weekly charts; the trend is intact
Up 100% in 30 days, with momentum still going
On the other:
Huge profit-taking overhang; repeated resistance at $5.36
BTC is ranging between $81,000 and $82k, with the broader market direction unclear
If BTC falls below $80k, NEAR will follow
If ETF inflows slow, short-term pressure will build
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Wait for a pullback near $5.00-$4.95 to buy lightly, with a stop-loss below $4.80 (exit if it breaks $4.85). Go long after a breakout and hold above $5.36-$5.40 (ideally on strong volume), with targets of $5.55-$5.60, then $6.0. If you chase at $5.1, you may not be able to stomach a pullback to $4.9.
Swing traders:
Build a position in stages around $5.0, keeping it to 10-20% of your portfolio. Hold as long as $5.0 holds; reduce your position and wait on the sidelines if it breaks below $4.90 and fails to recover by the daily close. Target $6.0, then reassess if it breaks through.
Long-term believers:
NEAR's narrative—cross-chain intents + AI/privacy computing—stands out in the current market. Lower issuance + ETF access + real Intents revenue make for a sound medium- to long-term thesis. Dollar-cost average in the $4.5-$5.0 range and hold for 6-12 months, betting on sustained ETF inflows + supply contraction + a revaluation of the narrative.
NEAR now feels like SOL at the end of 2023—
Everyone was saying, "It's gone up too much; I don't dare chase it," and then it went from 20 to 200.
For a coin that's up 100%, the biggest risk isn't a pullback—it's missing the next 100% because you think it's "gone up too much."#美国9月PPI大超预期 #GateWCTCS9全球交易赛 #Gate两大币种合约成交额跻全球前三 $BTC $ETH $NEAR

BTC at $81,700—can you still hold?
Down 35% from ATH, with ETFs seeing consecutive outflows and everyone shouting “the bull market is over”—but just now, the price is holding firmly at $81,700, right at institutions’ ETF cost basis. Is this the last chance to escape, or are institutions defending the price?
First, the surface picture: bad news keeps coming, but the price hasn’t collapsed.
Down slightly over 24 hours, trading between $80,800 and $82,800. It has pulled back 35% from its October 2025 ATH of $126,000. ETFs saw net outflows of $500-600 million in October, led by IBIT and FBTC. Macroeconomically, September CPI came in hot at 3.7%, and the 10-year Treasury yield is elevated at 5.2%. The FOMC will most likely pause on October 27-28, but the odds of a December rate hike remain high. The candlestick chart tells you this: the price is holding above support at $80,800-$81,000, and the RSI is neutral to weak—not oversold. Every indicator is saying one thing: range-bound trading, waiting for direction.
But wait.
Have you noticed something strange—there’s so much bad news, so why hasn’t BTC fallen below $80,000?
First: $81,700 isn’t just an ordinary price. It’s institutions’ “line in the sand”
Glassnode data: BTC’s ETF cost basis is around $81,500, while the True Market Mean is about $78,000.
The price is now at $81,700, just $200 above the ETF cost basis.
In plain English:
Institutions that bought through ETFs have an average cost basis of $81,500.
If the price falls another $200, all ETF holders will be sitting on unrealized losses.
What do unrealized losses trigger? Redemptions. What do redemptions trigger? Selling. What does selling trigger? You tell me.
So $81,700 isn’t a technical level; it’s a psychological line of defense.
The bulls are holding on for dear life, because if this level breaks, $80,000 is the next psychological level, and below that, $78,000 is the True Market Mean—the “last line of faith.”
The market never bottoms when everyone is ready. It keeps grinding away at the most painful levels until you hand over your coins.
Second: above us is a “mountain of bagholders,” with every step up facing selling from people looking to break even
Don’t just look below; looking up is even more painful.
Glassnode data:
The cost basis for 6-12-month buyers is around $88,000
The cost basis for 1-2-year buyers is close to $100,000
Recent buyers have an even higher cost basis, creating a dense supply wall
What does this mean?
As the price rises from $81,700, there are recent bagholders at $83,500, a strong supply wall at $85,000-$86,000, the breakeven level for six-month buyers at $88,000, and the “break-even line” for two-year bagholders at $100,000.
At every step up, someone says, “Finally back to breakeven—time to get out.”
That’s why BTC keeps grinding in the $80,000 range—those above want to break even, those below want to buy the dip, and those in between are just hanging on.
A bull market doesn’t mean there are no bagholders; it means successive waves of buying absorb their supply. The question now is: is there enough buying?
Third: ETF flows are the real “market maker” for BTC in 2026
Before, people watched on-chain data, miners, and whales.
Now? They watch ETFs.
ETFs saw net outflows of $500-600 million in October, with IBIT and FBTC accounting for most of the recent outflows. September saw strong inflows, but now “fast money” is taking profits and reducing positions.
The painful truth:
ETF flows have replaced on-chain data as the core driver of BTC pricing.
BlackRock’s subscriptions and redemptions can determine the short-term direction more than 10 whale addresses can.
So what you should watch now isn’t the candlestick chart, but IBIT’s net inflow data after the U.S. stock market opens each day.
If ETF flows turn positive, BTC holds above $83,000; if outflows continue, $80,000 won’t hold.
Fourth: the technical picture is a “test of the lower end,” not a “trend reversal”
Support: $80,800-$81,000 (tested multiple times) → $80,000-$80,400 (psychological + technical) → $79,800-$78,000 (True Market Mean)
Resistance: $82,200-$82,500 (short term) → $83,500-$84,000 (recent highs) → $85,000-$86,000 (supply wall)
Structure: After retreating from $86,000, the price has formed a descending/range-bound structure. Buyers have stepped in around $80,000, but each rebound has faced resistance. The moving averages are close to the 50-day average, and the RSI is neutral to weak.
Conclusion: range-bound trading + test of the lower end, not a clear trend.
In plain English:
This is the “grinding it out” phase, not the “charging ahead” phase.
Chasing longs can leave you trapped; chasing shorts can get you squeezed. Selling high and buying low is the way to survive.
The battle between bulls and bears—you decide
On one side:
The price is above the ETF cost basis of $81,500, with institutions defending it
The True Market Mean at $78,000 is strong support; no panic selling has appeared
Long-term holders remain steady, and new capital is still coming in
Fiscal expansion + money supply growth underpin the hard-money narrative
On the other:
ETF outflows of $500-600 million are a real short-term headwind
The area from $88,000 to $100,000 is full of bagholders, with selling pressure at every step up
September CPI came in hot at 3.7%, and the 10-year yield is at 5.2%, weighing on risk appetite
The FOMC meets on October 27-28, and the odds of a December rate hike remain high
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Don’t chase longs around $81,700. Wait for $80,800-$81,000 to stabilize before going long, with a target of $82,200-$83,000 and a stop-loss at $80,400. If $80,000 breaks and the daily candle closes weak, reduce your position or stay lightly positioned while watching $78,500. Funding rates are mildly positive, but don’t chase highs with a large position while ETF flows are negative.
Medium-term players:
Wait on the sidelines or keep positions light. The key is the FOMC outcome and whether ETF flows turn positive. If BTC holds above $83,000-$84,000 and ETF inflows recover, add to longs and target $86,000+; if $80,000 gives way and the macro backdrop is hawkish, wait for signs of a bottom around $78,000.
Long-term believers:
Dollar-cost average in tranches in the $78,000-$80,000 range. 2026 is a year of “high-level consolidation + digestion,” not the start of a new bull-market rally or a deep bear market. The cycle still has room to run, but patience is worth more than courage.
BTC right now is like gold in 2023—
Everyone said, “It’s gone up too much; it’s going to crash,” but central banks and institutions were quietly buying.
The ETF cost basis at $81,500 is this cycle’s equivalent of the “central bank buying price.”
You sell at $81,700 while institutions add at $81,500. The difference isn’t intelligence; it’s patience.
The day $80,000 breaks, you’ll realize—
It’s either the last chance to get on board, or the first bell of a bear market.#美国9月PPI大超预期 #GateWCTCS9全球交易赛 #Gate两大币种合约成交额跻全球前三 $BTC $GT $ETH